MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Who owned this French Riviera Villa? Answer end of report
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Current US national economic activity fell in October for the fifth straight month, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
– The Chicago Fed national index, which draws on 85 economic indicators, was -0.4 in October (the weakest since January) versus -0.27 in September.
– According to the report, three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index – production, employment, and personal consumption/housing – decreased from September
– Germany’s Ifo worsens
– falling more than expected to 85.7 (exp. 86, prev. 86.5)
COMPANIES
– Bath & Body Works (+16.5%) surged on a strong earnings forecast
– MicroStrategy (-4.4%) made a record $5.4 billion Bitcoin purchase.
– Macy’s (-2.3%) shares dropped after delaying its Q3 earnings release due to an investigation uncovering over $100 million in hidden expenses
– Lockheed Martin decreased to a 16-week low of 528.53 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Lockheed Martin lost 4.65%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 18.84%
– Nike increased to a 4-week high of 79.63 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Nike lost 0.65%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 26.06%
GENERAL:
– Trump announces hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary
– US Yields dump in response
– Fed’s Goolsbee closer to median on neutral rate estimate (2.9%)
– Israel & Lebanon agree to terms of ceasefire deal
– US2000 increased to an all-time high of 2459.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, United States Stock Market Index (US2000) gained 9.56%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 36.5%
– Euro Bourses Higher
– EU officials say EU is not close to deal with China on EV tariffs
– Viral petition demanding UK General Election hits 2 million signatures in under a week (UK Parliament is obligated to debate all petitions over 100k sigs)
– The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3% to surpass the 25,510 mark on Monday, extending its record high with six consecutive sessions of gains amid broad-based increases in line with U.S. peers, offsetting sharp losses in key mining stocks, closed lower on day.
– Dow Jones hitting a new record, climbing over 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 0.2%
– Platinum futures fell to $950 per ounce, not far from the two-month low of $930 touched on November 13th, tracking the broad decline for bullion assets as markets pared their demand for safety
– Natural gas Spikes by 7.44%
– Corn futures dipped toward $4.20 per bushel in late November amid ample supplies and demand concerns
– Arabica Coffee Futures Hits Over 47-1/2-Year Peak driven by poor crop prospects in Brazil
– Coffee increased to a 27-1/2-year high of 309.90 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee gained 25.06%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 72.32%.
– Trump considering ban on transgenders in the military
– Biggest commodity losers are Silver (-3.72%), Gold (-3.50%) and Platinum (-2.84%).
– Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold & Silver SMOKED
– FOMC TOMORROW:
– The minutes will be released at 19:00GMT/14:00EST, but will likely be deemed as stale given recent data and commentary.
– Recent Fed speak has seen Chair Powell state data shows that the Fed does not need to be in a hurry to cut rates
– Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: December 13bps (prev. 13bps), January 19bps (prev. 19bps), March 33bps (prev. 32bps)
Ahead:
– FOMC Minutes, US Build Permits, Richmond Fed Index
Week Ahead:
– Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday sales
Speakers:
– ECB’s Rehn; BoC’s Mendes
Earnings:
– Abercrombie, Kohl’s, Best Buy, Analog Devices, Dell, CrowdStrike, HPE
MAJORS:
DX:
– The dollar index was modestly lower as US yields took a dive following President-elect Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent is seen as more fiscally conservative than Trump given his hedge fund and finance backgrounds and would also like a more gradualist approach to implementing Trump tariffs.
Looking into the week, FOMC Minutes (Nov), Richmond Fed, and New Home Sales Units are due. Subsequently, on Wednesday, the main events are due, namely, Core PCE, GDP 2nd Est (Q3), Durable Goods (Oct) and weekly Initial Claims.
POUND:
– BoE’s Watchers conference, with remarks from BoE’s Dhingra (Dove) and Lombardelli (Neutral). On Friday’s PMI report, Lombardelli noted it may suggest some slowing, but “I don’t take a strong signal from one event”, and separately, views the probabilities of downside/upside risks to inflation as broadly balanced.
BoE’s Dhingra said the fall in services PPI appears to be slowing but probably due to erratic components, and that there is a disinflationary risk within the UK.
EURO:
– Regarding US tariffs, ECB’s Nagel said they pose a ‘real risk’ for boosting Euro-zone inflation.
Next for Euro watchers are expected remarks from ECB’s Rehn on Wednesday
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: +0.45% at 19,410, FTSE 100: +0.36% at 8,292, CAC 40: +0.03% at 7,257, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.21% at 4,799
US:
– SPX +0.30% at 5,987, NDX +0.14% at 20,805, DJIA +0.99% at 44,737, RUT +1.47% at 2,442
Sectors:
– Energy -2.01%, Technology -0.35%, Utilities +0.20%, Consumer Staples +0.37%, Financials +0.61%, Industrials +0.66%, Communication Services +0.76%, Health +0.90%, Materials +0.94%, Consumer Discretionary +0.99%, Real Estate +1.28%
OIL:
– WTI crude futures dropped 3.2% on Monday, settling at $68.90 per barrel, following reports suggesting Israel and Hezbollah may be close to reaching a cease-fire agreement within days. Traders cautiously viewed the news as a positive sign, but doubts persist due to past failed cease-fires.
Iran announced plans to expand its nuclear fuel production following criticism from the UN atomic watchdog, preparing for potential sanctions under a possible second Trump administration.
Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov indicated that OPEC+ may keep current oil production cuts in place starting January 1, as the group continues to delay planned output increases due to demand concerns. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for December 1 and will be held online.
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold had its worst decline since November 2020 in response to the calming of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.637 +0.023
US 6-MO: 4.564 +0.005
US 1-YR: 4.381 -0.032
US 5-YR: 4.178 -0.120
US 10-YR: 4.277 -0.133
US 30-YR: 4.467 -0.128
TWO’s/TENS: 0.00 -0.04
CRYPTO
– Five days after Howard Lutnick was appointed as President-elect Donald Trump’s secretary of commerce, his financial services firm – Cantor Fitzgerald – reportedly has taken a 5% stake in stablecoin issuer Tether.
– The 5% stake was valued at as much as $600 million when the agreement was made, WSJ said in the Nov. 24 report, citing information from business associates familiar with the matter.
– It could mean Tether will receive more political support as Cantor Fitzgerald’s CEO Howard Lutnick was selected as United States President-elect Donald Trump’s secretary of commerce on Nov. 19.
– Giancarlo Devasini, suspected to be the largest shareholder of Tether, reportedly said words to the effect of: Lutnick will use his political clout to try to defuse threats facing Tether, WSJ claimed.
– BTC/ETH spread narrowed by 6% with ETH +4.5% and BTC -1.5% on the day
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-FXGiO58MU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkbC-rH3frY
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NI04bEI8LEw
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKImmIQ4omQ
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/AxSKbKE7Bsw
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RcFTZKxtudY
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uSe2oR1DgY&sttick=0
Villa:
Sean Connery’s Villa
https://www.oceanhomemag.com/home-design/a-look-inside-sean-connerys-french-riviera-villa/
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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