MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Muskoka, Lake Joseph, Ontario.
Money is a terrible master but an adept slave
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Soft UK GDP
COMPANIES
– Broadcom shares surged 22% in premarket trading after reporting earnings that exceeded expectations and a 220% surge in annual AI revenue. The company also projected robust demand for its AI chips. Market Cap hits $1T
– Chipotle (-2.3%) CEO wants to overhaul kitchen with robots
GENERAL:
– Stocks in Iceland hit 19-month HIGH
– Cocoa futures hit 8-month high
– Euro Bourses close slightly in the Red
– Orban says Zelenski turned down Christmas truce
– Russia launches massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine
– Pelosi hospitalized due to fall in Luxembourg
– Centrist politician Francois Bayrou has been announced as France’s new prime minister
– UK upholds ban on puberty blocking Drugs for minors
– US to restrict sale of AI chips to limit China access
– Trump weighs options to stop Iran nukes
– Dudley expects median neutral rate estimate to be revised up
– More BoJ reports suggest skip in Dec
– Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold down, BTC back over 6 figures
Week Ahead:
– FOMC, BoJ, BoE, PBoC LPR, PMI data, US PCE and Retail Sales
Earnings:
– [WED] MU; [THURS] ACN, CTAS, PAYX, FDX, NKE; [FRI] CCL
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was little changed on Friday with DXY trading either side of 107.00 in a 106.72-107.18 range despite the continued move higher in yields this week. The data highlight on Friday was US Import/Export prices, which were slightly hotter than forecast but ultimately little changed on the month and has little implications for PCE data due 20th Dec, with analysts revising down expectations post PPI on Thursday.
Next week attention lies on the FOMC rate decision, US Retail Sales and PCE data.
EURO:
– Outperformed on Friday, with EUR/USD rising to a peak of 1.0524 from a low of 1.0454 with attention turning to EZ PMI data next week.
There were several ECB speakers on Friday, Villeroy said that more rate cuts are to come, while Kazaks said the direction of rates is clearly down, and the neutral rate is closer to 2% than 3%, noting a significant reduction in rates is still necessary. Escriva said it is logical to have further cuts in coming meetings, while Holzmann said Thursday’s decision was good. Vasle stressed a meeting by meeting, data dependent approach, and Centeno said that gradualism is the most important word.
POUND:
– Was an underperformer after soft GDP data saw cable test 1.2600 to the downside in later trade but it failed to breach the psychological level. EUR/GBP ground higher throughout the session in wake of the soft growth data to peak at 0.8319.
Pound traders’ attention turn to UK jobs and inflation data next week ahead of the BoE on Thursday.
YEN:
Was the clear laggard in a higher UST yield environment while several reports suggest the BoJ is set to skip a rate hike at the meeting next week. Meanwhile, the latest Tankan data saw corporate price expectations unchanged, while the rest of the report showed higher-than-expected optimism among large Japanese manufacturers.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– FTSE 100 -0.14% at 8,300, CAC 40 -0.15% at 7,410, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.04% at 4,967, DAX -0.17% at 20,392
US:
– SPX unch. at 6,051, NDX +0.76% at 21,780, DJI -0.20% at 43,828, RUT -0.60% at 2,347.
Sectors:
– Technology +0.54%, Consumer Discretionary +0.42%, Utilities +0.07%, Health UNCH, Consumer Staples -0.20%, Industrials -0.27%, Financials -0.28%, Real Estate -0.58%, Energy -0.63%, Materials -0.79%, Communication Services -1.12%
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures surged 1.8% on Friday, settling at $71.30 per barrel, marking its highest close since November 7 and a 6% gain for the week, driven by tightening global supplies and rising fuel demand.
The rally was fueled by expectations of sanctions on Russia and Iran, lower interest rate forecasts in the U.S. and Europe, and supportive measures from China’s economy.
The European Union imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s tanker fleet, while the U.S. is considering similar actions.
In China, crude imports saw an annual increase in November, prompting the International Energy Agency (IEA) to raise its global oil demand outlook. Despite weaker credit demand in China, which led to disappointing bank lending, the IEA predicts an oil surplus for 2025, as non-OPEC+ producers, including the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil, ramp up supply.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with additional reductions anticipated through 2025.
GOLD/SILVER:
– Rising Yields continued to weigh. Next week FOMC positioning.
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.318 +0.011
US 6-MO: 4.33 +0.012
US 1-YR: 4.252 +0.031
US 5-YR: 4.252 +0.076
US 10-YR: 4.399 +0.075
US 30-YR: 4.602 +0.054
TWO’s/TENS: 0.15 +0.01
CRYPTO
– A lawmaker in the Texas House of Representatives has drafted legislation to create a Bitcoin reserve as part of the state’s treasury.
– In a bill tentatively named the “Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act” filed with the state government on Dec. 12, Representative Giovanni Capriglione proposed the comptroller hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset for “at least five years.”
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UZQyQk3AYGA
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eGnp9LYr9RE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDY6L-w10EY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2Efkrrz5q0
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5gZUyz_XE1E
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAFpjl_0BPk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZdRdelDNxM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaCdHfSInTM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8kCMvTYPAM
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/AumUTnoBE3Y
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/A0-F1o4Q3I8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHCNxsFuO8Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO-LVTdNEqA
House of the day:
Villa del Balbianello, Tremezzina, Lake Como
https://parkervillas.com/famous-villas-in-italy/(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
Wave goodbye….
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
