MARKET REPORT
Review:
– US PPI rises most since August. Exp +0.3% Act +0.6%
– Energy and food primary drivers
– Core rate (Ex Food and Energy) Exp +0.2% Act +0.3% ALTHOUGH Prev +0.5%
– YoY +1.6% from Jan +0.9% surpassing Exp +1.1%
– US Retail Sales Exp +0.8% Act +0.6%
– Jan upwardly revised (ie lower) to -1.1% fall
– IE STRONGER THAN EXP PRODUCER PRICES AND WEAKER SPENDING
– US Jobless Exp -218k Act -209k
– Atlanta Fed GDP Now cut
– BOE widely expected to maintain rates at 5.25% next Thurs with an August cut priced in. This is later than both the ECB and the Fed which are both expected to do so in June
– ECB dove Stournaras calls says four 2024 cuts seems reasonable
– Continued BoJ source reports around ending NIRP next week
– CAC another record close. Strongest Euro bourse (FTSE & DAX both lower)
– Sat Russia’s Presidential Election (6yr term)
– AAPL buys AI startup DarwinAI
– Dollar up, Gold down, Crude up, Crytpo down, Equities/Treasuries down.
DOLLAR DX: UP: 103.38 +0.6% (102.80 – 103.38) Absolute highs
– AUD DOWN: 65.80 -0.6% (66.30 – 65.72) Lows
– EUR UP: 91.81 +0.6% (91.30 – 91.86) Highs
– GBP down: 127.50 -0.35% (128.22 – 127.33) Lows
– JPY up: 148.26 +0.43% (147.51 – 148.35) Highs
GOLD DOWN: $2167 -0.6% ($2176 – $2157) Mid
DOW/ES/ND DOWN: 38779 -0.75%, 5140 -0.55%, 17978 -0.55%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN: -3390/-5% 69600, -200/-5% 3800
CRUDE UP: $81.07 +1.7%/$1.37 ($79.66 – $81.60) Off highs
Upcoming:
AU: Consumer Inflation Expectations
US Industrial Production (Feb), Import Prices (Feb), and Empire survey (March), Mich Sent
CHI: Retail Sales Sunday
Speakers:
ECB Lane
JAP Rengo
Earnings:
MAJORS:
DX:
The hotter-than-expected PPI, soft US retail sales, and below-consensus initial jobless claims drove the Dollar higher.
PPI added fuel to the fire after the hot CPI figures earlier in the week, while initial jobless claims ticked lower to 209k (exp. 218k, prev. 210k). Following the data, the latest Atlanta Fed GDPnow (Q1) was cut to 2.3% to 2.5%.
UoM Prelim (March) and Empire survey (March) are the highlights on Friday but all attention resides towards Nvidia’s GTC Event, FOMC, and BoJ next week.
DOLLAR DX: UP: 103.38 +0.6% (102.80 – 103.38) Absolute highs
No call
10 –
AUD:
All currencies were down across the board against the Greenback as per reasons above. BoJ Next week with potentially NIRP finishing the focus for the AUD.
AUD DOWN: 65.80 -0.6% (66.30 – 65.72) Lows
No call
6s
GBP
Cable traded between 1.2731-2822, and while there was little new for the Pound, the latest Reuters poll sees BoE cutting rates by 50bps to 4.75% in Q3 (Unch vs. Feb. poll).
GBP down: 127.50 -0.35% (128.22 – 127.33) Lows
No call
12-
EUR
There was a plethora of ECB speak, but the highlight came from dovish Stournaras remarks – said they have to cut rates twice prior to the summer break, that four cuts in 2024 seems reasonable, and ECB needs to begin cutting soon.
EUR UP: 91.81 +0.6% (91.30 – 91.86) Highs
No call
9-
YEN:
Yen saw some strength in the US morning with USD/JPY hitting a low of 147.44 after a JiJi report, continuing the recent trend, noting the BoJ is reportedly arranging to end NIRP at the March gathering with a final decision made after the Rengo numbers, which remain of paramount importance. Regarding timings, Citi says results expected around 16:00-16:15 Tokyo time (+9 GMT) on Friday with the press release starting at 16:15.
JPY up: 148.26 +0.43% (147.51 – 148.35) Highs
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Gold was down on the basis of higher inflation data following on the back of Tues hotter SPI giving cause for nerves about a cut, stickly inflation. Money flows saw out of the precious metals and into the Dollar.
Support on down side at 2150, followed by 2075. Upside previous 2203 close offers res.
Nearby Copper hits an 11month high.
Silver is underperforming. The avg SI price on previous Gold peak days is $28. The GC/SI ratio is $67.60 (22% below current levels.) Translated: with GC at $2170 SI should be at $32/oz!
So if youre Bullish metals. That’s where the value is.
GOLD DOWN: $2167 -0.6% ($2176 – $2157) Mid
Rangey with possible more down-side. 2150/2200 are firm for the Immediate.
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.29% 5,150
– NDX -0.30% 18,014
– DJIA -0.35% 38,905
– RUT -1.96% 2,031
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.11% 17,922.45
– FTSE: -0.37% 7,743.15
– CAC: +0.29% 8,161.42
– ES50: -0.13% 4,993.85
SECTORS (S to W): Real Estate -1.61%, Utilities -0.81%, Consumer Staples -0.78%, Financials -0.71%, Materials -0.55%, Consumer Discretionary -0.43%, Health -0.43%, Industrials -0.43%, Technology -0.11%, Communication Services +0.55%, Energy +1.1%.
STOCKS
– Apple: Buys AI startup DarwinAI as part of race to add features; has added dozens of DarwinAI staff to its AI division, according to Bloomberg. In other news, supplier Foxconn saw profits jump +33% Y/Y in Q4, topping expectations. The beat was driven by demand for AI servers, and strong holiday sales. While it forecast a slow start to 2024, it sees ending the year with a significant revenue increase.
– Intel, Qualcomm and Google say they plan to battle Nvidia AI software dominance through UXL Foundation, via Reuters citing sources. To prepare tech specs for software in H1’24.
– Under Armour -11%: Founder of the Co. Kevin Plank will assume the roles of President and CEO from April 1st, succeeding Stephanie Linnartz.
– Fisker -53.5%: EV startup faces potential bankruptcy due to sluggish sales in the US.
– Dick’s Sporting Goods +15%: EPS, revenue, and gross margin beat alongside raising annual dividend 10%.
– Robinhood +4.5%: Said its equity trading volumes in February rose 41% Y/Y.
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 1.54 HIGHER AT 81.26/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 1.39 HIGHER AT 85.42/BBL
Oil prices rallied further on Thursday despite the rallying Dollar and soft retail sales figures as momentum picked up amid the breakout to multi-month highs. WTI and Brent futures gained through the session and settled just off their peaks of USD 81.62/bbl and 85.67/bbl, respectively, the highest levels seen since November for the front-month futures. There wasn’t any major catalyst to explain the latest rally, although we did get the IEA’s monthly report, which raised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 110k BPD to 1.3mln BPD, saying that if OPEC+ voluntary cuts remain in place through 2024, it sees the market in a slight deficit rather than a surplus. The recovery in energy prices through this year was reflected in the latest US PPI figures for February, where energy prices drove a big beat on the headline figure, and this further bout of strength into March will only maintain that inflationary bias. Elsewhere on Thursday, Russia’s Energy Ministry said, via Interfax, that it expects Russian crude oil exports to rise due to unplanned maintenance at refineries; that follows Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refinery facilities earlier in the week. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE UP: $81.07 +1.7%/$1.37 ($79.66 – $81.60) Off highs
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.365 -0.001
US 6-MO 5.382 -0.001
US 1-YR 5.067 +0.037
US 5-YR 4.292 +0.106
US 10-YR 4.292 +0.1
US 30-YR 4.433 +0.084
2YR/10YR -0.40
CRYPTO
– Dogecoin jumps as Musk hints at form of payment
– Aprils halving: A new all-time high has followed all 4 halvings
– A portion of fees paid by user’s for using ETH goes towards burning tokens. Similar to a share buyback. The more active the network, the higher the burn.
Since Sep 22 ETH supply has DECREASED by 430,000 coins ($1.7B) vs BTC increased by 490k coins ($35B).
ETH ETF SEC decision May 23rd deadline.
During past cycles ETH has strengthened against BTC hitting highs of 0.15 and 0.09 respectively in 2017 and 2019. Current ratio of 0.056 is only slightly above its 3yr low. Assuming $100k for BTC that would place ETH at $14750 (Using May 2017 ratio) and $8,800 (Using 2021’s high)
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN: -3390/-5% 69600, -200/-5% 3800
Feel a retrace to 60k on cards. Betting 60 pre 80. Had 73.5k+ the other day as a sell, still hold same opine.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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