MARKET REPORT
Review:
– US CPI largely in-line
– Core CPI figures as expected – 0.3% M/M and 4.0% Y/Y, headline M/M rose 0.1% (above exp. 0.0%), while the headline Y/Y lifted 3.1%, as expected.
– Fed pricing sits more hawkish to pre-data levels with 110bps of cuts priced across 2024 vs 117bps (pre-data), first fully priced-in cut still in for May.
– Dollar FLAT. Smalls up vs Euro, smalls down vs Yen (retrace), flat v Battler & Englishman.
– Equities ND outperforms again (catching up on previous under), DOW + 0.5% @ 36616, ES + 0.5% @4650, ND +0.9% @ 16385.
– GC restrained range, pre number short covering, ground off post, 1994, SI $23 unch.
– Coins BTC UNCH (41.4) ETH -1.65% 2175
– Crude puking continues. Exorcist wise -3.6% to $68.75
Upcoming: – US PPI, Fed & BCB Policy Announcement, Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
MAJORS:
DX:
An inline CPI takes a hike off the table, in my view. Cuts are up for dispute, but cant see another hike off this number. = USD futher decline longer term. Id be expecting a drift towards a re-test of late Nov lows of 102.70 to 102.50.
AUD:
Love AUD a buy 65-65.50. Or just 65.50 😉No US rate rise, maybe some tough talk from Jerome but its not breaking 65. So if its not down…. Well done clever boy, you musta finished top o your f…. class 😉
EUR:
LOVE Euro a sell high 92’s. Been saying for a while but TOUGH over NFP and CPI, I understand. But POST CPI we hit 92.83, massive sell. Back at 92.62. Anything above is a fade/sell on turn.
Pound Pound:
Anything sub 125.50 is a buy to me. 127 is next grind. Value buy here. My opine.
Yen:
Despite the ‘inside word’ putting ‘to bed’ Rumors of BoJ changing policy we have a strong rejection of the retracement (say that 10x fast. I just did. Was easy). YEN back below 145.50. With a weaker dollar forecasted (yours) I see 144 on the cards with a rest.
Gold and Silver:
Nothing to see here, move on. Pre number 2007, post 1994 and stayed. Silver 23 the figure.
1990 and 22.50 support. Expect bounce here, VALUE, in my…..
final IR raise now OFF the table, my opine (hush, good word), dollar drift off, inflation WILL take while (Fed WILL jimmy the figures, take and make of that what you will) but Gold will fill in the dollar weakness gap and with new highs on horizon, a break could be in the new year.
US Equities:
Technology +0.83%, Financials +0.72%, Materials +0.57%, Health +0.47%, Industrials +0.46%, Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Consumer Staples +0.31%, Communication Services +0.2%, Real Estate -0.05%, Utilities -0.41%, Energy -1.36%.
Oracle Rev missed.
Not much else worth commenting on.
Oil:
Oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels since June on Tuesday despite some rising geopolitical tensions. The downside began late in the European morning and extended all the way into the settlement, seeing WTI and Brent break beneath their Dec 7th lows of USD 68.80/bbl and 73.60/bbl, respectively. There were no major energy-specific updates on Tuesday, although the EIA STEO did cut its 2023 and 2024 world oil demand forecasts slightly. There were a few geopolitical rumblings, with the Russian Defence Ministry saying a Ukrainian-launched tactical ballistic missile was shot down over the Belgorod region in Russia, in addition to reports of the Yemen Houthis attacking a ship. However, neither appeared to sustain any risk premium pricing in the oil benchmarks. Attention now falls on the weekly energy inventory data; this week’s expectations (bbls): Crude -0.7mln, Gasoline +1.9mln, Distillate +0.6mln.
Oil report courtesy of https://www.zerohedge.com/
Bond Yields:
1 Mo: 5.374 -0.019 6Mo 5.411 +0.045 1yr 5.144 UNCH 5yr 4.227 -0.024 10yr 4.21 -0.029 and the 30yr 4.315 -0.015
2’s/10’s -0.53
Crytpo:
Rest post smoke.
Do LIKE anything with a 40 handle, LOVE a 39 handle Think a low 40 handle (40.250-40.5) the low, may be wrong be 500 a side, or altogether. Like for another move up. Think 50k and 2.5k in NY.
Eth LIKE a LOW 21 handle, LOVE a 20 handle.
Will we get to each?
Be careful OF THE TURN, suspect many houses (banks, funds etc) have similar viewpoints so DON’T MISS A TURN UP.
Remember, one or the other. Catch a bottom and turn, or catch a momentum change run.
This is free. Lucky you.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you.
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.
As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
