MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Fed’s Barkin “take our time” on rate cuts
– Telsa resume Giga Berlin production
– NYCB see-saw session
– Senate advances Defence Aid Bill. 63B for Ukraine, 14b Israel, 5B Taiwan.
– Weekly Jobless Inline
– 30yr Mortgage rate back to 6.64% after touching 7% earlier this week.
– Dovish BoJ speak
– Disney surges 12%
– Dollar gives up early strength
– Gold makes back early losses
– Equities flat
– BTC up, ETH continues to underperform
– Crude +3.5%
DOLLAR DX: Flat:
– AUD down: 64.92 -0.4% (65.27 – 64.82) close off lows
– EUR UNCH: 92.76 UNCH (92.68 – 93.07) close off lows
– GPB UNCH: 126.18 UNCH (126.32 – 125.77) close upper mid
– JPY up: 149.35 +0.9% (148.60 – 149.48) close off highs
GOLD UNCH: $2048 UNCH ($2052 – $2035) close off highs
DOW/ES/ND UNCH: 38795 UNCH, 5015 UNCH, 17875 +0.15% close off highs
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up/flat: +1300/+3% 45450, UNCH 2425 close highs/lows
CRUDE up: $76.50 +$2.5/+3.5% close absolute highs
Upcoming:
US CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions!
CAD employment
Speakers:
RBA Bullock
ECB Cipollone
Fed Logan
Earnings: Pinterest Motorola post closing Bell
Tom: Pepsi
MAJORS:
DX:
Info which may assist The Fed’s guide on Inflationary projections will come Friday when the US Bureau of Labour Statistics publishes revised inflation statistics for 2023.
The updated CPI data will be released at 8.30am with new inflation data for January following next week. The Fed uses a sperate measure to set its 2% target – The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index but as the two overlap, tomorrows data will be watched. If inflation is revised higher than expected, this would pose a clear pothole for substantative cuts and their early timing, if however it shows a lowering faster than thought, Mar could be back on the table.
No call
10-
AUD:
“Choppy trading around the figure to continue.”
Yest Mkt Report. We went from 20 pips over the figure to 20 below before effectively closing at.
As I write above upcoming inflation revision data for 2023 should set the immediate tone for the Buck (and hence the Battler)
No call
6-
EUR:
We saw Dollar strength into the open fade throughout the course of the afternoon session as The Euro went from 92.70 to 93.10 to close back at 92.70.
ECB speak saw Wunsch state he sees indications that wage growth is softening, that there is value in waiting to get more in-line data, stating that wage rises are holding up rate cuts.
Holzmann stated there is a certain chance the ECB will not cut rates this year.
Chief Economist Lane stressed data dependence once again while noting that many wage agreements will be renewed in the early months of 2024, indicating wants to view data before cutting rates; the data is due after the April ECB decision.
Markets currently price a 52% probability of a 25bp cut in April.
No call
9-
POUND:
USD was stronger against the Pound early but gave it back into the afternoon. We went from 126.30 to 125.75 and retraced all the way to 126.20 to close.
BoE Hawk Mann said she cannot say if there will be rate cuts this year, noting it is unclear right now what could persuade her to vote to cut rates. However, a durable drop in services inflation could persuade her to vote to hold rates.
No call
1-
YEN:
Dovish BoJ as Deputy Governor Uchida said the BoJ will not aggressively hike rates, even after ending NIRP, seeing participants dial back speculation of continued rate hikes from the BoJ.
No call
1-
GOLD & SILVER:
Gold traded down to 2035 on dollar strength, then retook losses as the dollar paired. SI re-gained previous sessions under-performance up 1.15% to golds flat on day.
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.06% 4,997
– NDX +0.16% 17,783
– DJIA +0.13% 38,726
– RUT +1.50% 1,979
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.25% 16,963.83
– FTSE: -0.44% 7,595.48
– CAC: +0.71% 7,665.63
– ES50: +0.65% 4,709.25
SECTORS (S to W): Energy +1.09%, Real Estate +0.56%, Communication Services +0.39%, Consumer Discretionary +0.29%, Technology +0.14%, Industrials +0.05%, Consumer Staples -0.04%, Health -0.17%, Materials -0.18%, Financials -0.48%, Utilities -0.83%
STOCKS:
– Disney +11.5%: Profit topped, boosted cash dividend 50%, FY EPS view better-than-expected and is to invest USD 1.5bln in Epic Games.
– PayPal -11%: FY adj. EPS view underwhelmed.
– Ralph Lauren +17% earnings impressed.
– Philip Morris -2.5%: EPS missed with FY profit guide short.
– Wynn +6%
– Allstate +2% & Globe Life +2% beat on Q4 metrics
– Spirit Airlines +3.5%: Working with advisers to address its debt maturities
OIL:
WTI (H4) SETTLED USD 2.36 HIGHER AT 76.22/BBL; BRENT (J4) SETTLED USD 2.42 HIGHER AT 81.63/BBL
The crude complex saw strong gains on Thursday amid broadening concerns of a widening Middle East conflict as Israel and Hamas have yet to come to a ceasefire agreement. Outside of geopols, fresh fundamental newsflow was thin, and in spite of the recovery in the Buck, WTI and Brent rose throughout the US session to settle at highs. For the record, BP (BP/ LN) stated it is making progress on restoring Whiting, Indiana refinery (435k BPD) to normal operations, and Iraq sets March Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at USD -0.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai average; Europe: USD -5.54/bbl vs dated Brent, and North & South America: USD -1/bbl. In the US, in fitting with prior plans, the US DoE announced it is looking to buy 3mln bbls of oil for the SPR for July delivery. Looking ahead, participants await CPI Revisions and the weekly Baker Hughes rig count on Friday.
EARNINGS: ConocoPhillips (COP) beat on profit and adj. net income, and in terms of production guidance, sees 2024 between 1.91-1.95 MBOED and Q1 1.88-1.92 MBOED, with the latter including 20k BPD headwind from Jan. weather impacts. Oil report courtesy of newsquark
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.375 -0.006 US 6-MO 5.276 +0.023 US 1-YR 4.856 +0.024 US 5-YR 4.121 +0.062 US 10-YR 4.158 +0.060 US 30-YR 4.356 +0.047
2YR/10YR -0.30
CRYPTO:
Carry over consolidation pushed BTC to to mid 45k mark whilst early ETH enthusiasm left the 2nd tier coin paring its gains to close flat.
BTC back to outperforming ETH now. That’s the trade ID be looking at putting on at good levels.
Further strength expected. Cant see a reason for a pause here. Trade with caution as timing, per usual, tricky.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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