MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Non Farm Payrolls outperforms.
– Dollar up smalls across board, +0.3% vs AUD @, +0.3% vs EUR @, +0.3% vs GPB @, up 0.5% vs YEN
– Equities small bid, DOW + @, ES + @, ND + @
– GC sold off post number – @, SI worse down , @
– Coins BTC pushes past early weakness to grind higher, ETH whipsaw gives up early gains.
– Crude higher over a more resilient economy, trades off in afternoon, but still firm on up. Trading , +
– NFP inc 47k returning strike autoworkers, large (+77k) Healthcare (low-grade non prof) and Gov’t (+49k).
– EVERY NFP (Inc this one) prev month figure revised lower (but no-one cares)
– RATE dipped to 3.7% Exp 3.9%
– ‘Strong’ number likely pushes back Fed Easing Cycle. Extends longer than expected plateau in rates.

Upcoming:          AUD Consumer Conf, RBA Speech, NAB bus conf Tues morn.
US: Tues Morn CPI.

MAJORS:

DX:
Index whipsaw day but retained strength closing in the positive. Easing of the cycle pushed back, elevated levels IR likely from the number. Next week’s CPI will be watched as if we get strong Wages, that could lead to Hawkish talk from Powell, and nerves about a possible hike. With an aggregate short dollar market this could set for a heavy retrace. A strong NFP by itself is not marked ‘concern’, but coupled with a Strong CPI we could see a firm tone from Powell.

AUD:

AUD held at the 65.50 level this week. Whipsaw action over NFP, did see the Dollar firming smalls to have the AUD midrange in the afternoon. CPI next week will help determine the dollar. Range trading 65.50 to 66.40 early next.

EUR:

A whipsaw session saw a 92.65 to 93.15 range. I still favour selling strength on a turn. Although feel we’re rangey as well. 92.40 to 93.25 immediate.

Pound
Pound:
Closed mid range after another whipsaw session of 125.10 to 125.70 post number. Cant see a break of 125. Id be favour buying a dip on a turn. 125.30 to 126.30 immediate.

Yen:

After getting smoked earlier this week on BOJ rate rise talk we then Dollar make up the most ground today against the majors on the stronger NFP. Although another whipsaw and NOT easy to trade. 143.80 to 145.15 post number range. Closing off highs. Feeling like Dollar found a temp base here with anything with a 143 handle good for a cent retrace, anything close to 144 value short term. 144.30 to 145.85 near.

Gold and Silver:

Worst call of the week to pick up gold 2042. Cant pick them all. Smoked from NFP and a long mkt the yellow metal sold off 1.5%/-$30 closing off lows. Mkt got long and hurt. No call here. Rangey. 1990 to 2038. Si did even worse down 3%/-$0.72 at low $23. Have $22.50 as support, likey hit near term.

US Equities:
Whipsaw Closing into highs. Indexes up 0.5% on the day.

Oil:
Whipsaw grind higher. Closing near highs. +1.87 $71.81

Bond Yields:

1 Mo: 5.395 +0.017 6Mo 5.391 +0.027 1yr 5.139 +0.083 5yr 4.246 +0.134 10yr 4.233 +0.104 and the 30yr 4.314 +0.067
2’s/10’s -0.49

Crytpo:
“Bullish momentum hugely in favour. Would not be surprised to NOT see a retrace to 39k but rather a head to 45k before pullback.”
Posted this Tues, my last Mkt Report as BTC hit 41.5 on surging through 40k level. Best call of the day there with BTC hitting 44.3k without a retracement.
Posted quickly yesterday coins would have a rest, as they have.
No real call here near, favour 50k and 2500 a look by years end.

Best of luck out there.

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