MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Monte-Carlo
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Both PCE and core PCE prices rose in line with expectations while personal income and spending were stronger-than-anticipated
– Core PCE increased 0.3% (2.8% YoY)
– +0.2% (2.3% YoY)
– meeting forecasts but suggesting progress toward the Fed’s 2% target has stalled
– GDP growth for Q3 was unrevised at 2.8%
– Durable goods orders rose less than expected
– Initial claims unexpectedly steadied at 7-month lows of 213K
– Pending home sales unexpectedly rose
GENERAL:
– Trump appointed Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative (served 1st term)
– Trump appointed Kevin Hassett as director of the National Economic Council
– Euro Bourses closed lower, UK up smalls
– The Russian ruble plunged nearly 7% to trade at more than 110 per USD, the lowest on record excluding the short-lived selling immediately after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, as more sanctions against Russia dampened the outlook for inflows of foreign capital.
– The US sanctioned Gazprombank, the last major financial institution without penalties, to halt the transfer of payments from foreign markets to pay for Russian gas. The US also sanctioned 49 other banks, driving markets to pile on foreign currency to pay counterparties before being further shunned from the global financial system.
The ruble remained under pressure from Moscow relaxing capital controls as a weaker currency aids the Kremlin’s ability to finance its budget. Mandatory forex conversion for export revenues fell 25% from earlier in the year, significantly reducing demand for rubles.
– France’s 10Y yield spread to Germany’s has soared up to over 85bps – its highest since the European financial crisis
– Markets now anticipate a 34% probability to the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at its December meeting, up from 24% a month ago
– Dollar down, Gold flat, Silver down, Equities down small (ND leads), Crude flat, BTC SURGE (lead by ETH)
Ahead:
– Both the stock and bond market will close on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Trading will resume on Black Friday, but wrap up early, with the stock market closing at 1 p.m. and the bond market at 2 p.m.
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures dipped to $68.30 per barrel on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive day of losses, as traders reacted to the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report and weighed geopolitical developments and upcoming OPEC+ decisions.
The EIA report revealed a surprise build in US gasoline inventories ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, while crude oil stockpiles fell more than expected, with imports from Mexico at a record low.
Tensions in the Middle East eased briefly with a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, though uncertainty lingers after hawkish comments from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, raising doubts about the truce’s longevity.
Markets are also focused on Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where a potential delay in a planned output increase could address concerns of oversupply.
President-elect Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada, including crude oil. Report courtesy of newsquawk.
CRYPTO
-ETHBTC Dead-cat bounce?
6mnth chart
– Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Sold 728,000 BTC in 30 Days – CryptoQuant
– The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell once again. It’s down 1.3% over the past 24 hours to $3.37 trillion.
– During this time, total crypto trading volume recorded $287 billion.
– Despite the drop in market cap, only eight coins of the top 100 are red today, and most of them saw a fall below 1%.
– Analysts claim crypto capital rotation is driving Ethereum, Cardano and Solana gains
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5bXyEvxnkzM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrbVrJe00a0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THbD84t4ikE
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHsip5xOenQ
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lk8mOSWGw0s
Petrol Suitcase?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aY0a6UA1ymY
House of the day:
https://nantucketcurrent.com/news/barstool-sports-founder-dave-portnoy-buys-44-million-nantucket-compound-a-new-record
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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