MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
2024
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way–in short, the period was so far like the present period that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.”
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– The Dow Jones Index Closes 3.56% Higher, up over 1500 points
COMPANIES
– CVS Health (CVS) released earnings per share at 1.09 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.55
– Anheuser-Busch decreased to a 12-month low of 53.52 EUR. Over the past 4 weeks, Anheuser-Busch lost 9.67%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.11%
– Cisco Systems increased to a 14-month high of 57.17 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Cisco Systems gained 8.76%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.13%
– Wells Fargo increased to an all-time high of 72.96 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Wells Fargo gained 12.19%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 55.15%
Coca-Cola decreased to a 16-week low of 63.77 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Coca-Cola lost 5.18%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 14.74%
Bank Of America increased to a 32-month high of 45.17 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Bank Of America gained 4.97%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 48.22%
– Citigroup increased to a 35-month high of 69.42 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Citigroup gained 1.69%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 51.45%
– Qualcomm (QCOM) released earnings per share at 2.69 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.56
– Morgan Stanley +12%
– Bank of America +9%
GENERAL:
– Trump leading in Nevada, Arzona and Alaska.
– Likely 312 electoral votes for Trump
– Harris concedes
– Euro Falls The Most Since 2020
– The euro plummeted over 1.8% to $1.072, its lowest level in about four months and on track for its worst day since March 2020 as a Trump victory in the US presidential election strengthened the dollar
– Russian Ruble Hits 12-month Low
– USDRUB increased to a 12-month high of 100.41. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Russian Ruble gained 2.04%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.58%.
– The MOEX (Russian stock index) surged more than 2.6% to around the 2680 level, marking its strongest one-day rally in a year, as global stock markets rose following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.
– South Korean won hits 23-month low. USDKRW increased to a 23-month high of 1401.00. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar South Korean Won gained 4.26%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.36%
– US Natgas Prices Edge Up Ahead Hurricane Rafael
– Top commodity gainers are Natural gas (2.69%) and Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (0.85%). Biggest losers are Heating Oil (-0.95%), Natural Gas UK GBP (-0.88%), Brent Crude Oil (-0.52%) and Crude Oil WTI (-0.18%)
– Top commodity losers are Copper (-5.09%), Silver (-4.55%) and Gold (-2.83%)
– Crypto SURGE, SURGE!
– Strong US 30yr auction
– Bigger EIA crude builds than expected
– Punchy Rhetoric between Lebanon/Israel
– German Chancellor Scholz fires Lindner, to hold confidence vote in mid-Jan
– EU antitrust regulators investigate V and MA over fee impact on retailers
– SMCI prelim earnings disappoint.
– Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up
Week ahead:
– FOMC TOMORROW!
– Australian Goods/Services Imports, German Industrial Output, EZ Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventory, Chinese Trade Balance
Speakers:
– ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, Elderson; BoE Governor Bailey; Fed Chair
Earnings:
MAJORS:
DX:
– The dollar index saw its largest move since March 2020 on Wednesday as Donald Trump won the 2024 US Presidency and the Senate.
Participants view Trump’s policies of tariffs, tax cuts, less regulation and spending as supportive of an inflationary theme, thus, speculative gains in recent weeks in the dollar on a Trump presidency were confirmed and extended.
The outcome of the House, however, still awaits and could determine the extent of the move higher, though folks at Decision Desk put a 92% probability at pixel time of a Republican majority.
Looking ahead, the Fed’s policy announcement is awaited at its November meeting, where money markets price a 99% chance of a 25bps rate cut. Moreover, weekly claims data is expected at 221k, while Wholesale Sales monthly figures for September are expected to grow 0.2%.
G10FX:
Completely in the red as the “Trump Trade” sent the entire space tumbling.
Surging US yields weighed on the Yen, which was amongst the worst performers with the Euro.
Issues including tariffs, defence and Ukraine are causes for concern for the Euro in a second Trump Presidency, as Rabobank pointed out, adding, “The drop in shorter-dated German yields this morning suggested that the market’s initial appraisal of the US election news was that growth concerns would prompt the ECB to cut interest rates by more than it would have down otherwise”, although, such a conclusion, “could be flawed”.
USD/JPY climbed to the mid-range of the 154 handle, going beyond its 200 DMA (151.62), while EUR/USD slumped below its 21 DMA (1.0854) and 200 DMA (1.0869) to levels last visited in July 2024.
There were numerous final upward revisions to European PMI data in October, but that was not the focus today.
CAD, AUD, and NZD, relatively outperformed their peers but still saw notable pressure vs the buck.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: -1.14% at 19,037, FTSE 100: -0.07% at 8,167, CAC 40: -0.51% at 7,370, Euro Stoxx 50: -1.47% at 4,799
US:
– SPX +2.53% at 5,929, NDX +2.74% at 20,781, DJIA +3.57% at 43,730, RUT +5.84% at 2,393
Sectors:
– Real Estate -2.64%, Consumer Staples -1.57%, Utilities -0.98%, Health +0.15%, Materials +1.2%, Communication Services +2.38%, Technology +2.52%, Energy +3.54%, Consumer Discretionary +3.62%, Industrials +3.93%, Financials +6.16%
GOLD/SILVER:
Silver prices sank to below $32 per ounce on Wednesday, the level in nearly one month, after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential victory strengthened the dollar and prompted investors to unwind safe-haven positions. The presidential race was less competitive than anticipated, and the outcome is not expected to be contested.
Markets also priced a backdrop of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, limiting demand for bullion instead of assets that yield interest. The Republican nominee campaigned on raising tariffs and delivering tax cuts, thus supporting expectations of higher deficits and inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed is set to deliver a 25bps interest rate cut tomorrow and is expected to provide insights on balancing the risks of persistent inflation with a softening job market.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT9s4BXcv6w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWUxDtraNcc
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d3RYW0YoEk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX2MhqpHfxI
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-wqg8ElVu4Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62n53fL4tcU
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXOok5J_M3M
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
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