MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Dollar UP. Dollar up smalls vs AUD at 66.07, Almost up one percent vs EUR at 91.82, over half a percent vs Pound 126.25, and almost 1% vs the Yen, 148.19. Dow/ES UP (D up 500 points), ND down smalls. Crude HIT 2.75%, Gold and Silver consolidate levels. Coins rest with BTC UNCH, ETH up smalls.
– Global Bonds best month since Dec 08. US bonds best month since MAY 1985!
– Hedge Funds least net long since 2007
– Dow jumps 500 points to new 2023 High
– Global Bond and Stock markets added over 11 trillion in capitalization/ second biggest monthly gain in history (Nov 2020 $12.5T)
– Stock Index’s added 8-10% Nov (FOMO)
– Tech and real estate winners, energy only industry in red
– VIX plunged to biggest decline in a year.
Upcoming:
Australian; Commodity prices YoY, (Monday): TD Inflation, ANZ job Ads, Retail Sales, Investment lending, Bus inventories
CAD: Unemployment,
US: ISM
Speakers: Fed’s; POWELL, Goolsebee, ECB: Lagarde.
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar regained ground across the board as the sell-off took a rest amid yesterdays mixed Fed signals putting a brake on the Index’s decline. Index touched 102.70 overnight before breaking above the 103 handle pre-open and steadily griding higher all session to close just off highs.
AUD:
Early weakness reversed with the AUD touching 65.75 in morning trading before surging to 66.35 in short order and meandering back to the figure for the latter half of the session.
“Again feel we’re rangey 65-67 for foreseeable. Trade accordingly.”
Yest Mkt Report.
Still hold this view. Sub 65.50 Id be looking for a turn.
EUR:
“…believe the USDEUR will rest from its decline from its Oct 1st highs of 95 cents. Don’t expect a break of 91 to hold with movements sub/around 90.80 value for a turn. Look for the turn. We may see a re-test of 92. 90.85 to 91.95 near term.”
Yest Mkt Report
Range today 91.04 to 91.89. The expected strength I called materialized with a solid move higher. Overnight touched 91.60, moving back to 91.40 before a move and close on the highs. 91 even settling in as a rejection and base. I’d expect further upside with a look to 92.50 in more short covering. 91.60 to 92.60 would be my immediate call with another look to the upside.
Pound Pound:
“As above I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rest up here. Id be looking at fading strength 127.20 for a look back at 126.”
Yest Mkt Report.
We touched 127.10 overnight before hitting 126.06. Called it almost to the pip. I do want to clarify my writing to those new to the blog. My writing can be ambiguous and imprecise at times, as I research and write on multiple sectors, daily, I don’t have the luxury of review and precision. For future reference when I state “I’d be looking at fading strength around 127.20” I don’t specifically mean “wait until it gets to 127.20 then sell”, what I actually mean is the pound is toppy (it was 126.95 at time of writing) and further strength SHOULD be faded but its ALSO TOPPY AND A MOVE DOWN IS EXPECTED AND ACTED UPON. It is a frustration that I cannot adequately timewise convey trading approaches to every recommendation it is IMPLIED that both approaches are to be utilized if it is not said. The implication is what Im trying to convey, the approach is implicit. Please bear this in mind as Ill never hit the exact pip or price stated, it’s the overall movement which is trying to be conveyed. The I like a price, its an AREA FOR ACTION. Please don’t just place a bid or offer at a random price, you’ll either miss things or simply get run over. I recommend AREAS OF PRICE ACTION which may indicate opportunity IF a) EVERYTHING ELSE IS EQUAL and B) THE MARKET CONFIRMS MY PERSEPCTIVE.
So although the market hit 127.10 before hitting 126.06, with my recommendation 10 pips out on the up and 6 pips on the down, the 104 pip CORRECT call is what Im recommending to action.
I hope this clarifies as its important.
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
Yen: I omitted the Yen yesterday (on error) but would’ve had a similar view as I liked 147 to hold and was of the opinion the dollar sell-off was going to bounce. 147 overnight lead to hitting 147.75, a retrace to 147.35 (Anything sub 147.50 was GOLD as the move was UP and a retrace is a superb opportunity to get onboard. I would’ve waited until the retrace was rejected and the return to the upward momentum was again clear (a buy around late 147.55-60 wouldve been my entry) . A profit take between 148.15-148.10 wouldve been the obvious move as a retest of the figure was likely with a view of jumping back on post the long squeeze out (upward momentum re-confirmed 147.95ish (a little lower for those with higher risk, a little higher for those without).
Where too from here?
Feel we move towards 149 with a 147-149 range for the immediate.
Gold and Silver Dollar strength capped Gold but Silver developing hard floor at $25 the handle finished positive. Gold was off $11/0.57% to $2055 with Silver +0.22 pips/+0.87% to close at 25.67.
No real feeling here we could easily see a temp cap with Dollar strength returning for the while and a fall back to the $2015 or with no panic in sight today and a hold above $2050, any dollar weakness will see $2100 and stops.
US Equities:
The Dow Jones surged 520 points to a new 2023 high on Thursday, propelled by a remarkable 9.2% jump in Salesforce shares and a slowdown in PCE inflation measures. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.2%. October saw a deceleration in all PCE inflation measures, coupled with a moderation in personal spending, and continuing jobless claims reaching a two-year high. Cooling PCE data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with its tightening cycle, potentially signaling rate cuts in spring 2024. Among sectors, healthcare, industrials and financials outperformed while tech dragged the most. Along with the gains from Salesforce after its outperformance in Q3, United Health also contributed to the blue-chip rally, advancing sharply by 3.4% to hit a 52-week high of $552.98. For November, the three major averages marked their best performance since late 2022, with the S&P 500 up 7.8%, the Nasdaq 8.9%, and the Dow showed an 8% increase.
Equities courtesy of Trading Economics
https://tradingeconomics.com/
Oil:
OPEC+ states announced a slight increase in crude oil output cuts in the first quarter of 2024 following a series of disagreements, which was insufficient to trigger concerns of low supply in global markets. In the meantime, new data from the EIA pointed to lower demand. Gasoline stocks in the United States soared by 1.76 million barrels in the week ending November 24th, the most in nearly two months, and sharply above market expectations of a 0.75 million barrel build. The development occurred as product supplied, one of the market’s favorite gauges for US gasoline demand, fell by 0.274 million barrels to 8.2 million. Among higher interest rates, volatile fossil fuel market dynamics, and increased work-from-home jobs, the results aligned with the body’s latest research that forecasts a 1% decline in US consumption.
Oil report courtesy of Trading Economics
https://tradingeconomics.com/
Bond Yields:
1 Mo: 5.388 -0.003 6Mo 5.41 +0.002 1yr 5.147 +0.032 5yr 4.282 +0.063 10yr 4.342 +0.071 and the 30yr 4.505 +0.054
2’s/10’s -0.36
Crytpo:
BTC unch at the gong at 37750 (37500 to 37900 rge) with ETH up three quarters of a percent at time of writing at 2045 (2025-2050 rge). Movements of funds back into the dollar and denominated instruments capped the coins on a low vol day.
Still like buying dips for another leg upward. 40k and 2250 are favoured. May see an opportunity for weakness to exploit. Anything close to 36.5 and sub 2000 is gold. Doubt will see those levels, but look for near.
Best of luck out there.
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.
As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
