MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Both men had, good week’s.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to a 7-month high
– Headline coming in at 73 (exp. 71), Expectations rose M/M, whereas Current Conditions fell from the prior. Inflation expectations in the report were mixed, with the 1yr ticking lower to 2.6% (prev. 2.7%), while the 5yr inched higher to 3.1% (prev. 3.0)
– The figures however, do not capture any reactions to election results
– Canada adds fewer jobs than expected, Unemployment Rate unchanged
COMPANIES
– Tesla +10%, Hits Mkt Cap $1T
– Tesla shares trade 93.47 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, compared with 38.57 for AI chip giant Nvidia, Microsoft’s 30.77 and Ford’s 6.29.
– DJTWW +19% Rolla-coaster week comes to an end positive after Trump says he wont sell
– American Airlines loses appeal of ruling barring Jetblue alliance
– AirBnb -8% on mixed financials. EPS 3rd Q was $2.13 vs $2.14 Exp
– Pinterest -15% on lowered Q4 Exp. Actual Exp $1.135 billion vs $1.143 billion Exp
– TSMC reportedly suspends production of some AI/high-performance chips
GENERAL:
– Euro Bourses close lower: CAC -1.2% (3-month low), FTSE -0.9% (3-month low), DAX -0.76%, Italy MIB -0.5%, Spain IBEX -0.3%
– The S&P 500 and Dow are each up 4.6% for the week, their best since November 2023, while the Nasdaq leads with a 5.4% gain.
– The S&P 500 topped 6,000 for the first time ever this week (and its 50th record high of the year) as all the US majors exploded higher post the election
– Markets currently see a nearly 68% probability of an additional 25 bps cut in December
– Orange Juice decreased to a 4-week low of 459.25 USd/Lbs. Down 10%.
– Over the past 4 weeks, Orange Juice lost 3.69%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 10.5%
– Nat Gas +4.5% vs Crude -3%
– Judge strikes down rule protecting illegal immigrants married to US citizens
– Classes at Harvard, Penn, Columbia, Others cancelled over Trump win
– Harris campaign spent OVER $1B. 1st in history
– Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar up
Ahead:
– Holiday: US Veterans Day
Week Ahead:
– US and China CPI, US Retail Sales, UK and Australian Jobs
MAJORS:
Nothing of note to report
EQUITIES:
– Small Caps had their best week since the COVID lockdowns (and liquidity surge) in April 2020
– Energy & Financials outperformed
– TSLA tore back above $1 trillion market cap this week and NVDA continued to push to new record territory, now considerably larger than AAPL
EUR:
– DAX: -0.81% at 19,205, FTSE 100: -0.84% at 8,072, CAC 40: -1.17% at 7,339, Euro Stoxx 50: -1.03% at 4,802
US:
– SPX +0.38% at 5,996, NDX +0.07% at 21,117, DJIA +0.59% at 43,989, RUT +0.71% at 2,400
Sectors:
– Materials -0.91%, Communication Services -0.66%, Technology -0.34%, Energy +0.44%, Health +0.71%, Financials +0.78%, Industrials +1.01%, Consumer Discretionary +1.23%, Consumer Staples +1.45%, Real Estate +1.66%, Utilities +1.79%
OIL:
WTI (Z4) SETTLED USD 1.98 LOWER AT 70.38/BBL
Crude prices were sold throughout the session with a stronger Dollar, China disappointment and Hurricane Rafael updates weighing.
Participants continue to digest the upcoming Trump Presidency and his “drill, baby, drill” narrative.
Near term more energy producers are shutting in production at the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Rafael. Potential downside as traders were less concerned about prolonged supply disruptions from the storm, with the effects seen to be more short-lived as latest NHC forecasts imply reduced the risk to oil production.
The BSEE announced today it has shut in 23% of oil production and 11% of natgas production in the Gulf, up from the 17% and 7% on Thursday.
Chinese stimulus updates continued to disappoint investors with little focusing on the demand side of the equation.
A WSJ article overnight suggesting that Trump will renew a maximum pressure campaign against Iran upon return to office.
WTI hit lows at USD 69.99 before paring marginally into settlement.
GOLD/SILVER:
– Silver fell to $31.5 per ounce, approaching the one-month low of $31.2 from November 6th as markets gauged future demand amid underwhelming stimulus from China and the higher rate outlook in the US.
The Chinese government announced a package of $1.4 trillion for local governments to swap off-balance sheet debt with Beijing and improve future financing costs, but refrained from announcing new flows of stimulus to specifically target the weak consumption in the economy. This hampered the outlook for industrial metals across all sectors, pressuring silver due to its high usage in electrification, specifically solar panels. Additionally, Chinese-owned solar panel companies reportedly started to cut production after Trump’s election victory in the US threatened higher tariffs in the sector.
Trump’s victory also pressured silver by raising the outlook on interest rates as the Fed is expected to keep borrowing costs high to offset expansionary fiscal policy in the upcoming administration.
Gold worst week since MAY
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.591 +0.01
US 6-MO: 4.457 +0.017
US 1-YR: 4.319 +0.023
US 5-YR: 4.193 +0.002
US 10-YR: 4.306 -0.035
US 30-YR: 4.472 -0.072
TWO’s/TENS: 0.05 -0.07
CRYPTO
– BTC ETF inflows exploded higher this week
– Ethereum surge to its best relative performance against BTC since May
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82QbMrg2HoI
Blaine!!!!!, More BLAINE!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8Ws4PEky28
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8Ojjn35kP8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUyJoojCLnc
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Pm6B38DzlIs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fv3fkcCrn6k
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmV3d5qomHc
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
