MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Villa Roquebrune – Cap Marten, $37m Euro
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– US Services PMI Soaring To 32-Month High
– Flash US PMI Composite Output Index: 55.3 (Oct: 54.1). 31-month high
– Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 57.0 (Oct: 55.0). 32-month high
– Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 (Oct: 48.5). 4-month high
– French, German, and EZ Flash PMIs all disappoint
– UK Retail sales decline more than expected, PMI misses
GENERAL:
– China unveiled measures to boost foreign trade, raising expectations for higher energy product imports
– Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi has been selected as U.S. attorney general, following Matt Gaetz’s withdrawal from consideration
– Republican Party’s US Senate majority has now been finalized at 53 seats, after three-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey conceded the Pennsylvania race on Thursday.
– According to the newly released poll by Puck News/Echelon Insights, 41% of likely Democratic voters would vote for Harris to be on the Democratic ticket in 2028. The poll also revealed that Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., received a second place (8%), and Gov. Josh Shapiro, D-Pa., who could’ve been Harris’s vice president this cycle, received a third place (7%).
– Germany states wont arrest Netanyahu
– Biden expected to impose new export curbs on China soon
– Putin says they will start serial production of new missile
– NY ‘Hush Money’ Judge Grants Trump Request To File For Dismissal, Postpones Sentencing Indefinitely
– The Mexican peso weakened toward 20.5 per USD, nearing its lowest level since July 2022 of 20.59
– Cocoa Futures Up to Near 3-Month High
– The S&P/TSX (Canada) Composite Index rose 0.2% to surpass the 25,440 mark on Friday, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains and setting a fresh record high, with a weekly advance of over 2.2%
– The rally was fueled by the Canadian government’s proposal of $6.3 billion in new spending to stimulate the economy.
– Euro Bourses finish stronger
– Energy Commodities Updates: Natural gas Slumps by 7.18%
– Crude Oil Secures Weekly Gains of Over 5%, Amid Geopolitical Tensions
– All three major indices booked gains to end a volatile week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.7% each, while the Dow rose by 2.1%.
– Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude up, Dollar up
Ahead:
– German Ifo Expectations, NZ Retail Sales Volumes (Q3)
Week Ahead:
– US PCE, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ rate decision, EZ HICP, and Australian CPI
– Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday sales
Speakers:
– BoE’s Lombardelli, Dhingra; ECB’s Lane, Makhlouf.
Earnings:
– Bath & Body Works, Autozone, Zoom
MAJORS:
DX:
– The dollar index rose further to over 107.5 on Friday, its highest level in over two years, supported by a weaker euro.
The index rose sharply after weaker-than-expected Eurozone PMI data triggered a fresh decline in the euro, which makes up for more than half of the weight of the DXY basket.
Contractionary PMIs from Japan and the UK data also pressured the following two heaviest currencies in the index. These contrasted sharply with strong economic data from the US, as a strong S&P PMI extended support from low initial unemployment claims from the prior session.
1YR
POUND:
– The British pound weakened to below $1.26, the lowest since mid-May, as traders react to disappointing economic data.
Retail sales fell by a bigger-than-expected 0.7% in October and flash PMIs also came below forecasts, pointing to a fractional decline in business activity during November, as services slowed sharply and manufacturing contracted.
Meanwhile, annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September, exceeding both the BoE’s target and market expectations of 2.2%. Services inflation, which the central bank view as a key measure of domestically generated price pressure, edged up to 5% from 4.9%.
Most analysts expect the Bank of England to leave borrowing costs steady in December, with the odds for a quarter-point reduction currently standing around 14%.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: +0.83% at 19,306, FTSE 100: +1.38% at 8,262, CAC 40: +0.58% at 7,255, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.72% at 4,790
US:
– SPX +0.35% at 5,969, NDX +0.17% at 20,776, DJIA +0.97% at 44,297, RUT +1.80% at 2,407
Sectors:
– Communication Services -0.69%, Utilities -0.66%, Technology -0.22%, Health +0.08%, Energy +0.11%, Materials +0.55%, Real Estate +0.84%, Consumer Staples +1.02%, Financials +1.11%, Consumer Discretionary +1.18%, Industrials +1.36%
OIL:
– Risks to fuel exports from Russia emerged after Ukraine launched its second Western-supplied missile into Russia, driving the latter to respond by firing its first intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine.
Markets are now eyeing the OPEC+ meeting on December 1st, with speculation that output increases may be delayed once again.
GOLD/SILVER:
– The gold market has ended a three-week selloff with a vengeance, as prices look set to close Friday above $2,700 an ounce.
Not only has gold surpassed last week’s losses, but the precious metal is also experiencing its best rally since October 2023. As of 1:40 p.m. ET, December gold futures were trading at $2,712 an ounce, up 1.39% for the week. Additionally, prices have risen 5.4% since the start of the week.
“Gold has very quickly recovered despite continued headwinds from a stronger dollar. Its relative performance to silver underscores why this rally has been a safe-haven rally, leading to fresh momentum buying from investors who had been waiting for a pullback,” said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.612 +0.013
US 6-MO: 4.499 +0.009
US 1-YR: 4.419 +0.026
US 5-YR: 4.304 UNCH
US 10-YR: 4.408 -0.024
US 30-YR: 4.594 -0.027
TWO’s/TENS: 0.03 -0.05
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aItenab4ik8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5wVaNknEkY&t=627s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDMWeMfun7U&list=PLPGifL5wOEZx8NnMNfd9FjIz0rm469Bpk
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxMaEjwQlEk
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SF4QBzEL09Y
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kF0JKtMOO8
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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