MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Dutch East India Co. Batavia, Indonesia.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Fed Reserve cuts by 25bp as Exp
– Fed Chair Powell stated that, in the near term, the election “will have no effect” on Fed decisions.
– Powell also noted that stronger-than-expected economic data has reduced “downside risks” but declined to comment on its impact on December’s policy plans.
– Most notably, removing language from the statement that Fed has “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainable toward 2 percent”.
– Also adding that labor market conditions have “generally eased” since earlier in the year, replacing “job gains have slowed”.
– BoE cuts by 25bp as EXP (2nd this yr)
– maintaining a cautious stance on further rate reductions.
– Policymakers emphasized the need for restrictive monetary policy, favoring a gradual easing approach.
– The central bank projected inflation to rise from 1.7% to around 2.5% by year-end.
– It estimated that recent Budget measures could boost GDP by approximately 0.75% at peak impact within a year, with a temporary inflation increase of nearly 0.5 percentage points.
– Traders continue to expect two more quarter-point reductions from the BoE by the end of next year, with just under a 50% chance of another.
– Initial jobless claims in line, but continued claims rise more than expected
– Riksbank cuts by 50bps & Norges holds
COMPANIES
– Warner Brothers Discovery +10% on strong streaming results
– Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation +18.5%
– Nissan Stock -6.5% after cutting 9000 jobs and production capacity amid weak sales
– DJTWW -26%
– Hershey (HSY) released earnings per share at 2.34 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.56
– Qualcomm soared almost 4% after beating on both earnings and revenue
– Gilead Sciences was also 5.9% higher after increasing its 2024 guidance
GENERAL:
– Since the last FOMC Gold and stocks up, while crude prices have collapsed, and Bitcoin has broken up
– But mortgage rates has soared since last Fed
– VIX back at support
– Euro Bourses close higher. CAC +0.8%, UK closes -0.3%, DAX 1.79%
– The percentage of voters rating the economy as their top issue has dropped in recent elections
-After raising over $1 billion and left with $118 million in the bank as of October 16, the Harris campaign ended the 2024 election season with “at least $20 million in debt,” according to Politico’s Christopher Cadelago.
– Germany’s three-party ruling coalition which had been on the verge of collapse for months, imploded on Wednesday evening after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he will fire Finance Minister Christian Lindner over persistent rifts on spending and economic reforms, a move that paves the way for a snap election at the end of March.
– Soros backed LA DA replaced
– China exports beat, imports miss
– Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar down
Ahead:
– French Trade Balance, Italian Industrial Output, Canadian Jobs, US UoM Inflation Prelim/Sentiment, Chinese Money Supply
Speakers:
– ECB’s Cipollone; BoC’s Gravelle; Fed’s Bowman, Musalem
Earnings:
– LEG Immobilien, Bechtle, Richemont, Vistry Group, Rightmove, International Consolidated Airlines Group, Paramount Global, Sony
MAJORS:
DX:
– Erased most of the election spike
EQUITIES:
– Mixed Equities with NAS Soaring, Dow failing
– Tech lead by Megacap
EUR:
– DAX: +1.72% at 19,368, FTSE 100: -0.32% at 8,141, CAC 40: +0.76% at 7,426, Euro Stoxx 50: +1.06% at 4,852
US: SPX +0.74% at 5,973, NDX +1.54% at 21,102, DJIA flat at 43,729, RUT -0.43% at 2,383
Sectors: Financials -1.62%, Industrials -0.6%, Energy -0.36%, Utilities +0.15%, Consumer Staples +0.37%, Materials +0.5%, Health +0.64%, Real Estate +1.19%, Consumer Discretionary +1.37%, Technology +1.83%, Communication Services +1.92%
OIL:
WTI (Z4) SETTLED USD 0.67 HIGHER AT 72.36/BBL; BRENT(F5) SETTLED USD 0.71 HIGHER AT 75.63/BBL
The crude complex was choppy on Thursday but saw gains throughout the US session.
On the day, WTI and Brent saw upside through the overnight session on NHC/BSEE updates and later extended through European hours on heightened geopolitical risk.
Recapping, Kann News wrote “The preparation for an Iranian attack: the US moved a squadron of F15s to the Middle East – after dozens of fighter jets and 6 B-52 strategic bombers were moved to the region last week”, referencing recent flight radar data.
Thereafter, crude benchmarks pared the strength through the EU afternoon to hit lows of USD 70.66/bbl and 74.02, respectively. However, in the US session, WTI and Brent saw notable strength, potentially aided by the Dollar weakness as it saw a pause from the recent Trump-induced rally, to settle just off highs.
Note, that there was little move in oil after the Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected. Report courtesy of newsquark.
GOLD/SILVER:
– Stabilized after getting hit post- election. Gold at $2700 and Silver $32
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.572 -0.008
US 6-MO: 4.427 -0.016
US 1-YR: 4.282 -0.036
US 5-YR: 4.174 -0.098
US 10-YR: 4.33 -0.096
US 30-YR: 4.534 -0.066
TWO’s/TENS: 0.13 -0.03
CRYPTO
– Trump exuberance continues with a break above to new highs
– ETH OUT-performed BTC surging
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/w0wiPdfM_8o
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cDblsidXslY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbsFYe2xOx8
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pgMv8rH_rk
LIVE:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PeuFs4pWwc
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzMQniGRVnM
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec9DLvlCzPk
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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