MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Old London Bourse
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– August Consumer Sentiment print was 67.9, missing estimates of 68.1, but still above the July print of 66.4. The modest rebound was entirely thanks to a bounce in expectations which rose to 72.1 from 68.8, while current conditions declined to the lowest since 2022, sliding to 61.3, from 62.7:
– ISM Mfg rebounds less than expected
– Prices Paid unexpectedly rise
– Employment also gains
– RCM Economic Optimism hits a 17mth high
– Soft Swiss CPI
COMPANIES:
– NVDA – SMOKED
– INTEL – SMOKED
– BOEING – SMOKED
GENERAL:
– NASDAQ, CRUDE, SILVER CARNAGE
– Nasdaq wiping out 3.1% or about 75% of its average September loss from the past decade in one trading day
– the annual household income needed to afford a median-priced home without too much financial strain has shot up 60% since January 2022.
– A federal judge in Texas has ruled that a lawsuit brought by Elon Musk’s X against Media Matters can proceed to trial, after dismissing a request by the Democrat-run enterprise.
– Houthis hit 2 tankers in the Red Sea
– American Soldiers attacked in Turkey (But we’re brothers in NATO??)
– Homebuyer’s Down Payment Hits ‘Record High,’ Surging Nearly 15 Percent In A Year
– Libya’s oil feud looks set to subside
– Record amount of corporate issuance
– BoJ says they would continue to hike if economy/prices perform as expected;
– Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar up
DOLLAR DX up: 101.79 +0.1% (101.59 – 101.92) MID
– AUD SMOKED: 67.11 -1.11% (67.72 – 67.09) Off LOWS
– EUR up: 90.53 +0.25% (90.33 – 90.66) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.11 -0.24% (131.11 – 133.88) Off LOWS
– JPY down: 145.11 -0.98% (146.70 – 145.17) Off LOWS
GOLD DOWN: $2524 -0.2% (2538 – 2506) MID
DOW/ES/ND down/down/DOWN 41031 -1.5%, 5538 -2.16%, 18989 -3.25%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/DOWN: 58163 1.68%, 2462 -3.5%
CRUDE SMOKED: $70.22 -4.5% (YUP!) (74.27 – 70.18) LOWS
Coming Up:
– Australian, Japanese, EZ, UK PMIs (F), Australian GDP, US International Trade, US Durable Goods, JOLTS Job Openings
Speakers:
– ECB’s Elderson
– BoC Governor Macklem & Rogers
Earnings:
– Direct Line, Barratt Developments, Dollar Tree, Hewlett Packard, Hormel Foods
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar Index resumed last week’s theme of strength on Tuesday, although, gains were modest relative to those witnessed last week. Moves in the dollar were choppy, but once ISM Mfg’s expected rebound in August came in beneath expectations, gains followed. While a soft ISM Mfg print isn’t typically suggestive of a stronger buck, the report saw the Employment component rise from prior, as well as the Prices Paid component rise higher than expected, despite expectations of a reading reinforcing subsiding inflation, and as such, supporting the case for a higher dollar.
Other US releases in the session included July Construction Spending, falling 0.3% (exp. -0.1%), while the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Sept) rose to a 17-month high of 46.1 (prev. 44.5). Note, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q3 was revised lower to 2% (prev. 2.5%) in the wake of the ISM and Construction Spending data.
Looking ahead, catalysts for the week remain plentiful, with JOLTs, Factory Orders, and Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday. ADP, Challenger Layoffs and ISM Services PMI on Thursday, ahead of NFP on Friday. Report courtesy of newsquark.
DOLLAR DX up: 101.79 +0.1% (101.59 – 101.92) MID
EUR/GBP
The Euro was weak amid a lack of Euro-specific drivers as the US ISM report took influence over the cross, erasing an earlier rebound in the pair.
ECB speak took the spotlight in the space, specifically, ECB’s Simkus saying he sees quite a clear case for a September rate cut, but for cutting in October or by more than 25bps, he finds it unlikely.
ECB’s Nagel, he said the great wave of inflation is over, but will not commit in advance on whether he will vote for an interest rate cut in September.
Tomorrow will see : Final PMIs for EZ, France, Italy, and Germany, EZ PPI, and a speech from ECB’s Elderson.
– EUR up: 90.53 +0.25% (90.33 – 90.66) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.11 -0.24% (131.11 – 133.88) Off LOWS
AUD:
– Weakest of the majors
– Aussie PMI & GDP!!!
– AUD SMOKED: 67.11 -1.11% (67.72 – 67.09) Off LOWS
YEN:
– Yen’s strength was also bolstered by BoJ’s Ueda submitting documents to a government panel which noted the BoJ would continue to hike if the economy/prices performed as expected
– JPY down: 145.11 -0.98% (146.70 – 145.17) Off LOWS
GOLD/SILVER:
– GOLD DOWN: $2524 -0.2% (2538 – 2506) MID
EQUITIES:
– S&P plunges 2.4%, biggest drop since the August 5 meltdown
EUR:
– DAX -0.92% 18,756
– FTSE -0.78% at 8,298
– CAC -0.93% 7,575
– ES50 -1.21% 4,913
US:
– SPX -2.12% 5,529
– NDX -3.15% 18,959
– DJIA -1.51% 40,937
– RUT -3.09% 2,149
Sectors (W to S): Technology -4.43%, Energy -2.41%, Communication Services -2.34%, Materials -2.29%, Industrials -2.27%, Consumer Discretionary -1.39%, Financials -0.71%, Health -0.21%, Utilities -0.13%, Real Estate +0.27%, Consumer Staples +0.76%
BONDS:
– 10Y yields sliding almost 10bps and back to where they were just after the Aug 5 crash:
OIL:
– WTI (V4) SETTLED USD 3.21 LOWER AT 70.34/BBL; BRENT (X4) SETTLED USD 3.77 LOWER AT USD 73.75/BBL
The crude complex saw significant pressure on Tuesday driven by a slew of bearish catalysts, such as Libya headlines and refineries coming back online. WTI and Brent saw weakness throughout the European morning and continued in the US session to settle at lows, amid a handful of refineries coming back online in various nations, and progress on talks around Libya’s central bank. On the latter, initial reports noted that UN hosts talks in Tripoli aimed at resolving Libya’s central bank crisis and key understandings were reached, but the complex came under much more marked pressure after Bloomberg reported that a Libyan Central Banker anticipates a deal leading to an oil restart to happen ‘soon’. Regarding the pipelines, Orlen’s (PKN WP) UniPetrol intends to resume full operations at the Litvinov refinery (120k BPD) at the start of next week, and Tengiz oil field (540k BPD) maintenance has now concluded. In terms of levels, as mentioned WTI and Brent settled at troughs and both front-month futures breached beneath the February lows. For the week ahead, labour market data is the key which concludes with US payrolls report on Friday, which will seemingly decide the Fed’s move at its September gathering. Note, private inventory data has been delayed by a day given the US Labor Day holiday on Monday.Oil Report courtesy of newsquark.
CRUDE SMOKED: $70.22 -4.5% (YUP!) (74.27 – 70.18) LOWS
CRYPTO
– Sell everything. Modus of the Day.
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/DOWN: 58163 1.68%, 2462 -3.5%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg67iIFivDo
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3HsSjS6n-k
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/exhvp-XmL4s
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
