MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Dollar smoked
– The Summary of Economic Projections showed that the FOMC expects the Fed Funds rate to be 4.75% vs 5.25% previously projected
– Dollar down vs EVERYTHING. AUD +1.65%, Euro -0.75%, Pound +0.4% (underperformer, hint, it’s a buy), Yen SMOKED -2.3%! (Yesterday you got long and were wrong. 140 on the cards)
– Gold SURGES. Above the crucial 2040 level. Expect more.
– Silver up over 4% Rejection of lows, now in a huge bull market. Buy it. Now.
– Equities (unsurprisingly) love the news. +1.5% across the board.
– Crypto Rallies HARD
– Crude rallies but still deep in a bear market.
Upcoming: – AUSSIE EMPLOYMENT
MAJORS:
DX:
I don’t want to conspiracy theorist today’s data but we went from a seriously possible rate hike on table to no hike PLUS much greater cuts than expected next year. Anything happening next year? Oooooooooh, riiiiiiight. Us Federal election. Uh-huh.
Dollar smoked across board. VS Yen worst, held up vs Pound best. More pain for the dollar to come. Index will look at 100.
AUD:
“Love AUD a buy 65-65.50. Or just 65.50 😉No US rate rise, maybe some tough talk from Jerome but its not breaking 65. So if its not down…. Well done clever boy, you musta finished top o your f…. class 😉”
Yest mkt report.
NO, we couldn’t have foreseen Fed 24 policy, but OFTEN (more-so than not = often) Key levels
regulary coincide with external events. I don’t know why. The Key KEY level of 65.50 Ive been PUSHING for weeks now (Days? Either/or Long time) held and 67 is on the door-step. 67 WILL BE seen. With 68 seen before New Year/a rest. Then 70c. Firmly bullish, if you cant tell.
EUR:
“LOVE Euro a sell high 92’s. Been saying for a while but TOUGH over NFP and CPI, I understand. But POST CPI we hit 92.83, massive sell. Back at 92.62. Anything above is a fade/sell on turn.”
Yest Mkt report.
Gloating is ok, because this game is not easy.
Euro underperformed both the AUD and the YEN so has more downside to go. Straight to 91. 90 before years end.
As you can tell by my tone, the Dollar is now firmly in a bear market.
Pound Pound:
“Anything sub 125.50 is a buy to me. 127 is next grind. Value buy here. My opine.”
Yest Mkt report
126.22, Itll hit 127 and hold. 130 in January.
Yen:
Yesterday I wrote 144 was on the cards, it was. So was 142.50 apparently. Dollar smoked, we’ll see 140 before years end. It’s a ‘will we see it in December vs January’ bet vs a ‘which way is the Yen going?’
Gold and Silver:
“Expect bounce here, VALUE, in my…..
final IR raise now OFF the table, my opine (hush, good word), dollar drift off, inflation WILL take while (Fed WILL jimmy the figures, take and make of that what you will) but Gold will fill in the dollar weakness gap and with new highs on horizon, a break could be in the new year.”
Yest Mkt Report.
Resting on laurels.
New highs on Horizon. 2100+ pre the new year. Dollar BEAR mkt. Gold BULL mkt. This wont stop.
US Equities:
Wall Street’s major indexes finished higher on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held the funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%, as widely expected but the Fed’s “dot plot” indicated three rate cuts in 2024. The Dow Jones popped by 512 points to close at record high of 37,090 level, marking the fifth day win streak. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained nearly 1.4% each, the levels not seen since January. The Summary of Economic Projections showed that FOMC expects the funds rate to be at 4.75% by the end of 2024, below their previous projections of 5.25%, as the cooler-than-expected inflation reports drove Fed policymakers to revise PCE inflation forecasts downwards, while unemployment and GDP gauges were loosely unchanged. Among stocks, tech giants and semiconductor producers booked sharp gains and Home Depot rose 3% on the chance of a revival in the housing market. Conversely, Pfizer tanked 6.7% on a lower guidance.
Equities report courtesy of https://tradingeconomics.com/stream
Oil:
Strengthened with larger cuts promoting economic activity therefor driving up the price of oil. Is the rationale.
Still deep bear market for crude though. This may provide a rest before further downturn.
Bond Yields:
1 Mo: 5.385 +0.027 6Mo 5.354 +0.024 1yr 4.943 -0.012 5yr 3.958 -0.045 10yr 4.013 -0.02 and the 30yr 4.177 -0.007
2’s/10’s -0.53
Crytpo:
“Do LIKE anything with a 40 handle, LOVE a 39 handle Think a low 40 handle (40.250-40.5) the low, may be wrong be 500 a side, or altogether. Like for another move up. Think 50k and 2.5k in NY.
Eth LIKE a LOW 21 handle, LOVE a 20 handle.
Will we get to each?
Be careful OF THE TURN, suspect many houses (banks, funds etc) have similar viewpoints so DON’T MISS A TURN UP.
Remember, one or the other. Catch a bottom and turn, or catch a momentum change run.
This is free. Lucky you.”
Yest market report.
Onward and upward. Exiting $$ from the dollar looking to find a home. BTC +3.7%, ETH + 2.8%.
Wishey washey for a time before consolidating and moving up.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you.
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