Market in Review 23/2/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Dollar finishes down on week. 1st of 2024
– Best week for Bullion in 2024
– NVIDIA reaches 2T in mkt cap.
– Fed: Waller was hawkish, Cook and Williams towed the usual Fed line
– JPM’s Dimon sells 822kk shares (around $150m)
– US unveil 500 more Russian sanctions on 2yr anniversary of war
– Warner Bros Discovery -10%
– Treasury Yields down (long end)
– Overall quiet & unremarkable session

DOLLAR DX: UNCH:
– AUD UNCH: 65.53                        UNCH (65.52 – 65.82) close off lows
– EUR UNCH: 92.38                         UNCH (92.24 – 92.46) close off highs
– GBP UNCH: 126.70                       UNCH (126.50 – 127.00) close mid rge
– JPY UNCH: 150.49                         UNCH (150.30 – 150.75) close mid rge

GOLD up:                                          $2047 +0.8% ($2025.50 – $2051) close off highs
DOW/ES/ND:                                    39200 +0.2%, 5100 UNCH, 17985 -0.3%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH:                          -615/-1.2% 51050, -50/-1.6% 2942
CRUDE DOWN:                                $76.69 -2.4% ($78.22 – $76.36) close on lows

Upcoming:

US: New Home Sales
JP: Inflation

Week Ahead:

US: PCE Price Indexes, Personal Income & Spending, ISM PMI, 2nd GDP, Durable Goods
AU/JP/EZ; Inflation rates
CH: Manufacturing
NZ: IR Dec
DE/JP/EZ: Unemployment.

Speakers:

BoE: Breeden, Pill

Earnings:

MAJORS:

DX: 
Dollar saw two-way price action on Friday but ultimately ended the day flat.
Fed speak saw Waller lean hawkish overnight really stressing that the Fed have to be patient and more data is needed before acting. Cook also stressed the need for patience. Williams said that rate hikes are not his base case but the Fed would have to rethink the outlook if inflation progress stalled, also noted the economy has not changed after the January data and things are moving in the right direction

No call

1 –

AUD:
A muted See-Saw rangey session saw limited Vol and finished unchanged.
AUD UNCH: 65.53                           UNCH (65.52 – 65.82) close off lows

No call

6-

GBP:
A 50 point range saw early session strength fade into the afternoon
GBP UNCH: 126.70                         UNCH (126.50 – 127.00) close mid rge

No call

12-

EUR
Saw little noteworthy price action despite several ECB speakers and a couple of data points. On the former, President Lagarde acknowledged the Q4 wage numbers were encouraging but that she needs to be more confident that disinflation is sustainable. Holzmann said the main risk to rate cuts is Red Sea tensions, noting it is better to cut later and faster than too early. Nagel also said it is too early to cut rates, noting they will get a key pressure in Q2, then the ECB can contemplate cuts; Nagel favours a gradual process. Simkus said a March cut is out of the question, while April is unlikely. Muller said it would be a mistake to act too soon and have to correct. Meanwhile, EZ consumer inflation expectations rose for the 1yr ahead but were unchanged at 2.5% for the 3yr ahead forecast. German IFO saw a marginal beat on current conditions and expectations.
EUR UNCH: 92.38                            UNCH (92.24 – 92.46) close off highs

No call

9-

YEN:
Early strength fades throughout the session. From 150.75 – to 150.30 to close 150.50. Lacklustre Yields (Treasuries) helped the Yen firm. But nothing of note.
JPY UNCH: 150.49                           UNCH (150.30 – 150.75) close mid rge

No call

1

GOLD & SILVER:

Gold and SI both steadily group higher throughout the session both closing up 0.77% on a weekend bid.
GOLD up:                                          $2047 +0.8% ($2025.50 – $2051) close off highs

No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.03% 5,088
– NDX -0.37% 17,937
– DJIA +0.16% 39,131
– RUT +0.14% 2,016

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.28% 17,419.33
– FTSE 100: +0.28% 7,706.28
– CAC 40: +0.70% 7,966.68
– Euro Stoxx 50: +0.35% 4,872.25

SECTORS (W to S): Utilities +0.71%, Materials +0.58%, Industrials +0.5%, Health +0.45%, Financials +0.33%, Consumer Staples +0.3%, Real Estate +0.1%, Communication Services -0.21%, Technology -0.27%, Consumer Discretionary -0.34%, Energy -0.58%.

STOCKS:
Warner Bros Discovery -10%: Deeper loss per share than expected in addition to missing on EPS and adj. EBITDA. In commentary, said quarterly TV revenue declined significantly mainly due to the impact of WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes and some large licensing deals in the prior year.
Carvana +32%: Posted its first-ever profit and guided for stronger-than-expected earnings in its current quarter. Following earnings, was upgraded at William Blair and Raymond James.

OIL
:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 2.12 LOWER AT 76.49/BBL; BRENT (J4) SETTLED USD 2.05 LOWER AT 81.62/BBL

WTI and Brent ended the day, and week, on the back foot despite a lack of fresh or clear fundamental drivers. Oil saw gradual losses throughout the NY session amid choppy sentiment, with WTI and Brent hitting lows of USD 76.35/bbl and 83.48/bbl, respectively. In terms of updates, the Paris hostage talks have commenced with the participation of Egypt, Qatar, America and Israel, but there doesn’t seem to be much reason for optimism, according to journalists. Meanwhile, BP (BP/ LN) noted they are continuing the phased restart of Whiting, Indiana refinery (440k BPD). Elsewhere, according to Bloomberg, OPEC-watchers predict an extension of oil cuts into the next quarter. Note, in the EU morning, Reuters sources stated that QatarEnergy is due to make an announcement on Sunday that will have “a significant impact” on the industry. Lastly, Baker Hughes oil rigs were up 6 to 503, natgas down 1 to 120, leaving the total +5 to 626. Oil report courtesy of newsquark

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.398 +0.007 US 6-MO 5.351 UNCH US 1-YR 5.006 -0.009 US 5-YR 4.278 -0.053 US 10-YR 4.248 -0.079 US 30-YR 4.366 -0.096
2YR/10YR -0.44

CRYPTO:
Very muted BTC session with a range from 51200 down to 50650 closing 51050. Nothing to remark.
A similar story with ETH failing to hold above the 3k handle overnight and trading from 2960 to 2910 to rally and close off highs.

No Call.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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