MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Dollar Index up on pre Non Farm nerves (my explanation). Dollar up vs AUD at 66.19 -53pips/0.8%, up vs EUR at 92.27 +40pips/0.45%, up 78 pips/0.6% at 126.31 vs Pound, and up vs the Yen, 147.20 +44 pips/0.3%.
– Dow down 0.14% 36250, ES down 0.6% at 4575, ND continues to under-perform down 1% at 15855.
– Crude down 1%, Gold and Silver kick RETRACE.
– Coins surge with BTC +5%, ETH up 2.5%
– Foxconn halts iPhone production at Chennai facility;
– US factory orders post largest decline since COVID
– Saudi said OPEC+ cuts can ‘absolutely’ go beyond Q1
– UBER to join S&P 500
Upcoming:
US JOLTS, Australian AIG Manufacturing Index
Events: RBA Policy Announcement.
US jobs report; China CPI, trade data; RBA, BoC rate decisions
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar retraced against all currencies today firming on account of the broad risk-off sentiment and general Dollar bid, as opposed to anything too currency-specific. As stated, my opinion is nerves about Fridays Non Farm number as a prelim bid, halting the Dollar sell off and Treasury bid. The weatherman in me being a Monday morning QB. That’s a good joke.
I like AUD with a 65 handle, Euro 92.30+, GBP 125. Yen may dance around the 147 handle for a little.
AUD:
AUD sold off to 66.07, now 66.20. Very fond of buying anything with a 65 handle on a turn to look again at 66.85. Cannot see 65 handle in view long term. Non Farm could provide OPPORTUNITIES to engineer a long book around the 65 handle for high 66’s 67’s longer term. Im not referring to the number itself, action before.
EUR:
Love a Euro sell 92.40+
92.28 currently. +41 pips, +0.45%
Look for 91.50 next 48 hours.
CANNOT see a 93 handle.
Pound Pound:
Again. Sel Dollar with a 125 handle. 124 is simply not on the cards. High 125 are max. 127 next 48 hours.
Yen: Hit 147.43. Anything 147.30+ a sell. Same call. Expect a 145 handle this week.
Gold and Silver:
Issued a glaring buy with Gold 2040 and Silver sub 25.
Still hold this.
Favourite trade on the board.
Buy both. Now.
US Equities:
SPX -0.54% at 4,569, NDX -0.99% at 15,839, DJIA -0.11% at 36,204, RUT +1.04% at 1,882.
Real Estate +0.54%, Health +0.21%, Industrials +0.2%, Consumer Staples +0.1%, Financials unch., Utilities -0.39%, Energy -0.46%, Consumer Discretionary -0.46%, Materials -1.19%, Technology -1.31%, Communication Services -1.37%.
US stocks closed lower on Monday, as the S&P 500 lost 0.5%, the Nasdaq shed 0.8% and the Dow Jones fell 41 points, following big gains on Friday and in November. Traders pause to assess the monetary policy outlook while awaiting key labour market data due during the week, including the jobs report. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell once again pushed back against expectations of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Communication services, tech and energy were the worst performing sectors. On the corporate front, Microsoft dropped 1.4%, Nvidia shed 2.6%, Amazon fell 1.5% and Google parent Alphabet ended 1.9% lower. Also, Meta Platforms slid 1.5%, extending losses for a fourth day after hitting a 4-week low of $314.84 during the session. Meanwhile, Coinbase , Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms all advanced over 5.5% as bitcoin Bitcoin climbed to a 20-month high. Spotify shares added 7.4% after the music streaming company announced it would lay off 17% of its workforce.
https://tradingeconomics.com/
Oil:
Oil prices were lower and choppy on Monday amid continued fallout from OPEC+ in the backdrop of cooling economic data and volatile Middle East tensions. WTI and Brent hit session lows of USD 72.63/bbl and 77.52/bbl, respectively, in the NY morning before rallying c. USD 2/bbl, which did coincide with Reuters reports that Turkey is warning of “serious consequences” if Israel tries to hunt down Hamas officials. But prices meandered lower again into the NY afternoon. There was only a fleeting spike higher on the Saudi Energy Minister saying to Bloomberg that OPEC+ cuts could “absolutely” go beyond Q1, whilst jawboning that the group’s 2.2mln BPD cuts will be delivered. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported the US DoE as saying it will buy back as much oil “as we possibly can”, saying it is to take advantage of low oil prices to refill reserves, but reserve refill is limited by physical constraints. In the east, oil loadings from the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk resumed on December 3rd after the storm, Reuters reported.
Oil report courtesy of https://www.zerohedge.com/
Bond Yields:
1 Mo: 5.4 +0.005 6Mo 5.396 +0.031 1yr 5.099 +0.052 5yr 4.212 +0.058 10yr 4.259 +0.035 and the 30yr 4.413 -0.004
2’s/10’s -0.38
Crytpo:
“Still like buying dips for another leg upward. 40k and 2250 are favoured. May see an opportunity for weakness to exploit. Anything close to 36.5 and sub 2000 is gold. Doubt will see those levels, but look for near.”
Yest mkt report.
BTC & ETH stronger on the day.
…..
Although we didn’t get the pullback, as Ive stated trade the concept not the strategy. If I say I like upward projection but give a price on pullback for entry the OCO is to jump on momentum if no pullback IE trade the IDEA, not the mechanics.
Favour hitting 40k stops to 41.5 and 2250 in the upcoming.”
Yest Mkt report.
Bullish momentum hugely in favour. Would not be surprised to NOT see a retrace to 39k but rather a head to 45k before pullback.
Eth same. 2500 before years end.
Best of luck out there.
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