MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Villefranche-sur-Mer ($6m Euro)
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– ISM Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts and pointed to a softer contraction in the factory sector
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 from 46.5 and above the 47.5 consensus, although within the forecast range of 46.5 to 48.6. New orders returned to expansion, rising from 47.1 to 50.4 while production rose to 46.8 from 46.2
COMPANIES
– Delaware judge rejects request to restore Musk’s $56 billion Tesla (+3.46%) pay
– Super Micro says independent review finds no evidence of misconduct as company searches for new CFO (+28.5%)
GENERAL:
– After saying for years no one is above the law Biden pardons Hunter of all tax fraud and gun charges. With a BLANKET pardon BACK TO 2014!!!!!!! (Hint, that’s when he started in the Ukraine at Burisma) Hysterical.
– UK natural gas futures climbed above 120 pence per therm, the highest since October 2023, driven by forecasts of freezing temperatures dropping as low as -7°C this week. The UK’s limited gas storage capacity leaves it vulnerable to cold weather and supply fluctuations, especially as storage levels in Europe decline and Russian gas flows via Ukraine ease. Britain’s reliance on domestic production, Norwegian imports, and global LNG makes it more exposed during periods of high demand, such as the colder-than-usual start to this season. Low wind energy output earlier in the month added to the strain on gas supplies.
– French credit risk spikes after Le Pen confirms backing of ‘No Confidence’ vote
– The CAC 40 edged higher to close at 7,237 on Monday, after French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s last-minute budget concessions to Marine Le Pen aimed at averting a no-confidence vote and stabilizing France’s financial and political situation, temporarily calming market jitters. The compromise, which included a commitment to maintain medicine reimbursement levels, helped French stocks recover from an earlier 1.2% drop and narrowed bond spreads slightly. However, this move ultimately failed to reassure investors, as political uncertainty remained high, and concerns over the government’s ability to reduce the growing deficit persisted.
– Frankfurt, the DAX Index gained 307 points or 1.57 percent on Monday. Gains were led by Adidas (3.72%), Fresenius Medical Care (3.63%) and Munich RE (2.89%).
– Euro bourses higher
– Syria collapses as islamists take Aleppo (2nd largest city)
– Trump requiring a commitment from BRICS that they will neither create a new currency, nor back any other currency to replace the US dollar or they will face 100% tariff
– TSX eases from record high
– Dovish Waller
– Disappointing EZ PMIs
– Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: December 19bps (prev. 15bps), January 23bps (prev. 21bps), March 37bps (prev. 34bps)
– Equities up, Treasuries flattened, Crude flat, Dollar up, Crypto holds in: BTC over 95.4k
Ahead:
– Swiss CPI, US JOLTS
Week Ahead:
– US NFP and ISM PMIs, OPEC+, Canada jobs, Swiss CPI and Australia GDP
– Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and the pivotal NFP on Friday ahead of blackout for the Dec. FOMC meeting.
Speakers:
– Fed’s Goolsbee, Kugler; ECB’s Cipollone
MAJORS:
YEN:
– The Yen was the distinct G10 outperformer amid its haven properties with continued focus on the anticipated BoJ hike in December.
EQUITIES:
EURO:
– SMI +0.61% at 11,836, DAX +1.44% at 19,908, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.86% at 4,846, FTSE MIB +0.21% at 33,483, FTSE 100 +0.31% at 8,313, CAC 40 +0.02% at 7,237, AEX +0.67% at 888, IBEX 35 +0.81% at 11,735
US:
– SPX +0.24% at 6,047, NDX +1.12% at 21,165, DJIA -0.29% at 44,782, RUT -0.02% at 2,434.
Sectors:
– Communication Services +1.45%, Consumer Discretionary +1.06%, Technology +1.03%, Consumer Staples -0.10%, Health -0.13%, Materials -0.20%, Industrials -0.66%, Energy -0.85%, Financials -0.90%, Real Estate -1.44%, Utilities -2.08%
OIL:
– WTI (F5) SETTLED USD 0.10 HIGHER AT 68.10/BBL; BRENT (G5) SETTLED USD 0.01 LOWER AT 71.83/BBL
The crude complex was choppy but settled with marginal losses as the eventual Dollar strength outweighed strong Chinese data and geopolitical tensions.
WTI and Brent saw strength overnight and through the European morning to hit highs of USD 69.11/bbl and 72.89/bbl, respectively, after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI impressed coupled with the Lebanon ceasefire being breached by both sides but still holding in place, for now, as well as tensions flaring around Syria as opposition forces have taken control of much of Aleppo.
Crude complex saw notable weakness thereafter on account of the broad Buck bid due to a trifecta of reasons, such as President-elect Trump’s tariff threats, EUR weakness, and ISM Mfg. surpassing expectations. WTI and Brent settled just off lows of USD 67.71/bbl and 71.52/bbl, respectively, ahead of Chair Powell (Wed), OPEC (Thurs), and NFP (Fri) the key highlights this week. Report courtesy of newsquawk.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieJfLA_5-D8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKlciNxF8xQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa8k8IQ1_X0&t=636s
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnP-SKbmUCU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2C5TjS2sh4
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/xFft23dvNz4
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/dZC55pkRiRc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3znzIslrQXg
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kASz9Rr7ko
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
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