MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Fleet of the Dutch East India company
In order to finance the ongoing war against the Spanish, the merchants that sponsored voyages to the East banded together and formed the Dutch East India Company in 1602. The legislative branch of the Dutch Republic (1581-1795) bestowed upon the Dutch East India Company a 21-year charter (a written grant), giving the company autonomy over all financial, political and defensive endeavors. This gave the company the right to monopolize the trade in that area, to train an army, to declare war and to occupy foreign land. The Amsterdam Stock Exchange was created with the sole purpose of the funding this new company, through the selling of shares in exchange for a part of any future profits. This proved to be a popular idea among the Dutch, with the company raising over 6 million guilders (this would value at $110 million today). The AEX became the world’s first stock market and the bedrock of modern capitalism, while the Dutch East India Company became the world’s first publicly traded company.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
SUNNY HOSTIN “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
KAMALA HARRIS “There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.”
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– NOTHING MATTERS EXCEPT THE ELECTION TOMORROW!
– US Factory Orders fell 0.5% MoM (confirming the flash print) in September, which dragged orders down 1.6% YoY
COMPANIES
– Marriott International (MAR) released earnings per share at 2.26 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.31
– DJT stock jumps 10% on election spec
GENERAL:
– IPC decreased to a 12-month low of 50519.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, IPC Mexico lost 3.21%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.44%
– Arguably another “Trump Trade” continues to build as the Mexican Peso plunges to its weakest since Sept 2022
– Euro Bourses close lower
– Profit-taking on the so-called “Trump Trade” after extreme outperformance of the Kamala basket in recent weeks
– VIX ended the day notably elevated with the vol term structure extremely inverted ahead of this week’s extreme event risks
– In fact this is the VIX’s longest stretch above its 200dma since 2019:
– Washington STATE activates National Guard pre election (So the post election outcome THREAT is NOT from MAGA but rather the left…..)
– China NPC reviews local government debt swap; China not planning “bazooka” stimulus for this year
– Israel estimates that Iran is ready to respond, but timing is unclear
– Moldova votes for pro-war alignment with NATO
– Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar flat.
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
Week ahead:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
Speakers:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
Earnings:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
MAJORS:
DX:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
AUSSIE:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
POUND:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
US:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
Sectors:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures surged 3% to $71.50 per barrel on Monday following OPEC+’s decision to postpone planned output increases by a month. The group announced it would extend its current output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) into December, delaying an earlier planned increase of 180,000 bpd due to falling prices and weak demand.
Concerns about a potential retaliatory strike by Iran on Israel in the coming days also weighed.
Market attention is also focused on the US presidential election set for Tuesday, where polls indicate a tight race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump.
Additionally, economists anticipate a 25 bps interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Thursday.
In China, the National People’s Congress will meet this week to discuss additional stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the slowing economy, primarily to address local government debt.
$72 RES?
GOLD/SILVER:
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
BONDS:
– – ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO:
US 6-MO:
US 1-YR:
US 5-YR:
US 10-YR:
US 30-YR:
TWO’s/TENS:
CRYPTO
– ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION ELECTION
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJtWaNoyLcs
(I had too!)
Little more lighthearted:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qm1qDHnZqE
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT67liGjZhw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyv-KWf_AlI
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llPKgjyT1RU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CINep9Gqhk
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKaTHc-0fR4
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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