Market in Review 2/22/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Equities (lead by NQ) surge as NVIDIA fires up AI Mania
– NVIDIA +15% to $777 (prev close $680)
– Rivian drops 25% on outlook, layoffs, dwindling cash
– Fed (Philly/non-voter) Harker, a rate cut is the next step in monetary policy. No indication of when
– Iran Election.
– Russia votes in Mar
– Existing Home Sales +3.1% MoM to 4mill for Jan (highest 5 months) vs 3.88m in Dec (Forecast 3.97m)
– US Manufacturing PMI hits highest in 17 months
– Stronger than expected Oil storage build
– Early Dollar sell-off retraces to close UNCH, Gold UNCH, ETH up 4%
– Treasuries flatten

DOLLAR DX: UNCH:
– AUD UNCH: 65.55                        UNCH (65.97 – 65.41) close off lows
– EUR UNCH: 92.40                         UNCH (91.84 – 92.52) close off highs
– GBP up small: 126.61                  +0.2% (127.07 – 126.13) close mid rge
– JPY up small: 150.51                    +0.1% (150.01 – 150.67) close off highs

GOLD UNCH:                                   $2033 UNCH (N/A) N/A
DOW/ES/ND:                                    39123 +1.15%, 5099 +2%, 18060 +3%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH:                          +1111/+2% 52000, +110/+3.75% 3012
CRUDE up small:                              $78.47 +0.7% (N/A) N/A

Upcoming:

DE: IFO, GDP
JAP: Holiday
CHI: House Prices

Speakers:
EA: Schnabel, Jocknick

Earnings:

MAJORS:

DX:  
Dollar was ultimately flat on PMI day with DXY printing a low in the European morning of 103.43 before paring throughout the session to a peak of 104.13 in wake of the US data. Jobless claims came in beneath analyst expectations, resulting in a drop in the 4wk average in a sign of a still tight labour market in the week that coincides with the NFP survey period. Meanwhile, the Flash February PMIs from S&P Global saw the composite ease with a fall in Services but a rise in Manufacturing, however, the inflation commentary was promising. DXY meandered throughout the rest of the session to end the US session just beneath 104. Fed Speak largely stuck to the script on Thursday with Vice Chair Jefferson calling for caution on cutting rates too soon.

No call

1 –

AUD:
AUD saw notable strength throughout the European session with gains tracking the upside in the equity space in wake of the strong NVDA earnings. Finished flat however as the Dollar staged a reversal after the strong jobless claims data.

No call

6-

GBP:
Flash PMI saw a miss in manufacturing but beat in services, taking the composite to 53.3 from 52.9, above the forecast of 52.9. Before the data, BoE’s Greene said the tick-up in PMI data offers some grounds for optimism on 2024 growth, although she needs to see more evidence that UK inflation is not entrenched before she votes for a cut.

No call

12-

EUR
EUR/USD hit a high in the wake of the stronger-than-expected French PMI data but pared the gains on weak German PMI data. However, the overall EU composite PMI ticked up to 48.9 from 47.9, above the 48.5 forecast, although note the inflationary gauges saw little improvement. The ECB minutes had little impact, where it confirmed that there was a broad consensus among members that it was premature to discuss rate cuts at present.

9-

YEN:
Yen was softer vs the Dollar with USD/JPY rising from lows of 150.02 to highs of 150.68, with the pair residing around 150 heading into APAC trade. BoJ Governor Ueda said that Japan’s trend inflation is heightening and will make appropriate monetary policy decisions, adding that service prices continue to rise moderately. There were also remarks from a former BoJ policymaker Sakurai said the BoJ could end negative rates in March if this year’s pay hikes exceed 4%, although there’s an equal chance it may wait until April, according to Reuters. Separately, analysts at Rabobank revised their USD/JPY forecast. They now see USD/JPY at 140 on a 12-month view vs the 135 forecast previously. Shorter term, Rabo expects the November high just below 152 to act as strong resistance as the market approaches the March and April BoJ policy meetings.

No call

1

GOLD & SILVER:

Gold Data unavailable.
Finished unchanged, although worth noting Precious metals stocks down 2-3%

No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +2.11% 5,087
– NDX +3.01% 18,005
– DJI +1.18% 39,069
– RUT +0.96% 2,014

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +1.47% 17,370.45
– FTSE: +0.29% 7,684.49
– CAC: +1.27% 7,911.60
– ES 50: +1.69% 4,855.85

SECTORS (W to S): Technology surged by +4.35%, Consumer Discretionary increased by +2.19%, Communication Services rose by +1.61%, Financials gained +1.33%, Industrials went up by +1.21%, Health improved by +1.21%, Materials grew by +0.96%, Consumer Staples saw a modest rise of +0.37%, Real Estate edged up by +0.24%, Energy slightly increased by +0.12%, while Utilities experienced a decline of -0.77%.

STOCKS:
NVIDIA +16%: Earnings impressed, despite lofty expectations, and many sell-side brokers have since upgraded PTs. All major metrics beat, it raised the next quarter revenue outlook alongside very welcoming commentary. CEO said demand far exceeds supply and it cannot keep up with demand.
Rivian -26%: FY production and adj. EBITDA guidance was dismal and it announced it is to lay off 10% of its workforce.
Moderna +13.5%: Posted a surprise profit per share and beat on revenue, although the former was due to unexpected deferred revenue of USD 600mln and 300mln of cost savings.
AT&T -2.5%: Grapples with wireless disruptions across the US.
ETSY -8.5%: Missed on profit with Q1 adj. EBITDA margin guidance light of consensus.

OIL:

WTI (J4) SETTLES USD 0.70 HIGHER AT 78.61/BBL; BRENT (J4) SETTLES USD 0.64 HIGHER AT 83.67/BBL

Oil prices were ultimately firmer Thursday after reversing initial losses in what was similar price action to Wednesday, supported from Red Sea escalation and surging stocks. Red Sea angst notched up further after the leader of Yemen’s Houthis said attacks in the Red Sea would escalate. At the same time, there have been some more promising in-tone comments from Israeli officials over ceasefire negotiations. Meanwhile, the EIA reported US crude stocks built 3.5mln bbls in the latest week, similar to analyst expectations, although refinery utilisation rates remained suppressed amid some key refinery outages; the products saw a net draw of 4.3mln bbls, deeper than analyst expectations. The Biden administration added 750k bbls to the SPR, marking the 10th straight week of SPR builds. In Russia, Reuters reports its daily oil exports from its Western Ports may decline 6% in March amid higher refinery runs after outages in recent months. Oil report courtesy of newsquark


BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.393 -0.003 US 6-MO 5.356 +0.01 US 1-YR 4.024 +0.041 US 5-YR 4.333 +0.034 US 10-YR 4.331 +0.008 US 30-YR 4.464 -0.028
2YR/10YR -0.38

CRYPTO:
BTC stuck in a range whilst ETH making headway.
BTC another muted session with the focus on stocks making new records and NVIDIA blowing up the system with AI sales exploding. BTC hung around the 51k to 52k but ETH had a strong day up 3% trading around the 3k handle.

No Call.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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