MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
France Cote D’Azur, $20E for the blue house
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Philly Fed fell in November (from +10.3 to -5.5 vs +8.0 exp)
– Continuing Jobless claims topped 1.9mm Americans for the first time in three years (initial claims dropped)
– Initial claims positive
– Leading Index dropped 0.4% (more than expected)
– Existing home sales were positive
COMPANIES
– NVDA 3rd Qtr Earnings beat though disappointing Rev forecast +0.5%
– Google -4.5% down after the US Department of Justice confirmed it’s pushing for Google to spinoff or sell Chrome
– Deere & Company (DE) released earnings per share at 4.55 USD, compared to market expectations of 3.89 USD
MSTR MONSTERED. Opening at 535 up to 543 before getting SMOKED to 371
GENERAL:
– Matt Gaetz withdrawals from consideration for AG
– Jussie Smolett’s conviction overturned on technicality
– Euro Bourses close higher
– Senate kills Sander’s attempts to block Weapons for Israel
– Bitcoin ETFs now collectively manage approximately $104 billion, and are on track to surpass gold ETFs in net assets.
– Gensler announces he is stepping down from SEC chair
– The dollar index was little changed around 96.6 on Thursday, hovering close to two-year highs touched last week, as traders awaited more details on Trump’s policies and continued to price in less aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed
– Fed’s Williams expects the disinflationary process to continue
– Barkin leaves doors open
– Schmid believes rates aren’t overly restrictive
– Goolsbee says rates are well above neutral
– ECB’s Stournaras says a 25bps cut a Dec is the right response
– The Turkish lira was around 34.5 per USD, hovering close to record low levels
– European natural gas futures extended their increase to over €48 per megawatt-hour, the highest in one year, amid bets of stronger demand and risks of supply disruptions
– US natural gas prices soared by over 6% for a 2nd consecutive session toward $3.4/MMBtu, the highest in one year, as forecasts of colder weather lifted the outlook on heating demand
– Ukraine uses long range missiles inside Russia, Russia sends ICBM against Kiev in response
– Rate-cut expectations continued to slide with less than three full 25bp cuts now priced-in by the end of 2025
Ahead:
– Japanese, EZ, UK, US PMIs, UK Retail Sales
Speakers:
– ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel, Villeroy, de Guindos, Schnabel; SNB’s Schlegel; Fed’s Bowman
Earnings:
–
MAJORS:
DX:
YEN:
– Ueda mentioned that the central bank would closely examine multiple datasets leading up to its rate review next month and carefully consider the potential economic and price outlook impacts of yen fluctuations. The governor also emphasized that decisions would be made ‘meeting by meeting’ based on newly available information. Traders believe that the BoJ is laying the groundwork for another interest rate increase. On Monday, Ueda stated that the economy was progressing towards sustained inflation driven by wages, and increasing borrowing costs from ultra-low levels would promote long-term economic growth. Investors are now eagerly awaiting Japan’s October inflation data, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain insights into the economic outlook.
EQUITIES:
– ND lagged as small Caps higher
EUR:
– DAX: +0.75% at 19,147, FTSE 100: +0.79% at 8,149, CAC 40: +0.21% at 7,213, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.59% at 4,757
US:
– SPX +0.53% at 5,949, NDX +0.36% at 20,741, DJIA +1.06% at 43,870, RUT +1.65% at 2,364
Sectors:
– Communication Services -1.73%, Consumer Discretionary -0.3%, Technology +0.56%, Real Estate +0.64%, Energy +0.82%, Health +0.83%, Materials +1.2%, Industrials +1.23%, Consumer Staples +1.24%, Financials +1.27%, Utilities +1.75%
OIL:
– WTI crude futures rose about 2% to $70.1 per barrel on Thursday, driven by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Reports indicated that Russia had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine for the first time, following Ukraine’s use of US- and UK-supplied long-range weapons earlier in the week.
OPEC+ meeting scheduled for December 1st, amid speculation that the cartel may delay output increases. However, a rise in US crude inventories capped further price gains. Data from the EIA showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations of a 0.4 million-barrel build. Gasoline stocks also rose by 2.1 million barrels, outpacing forecasts of a 1.6 million-barrel increase.
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold also soared back above its 50DMA
– Up for the 4th straight day after 6 straight down following the election
BONDS:
–
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.59 +0.013
US 6-MO: 4.49 +0.010
US 1-YR: 4.401 +0.037
US 5-YR: 4.307 +0.034
US 10-YR: 4.424 +0.018
US 30-YR: 4.605 +0.013
TWO’s/TENS: 0.07 -0.03
CRYPTO
– Bitcoin finally took out its record high relative to gold
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEb6x53Hsr8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9Kqe27kGpw
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmKEc8Q4Ie4
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0pb9u6ZilA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Khq4DXG3hCw
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WvAqr9OXl8
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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