MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Lake Tahoe
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Retail Sales:
– October sales rose 0.4% month on month, versus 0.3% expected, including a revision higher for September’s reading to 0.8% from 0.4%.
– Import and export prices unexpectedly increased in October
– NY Empire State Manufacturing Index reported a surprising surge in business activity
COMPANIES
– Musk’s SpaceX preparing to launch tender offer in Dec at $135/share, $250B Val.
– NVDA -3.22%, Microsoft -2.77%, Amazon -4.27%
– Pfizer decreased to a near 12-year low of 24.57 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Pfizer lost 16.24%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 18.32%
GENERAL:
– traders are pricing in 62% odds of a rate cut at its December policy meeting, compared with 72% the day before
– January easing stand at 74%, versus the previous 81%
– Fed’s Goolsbee sees another 125 bps of rate cuts by end-2025
– GBPUSD decreased to a 19-week low of 1.26. Over the past 4 weeks, British Pound US Dollar lost 2.78%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 1.81%
– France, final figures revealed the annual inflation rate ticked up to 1.2% in October 2024, rising from the 3.5-year low of 1.1% in September, aligning with earlier projections
– Euro Bourses close lower
– Richmond Fed’s Barkin expects inflation will fall into next year, hints at slowing rate cut pace
– ‘Rates Will Be a Lot Lower’ in 12-18 Months, Fed’s Goolsbee Says
– Equities down, Treasuries steepen, Crude down, Dollar down
Week Ahead:
– Highlights include UK CPI & Retail Sales; RBA Minutes; Japanese CPI
Earnings:
– LOW, MDT, WMT; [WED] TGT, TJX, PANW, NVDA, DE, INTU
MAJORS:
DX:
– The dollar rallied for the seventh straight week top its highest since Nov 2022
EQUITIES:
– Nasdaq’s worst week in the last 10
– Megacap Tech gives back all post election gains
EUR:
– DAX -0.23% at 19,220, FTSE 100 -0.09% at 8,064, CAC 40 -0.58% at 7,270, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.79% at 4,795
US:
– SPX -1.32% at 5,871, NDX -2.40% at 20,394, DJIA -0.70% at 43,445, RUT -1.42% at 2,304
Sectors:
– Technology -2.49%, Health -1.88%, Communication Services -1.85%, Consumer Discretionary -1.36%, Consumer Staples -0.83%, Materials -0.79%, Industrials -0.6%, Energy -0.34%, Real Estate +0.16%, Financials +0.53%, Utilities +1.47%
OIL:
– WTI (Z4) SETTLED USD 1.68 LOWER AT 67.02/BBL; BRENT (F5) SETTLED USD 1.52 LOWER AT 71.04/BBL
The crude complex was choppy on Friday, sold off through the US afternoon to settle around lows amid potential profit-taking into the weekend and broader risk off trade.
WTI and Brent were subdued throughout the EZ morning amid efforts to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon whilst Iran attempts to cool tensions with the US, before edging higher to hit peaks of USD 68.69/bbl and 72.49/bbl, heading into US data.
Oil sold off in wake of hawkish Retail Sales and NY Fed Manufacturing which gave the Buck a fillip higher, and hit contracts. Pared these losses to test the earlier highs, but then sold off throughout the US afternoon and into settlement as participants took profit into the weekend amid risk-off and a reversal of recent Trump trade, highlighted by heavy losses in US indices.
Ceasefire talks continue although Sky News Arabia citing Yedioth Ahronoth said that estimates in Israel indicate that Hezbollah will reject the US proposal for a ceasefire.
The weekly Baker Hughes rig count saw both oil and natgas down 1 to 478 and 101, respectively, with the total declining 1 to 584. For Europe gas, OMV said Gazprom is to suspend Austria gas deliveries on Nov 16th. Oil report courtesy of newsquark.
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold suffered its worst week since Jun 2021, falling back to two-month lows
BONDS:
– The 10Y Yield touched 4.50% at the highs today and reversed – the first time it has reached that level since May 2024
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.591 +0.028
US 6-MO: 4.484 +0.031
US 1-YR: 4.343 +0.025
US 5-YR: 4.31 +0.018
US 10-YR: 4.441 +0.023
US 30-YR: 4.623 +0.04
TWO’s/TENS: 0.14 +0.01
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mEzNF6CWts4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j25VkESewZg
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVxDZDBVIEQ
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rnAE0ixCp94
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWGw06mlvTw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SF4QBzEL09Y
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haZegPp6gck
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
