MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Another record day of BTC ETF inflows
– Bridgewater Dalio calls Mag 7 ‘a bit frothy’
– Cocoa sees biggest monthly gain in 22 years.
– M/E Tensions rise on Israel/Gaza food stampede deaths
– Core PCE prices +0.4% from Jan, sharpest rise in 1yr. Concerns slowing Disinflation.
– Unemployment claims highest in 3 months, points to some labour softening.
– Surprise Chicago PMI fall
– Soft Pending home sales
– Hawkish BoJ commentary
– Mixed EZ inflation figures
– Fed speakers stick to the script
– AI stocks soaring (SoundHoud, AMD, NVIDIA, Broadcom)
– Dollar, Gold, Equities up, Treasuries down
– BTC up but dumps in afternoon
PRICING 3PM EST (1hr Pre Close)
DOLLAR DX: up small: 104.10 +0.18% (103.60 – 104.13) Highs
– AUD UNCH: 64.95 UNCH (65.31 – 64.89) Lows
– EUR up: 92.53 +0.33% (92.10 – 92.60) Off highs
– GBP Down: 126.14 -0.35% (126.80 – 126.14) Lows
– JPY Down: 149.92 -0.47% (150.15 – 149.24) Off highs
GOLD Up: $2052 +0.5% ($2036 – $2059) Mid to high
DOW/ES/ND: 38950 UNCH, 5095 +0.3%, 18040 +0.7%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +1335/+2.25% 61750, +130/+4% 3405
CRUDE down: $78.06 -0.6% ($79.25- $78.00) Off lows
Upcoming:
JAP Unemployment
CHI Manufacturing
JAP Consumer Confidence
EUR Inflation
ITA GDP, Inflation
US ISM, Michigan Sentiment,
Speakers:
BoE: Pill
Fed: Bositc, Logan, Waller, Daly, Kulger
Earnings: Daimler Truck, Rightmove, Pearson.
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar saw two-way price action and initially sold off in wake of the in-line PCE, rising jobless claims, a miss in Chicago PMI and a miss in Pending Home sales. DXY hit a low of 103.65 just after the housing data before reversing higher to peaks of 104.20 a few hours later with the upside coinciding with some weakness in equities and coming off highs.
DOLLAR DX: up small: 104.10 +0.18% (103.60 – 104.13) Highs
No call
1 –
AUD:
AUD price action mimicked the Kiwi with soft Aussie retail sales having little impact but AUD managed to finish the day flat vs. the Greenback.
AUD UNCH: 64.95 UNCH (65.31 – 64.89) Lows
No call
6-
GBP:
Pound saw weakness vs. the Buck but was flat vs. the Euro in quiet trade. The only real update was the next BoE Deputy Governor announcement, Clare Lombardelli, who apparently leans hawkish.
GBP Down: 126.14 -0.35% (126.80 – 126.14) Lows
No call
12-
EUR
Euro was ultimately weaker vs. the Dollar amid the slew of EZ and US data. EZ inflation was on net, mixed, with inflation in France and Spain hotter than forecasts but Germany was in line on the HICP but softer than expected on CPI. Attention will be on the national prints released on Friday.
EUR up: 92.53 +0.33% (92.10 – 92.60) Off highs
No call
9-
YEN:
Yen saw decent gains supported by the initial dollar weakness and hawkish BoJ commentary overnight. USD/JPY fell sub 150 overnight, before rising back above it, but once the PCE numbers hit the level was taken out once again to see USD/JPY hit a low of 149.22. As the Dollar recouped ground, however, the Yen gains eased albeit it looks set to head into APAC trade sub 150 at pixel time.
JPY Down: 149.92 -0.47% (150.15 – 149.24) Off highs
No call Pre JAP Data
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Gold Firmed despite a firmer Dollar. The Market, unlike Dollar traders took a weaker PCE as food for a June Hold. The Yellow metal bought over the number and settled there. SI outperformed closing above the psychological $23 handle. +1%
GOLD Up: $2052 +0.5% ($2036 – $2059) Mid to high
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.52% 5,096
– NDX +0.95% 18,043
– DJIA +0.12% 38,996
– RUT +0.71% 2,054.
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.44% 17,678.19
– FTSE: +0.07% 7,630.02
– CAC: -0.34% 7,927.43
– ES50: -0.10% 4,878.95
SECTORS (S to W): Technology +1.3%, Communication Services +1.27%, Consumer Discretionary +0.97%, Real Estate +0.91%, Materials +0.82%, Energy +0.43%, Industrials +0.4%, Utilities +0.09%, Financials +0.06%, Consumer Staples -0.27%, Health -0.68%.
STOCKS:
– C3.ai +25%: Shallower loss per share than expected and beat on revenue. FY revenue outlook surpassed expectations.
– Alibaba -1%: Cloud unit has cut prices by an average 20%, and by as much as 55% on a wide range of core cloud products.
– Boeing -1.5%: DoJ will probe Boeing’s recent midair door blowout.
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 0.28 LOWER AT 78.26/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 0.24 LOWER AT 81.91/BBL
The crude complex was choppy on Thursday, but sold off into settlement to end slightly in the red as a firmer Dollar and continued heightened geopolitical worries cancelled each other out for the large part. Fresh oil newsflow was light with specific drivers limited, although there were some punchy remarks from Russian President Putin in the EU morning, despite no reaction, as he said “don’t they understand there is danger of nuclear conflict?” and on talk of NATO troops in Ukraine, stated consequences for the intruders will be more tragic and that Russia has weapons which can hit targets on their territory. Regarding prices, in the EU morning WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 77.95/bbl and 81.51/bbl, respectively, before retracing to highs of 79.28/bbl and 82.84 in the NY afternoon. Elsewhere, according to a Reuters survey, OPEC February oil output rose by 900k BPD from January to 26.42mln BPD as Libyan output recovers from outage. Meanwhile. OPEC’s nine members making voluntary cuts or subject to quotas reduced output by 20k BPD vs. Jan. to 21.43mln BPD. Looking to Friday, ISM Mfg. PMI, EZ inflation data, a slew of Fed speak and the weekly Baker Hughes rig count are the highlights.Oil report courtesy of newsquark
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.401 +0.007 US 6-MO 5.32 -0.009 US 1-YR 5.012 +0.002 US 5-YR 4.25 -0.023 US 10-YR 4.244 -0.03 US 30-YR 4.364 -0.046
2YR/10YR -0.39
CRYPTO:
Crypto is the best asset class this year. Surging 40%, Driven mainly by the ETF legalisations. Today we had a new record influx of ETF funds with BlackRocks ETF’s took in $612m.
Blackrocks ETF IBIT is nearing $10BILLION asset mark, in just SEVEN weeks. The fastest growth of an ETF EVER.
No short term call. Could snowball with FOMO vs an overdue correction. The timeframe of each is undecided. As with the markets. A 3/4k retrace (8%)….. is now, unsurprising.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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