MARKET REPORT

Review:
US NFP TOM MORN. All eyes. (+AU PPI)
– Strong ISM Manufacturing
– Conflicting Gaza ceasefire reports
– Rising initial jobless claims
– BoE hold rates, as expected (three-way split)
– Stocks up, Dollar down, crude down, crypto consolidates, Gold flat.

DOLLAR:
– AUD UNCH: 65.71                        UNCH (65.10 – 65.75) close highs
– EUR down : 92.00                         -0.5% (92.70 – 9193) close lows
– GPB up: 127.45                             +0.5% (126.25 – 127.55) close highs
– JPY down: 146.35                         -0.4% (147.10 – 145.95) close off lows

GOLD up smalls:                              $2072 +0.3% ($2049 – $2081) close off highs
DOW/ES/ND up:                              38605 +1%, 4925 +1%, 17435 +1% at close highs
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up:                    -+300/+.7% 42960, +5/+0.2% 2300 at close off highs
CRUDE down:                                  $74.05 -$1.8/-2.35% close absolute lows

Upcoming:

AU: PPI!

US: NFP!
– Headline Exp +185k vs +216k Prev
– Rate Exp 3.8% vs 3.7% Prev
– Avg Hourly Earnings MoM Exp +0.3% vs +0.4% Prev
– Avg Hourly Earnings YoY Exp +4.1% vs +4.1% Prev
– Avg Weekly Hours Worked Exp 34.3 vs 34.3 Prev

US: Durable Goods
US: UoM Inflation Expectations

Speakers:

Earnings:   Exxon, Chevron, Aon.

MAJORS:

DX:
Dollar was was sold on Thursday with the Buck tracing yields lower while regional banking concerns were also rife with KRE falling another 2.5% after Powell’s pushback of early rate cuts on Wednesday. US data was mixed.
Money flow adopted a risk on with flows from Debt to Equities pulling the Dollar lower.

No call NFP tom morn

10-

AUD:
“Sell bounces, go with Greenback strength, look for a move to test the 65 handle.
65.84 – 65.13”
Yest Mkt report.

Not a bad call. Range of 65.80 o/n to hot a low of 65.10 by the morn (US t/z). Ill take that. Hope some here benefitted.

Daytime dollar weakness saw a full retrace back to close on highs at 65.80

No call NFP tom morn

6-

EUR:
“92.18 – 92.93”
Yest Mkt Report.

We were 92.50 when this was posted and overnight hit 92.75 before coming off to test the 92 handle in late USD weakness. Closing at the handle.
On data, EU flash HICP was in line with expectations dipping to 2.8% from 2.9%. There were several ECB speakers, Herodouto said he expects rates to start to decline this year but noted it must be a data-based approach and any move must not be too fast or too late. ECB Centeno also spoke on the normalization of rates. Meanwhile, on inflation, ECB Chief Economist Lane said wage increases are still expected to drive a rebound and that the Red Sea issues are fairly contained given a small contribution of shipping costs to inflation.

No call NFP tom morn

9-

POUND:
GBP was the outperformer in the wake of the BoE rate decision which left rates unchanged, as expected, but with a clear divergence of views on the MPC which saw a three-way vote split, Haskel and Mann opted for a 25bp hike, while Dhingra opted for a 25bp cut. It also ditched prior guidance that further tightening could be required but maintained the judgement that policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long and for an extended period. Moreover, the MPC removed its tightening bias but accompanying projections suggested that market pricing is too dovish to be consistent with the Bank’s inflation mandate.

No call pre NFP tom morn

1-

YEN:
Yen benefited from the softer dollar and falling US yields, while the regional banking concerns kept the haven currency supported.
Of note, Soc-Gen released a note that they now expect the BoJ to raise the policy rate to 0% and abolish YCC in March.

No call pre NFP tom morn

1-

GOLD & SILVER:
Dollar weakness supported an early push from 50 – 80 in the morning session, followed by a quiet afternoon meander to close just off highs.
I like Silver sub or near $23 with GC above $2050. Trade rec is buy SI around handle, lean on GC.
Youd want to be hedged over NFP, risk appetite dependent.

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +1.25%   4,906
– NDX +1.21%  17,344
– DJIA +0.97%  38,519
– RUT +1.39%  1,974

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.26%    16,859.04
– FTSE: -0.11%  7,622.16
– CAC: -0.89%    7,588.75
– E50: -0.51%     4,638.85

SECTORS (S to W): Consumer Discretionary +1.98%, Consumer Staples +1.97%, Utilities +1.89%, Real Estate +1.75%, Industrials +1.7%, Materials +1.66%, Technology +1.38%, Health +1.27%, Communication Services +0.88%, Financials +0.09%, Energy -0.06%

STOCKS:
Etsy  +9%: Named Elliott Investment’s Marc Steinberg to the board.
Ford  +3.5%: Named a top pick at Morgan Stanley.
Shell +2%: Strong earnings and announced a USD 3.5bln share buyback program.
Qualcomm -5%: Earnings topped expectations but continued the theme of big-tech earnings from Wednesday of seeing weakness on potential elevated expectations.
Qorvo  +6%: Metrics beat and raised next quarter outlook.


OIL:
WTI (H4) SETTLED USD 2.03 LOWER AT 73.82/BBL; BRENT (J4) SETTLED USD 1.85 LOWER AT 78.70/BBL

The crude complex was eventually lower on Thursday, despite a very choppy NY afternoon on conflicting Middle East reports. WTI and Brent sank (over USD 3/bbl) to session intraday lows of USD 74.09/bbl and 78.67/bbl, respectively, after Al Jazeera posted on X that Israel agreed to a ceasefire proposal and Hamas gave positive confirmation. However, WTI and Brent pared roughly half the move after Israeli Defense Ministry comments were seemingly at odds with the Al Jazeera reports. Al Jazeera then deleted its post on X before a Qatar official told Reuters there is no ceasefire deal yet for Gaza, noting that Hamas has received the proposal positively, but it has not responded yet. Nonetheless, WTI and Brent started to descend once again heading into the energy settlement. Aside from Geopolitics, the OPEC+ JMMC made no recommendation on oil output policy, as expected. However, according to Reuters citing two OPEC+ sources, OPEC+ is to review extending the 2.2mln BPD voluntary cuts due to expire end of Q1’24 early March. Looking ahead, the US jobs report is the main event on Friday, with the weekly Baker Hughes rig count and energy earnings from CVX/XOM also due. Oil report courtesy of newsquark

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.375 -0.003 US 6-MO 5.19 +0.015 US 1-YR 4.709 -0.017 US 5-YR 4.816 -0.064 US 10-YR 3.884 -0.081 US 30-YR 4.124 -0.091
2YR/10YR -0.33

CRYPTO:
“Still favour buying dips. A TURN on a 41 handle or sub 2250 would be my thought process moving ahead.”
Yest Mkt Report.
COUGH!

Overnight we touched 41850 and 2243 before rocketing higher to 43k even and 2300 even where we stand.

No call, resting on laurels 😉

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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