Calendar Week 40 – 2021

With the Loonie on the charge higher thanks to the current energy crisis impacting oil prices, we do not see the jobs data having too much of an impact tonight. That said, most CAD crosses are well out there at the exhaustion end of their run, so a surprise figure could see a quick snap back to the averages.

The US Payrolls headline is looking for a +490,000 jobs added with the unemployment rate to sink to 5.1%. With the weekly ADP figures out just 2 days ago surprising to the upside it is almost a forgone conclusion that the NFP tonight will be a positive figure. Anything over +400K should see continued strength in the Greenback as the larger focus is that the US Fed will be tapering in November. The Fed will mostly ignore the NFP even if it comes in anywhere under +250K and still be looking to taper their QE program. The USD will get hit if it is a weaker number than +250, but it wont last long. This week has seen the USD a little weaker thank to the uncertainty around the US debt ceiling, but the predominant trend for the USD is dollar strength, and that should continue past NFP tonight.