MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Santiago Stock Exchange Building
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– PPI came in hotter than expected across the board on both a monthly and annual basis
– headline PPI rose 0.2% MoM (in line with the +0.2% expected) but September was revised higher from 0.0% to 0.1%
– annual basis, headline PPI rose 2.4%, higher than the 2.3% expected, with the last month also revised higher from 1.8% to 1.9%
– Core PPI jumped to +3.1% YoY (hotter than the 3.0% exp) with the prior month revised higher to 2.9% from 2.8%. This was the second hottest print going back to March 2023 with just the June outlier surge hotter than October
– Treasury curves are flattening after the data, which suggests traders are wavering over the prospects of a December rate cut. That has yet to be reflected in rates markets — bets have been trimmed but marginally
– According to BBG’s Vince Cignarella, sizeable block trades are going through Treasuries, mostly in the five-year tenor and some ten-year tenors, which looks like positioning for higher yields and flatter curves.
– Initial jobless claims dropped last week to 217k (from 221k) – below the 220K consensus estimate – and the lowest since May
– POWELL:
– The central bank does not need to be “in a hurry” to lower interest rates due to the economy’s strength
– the Fed would be “watching carefully” to make sure certain inflation measures stay within an acceptance range
– “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
– He said the Fed will be paying close attention to core measures of goods and services inflation, excluding housing, which have fallen over the past two years.
“We expect that these rates will continue to fluctuate in their recent ranges,” he said. “We are watching carefully to be sure that they do.”
– The path down to the Fed’s goal of 2%, he added, will be “sometimes bumpy.”
COMPANIES
– Disney (+6.4%) surges on profit, revenue exceed expectations
– Cisco (-2.1%) beat profit expectations, rev outlook fell short of expect
– Tesla slides -5.77% after a new report from Reuters that suggested EV tax credits could be cut under the incoming Trump administration
GENERAL:
– President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be secretary of Health and Human Services
– Trump plans to kill consumer tax credit for EVs
– Inflation readings this week have shown little progress towards the Fed’s 2% target
– Russian Ruble hits 1-yr low
– Toronto S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3% to surpass the 25,090 level on Thursday, extending its record high for a third consecutive session, lifted by gains in financials and commodity producers.
– Euro Bourses close higher:
– FTSE +0.51%
– CAC +1.32%
– DAX +1.37%
– MIB +1.93%
– Irish PM Suggests ‘Illegal Migrants’ Don’t Even Exist and ‘everybody has a right to come here’
– NYC starting $9 congestion tax for vehicles in Manhattan
– Larger EIA crude build than forecasted
– Iranian Foreign Minister said Iran is ready to negotiate
– Australian Employment short of forecasts
– Equities down, Treasuries flatten, Crude up, Dollar up
Ahead:
– Chinese Retail Sales, House Prices, Unemployment Rate; German Wholesale Price; UK GDP, Services, US Retail Sales, Capacity Utilisation
Speakers:
– ECB’s Lane, Cipollone; Fed’s Collins, Williams
Earnings:
– BAE Systems, Alibaba
MAJORS:
DX:
– Higher post Powell
EQUITIES:
– Rivian -15% smoked after potential removal of EV credit
– Vaccine makers smoked after Kennedy nominated HHS
EUR:
– DAX: +1.37% at 19,264, FTSE 100: +0.51% at 8,071, CAC 40: +1.32% at 7,312, Euro Stoxx 50: +1.98% at 4,834
US:
– SPX -0.60% at 5,949, NDX -0.66% at 20,897, DJIA -0.47% at 43,751, RUT -1.37% at 2,337
Sectors:
– Industrials -1.69%, Consumer Discretionary -1.54%, Health -1.54%, Real Estate -0.93%, Materials -0.7%, Communication Services -0.66%, Utilities -0.38%, Financials -0.26%, Consumer Staples -0.22%, Technology +0.05%, Energy +0.14%
OIL:
– WTI (Z4) SETTLED USD 0.27 HIGHER AT USD 68.70/BBL; BRENT (F5) SETTLED USD 0.28 HIGHER AT 72.56/BBL
The crude complex was choppy on Thursday but settled firmer, albeit in thin oil-specific newsflow. On the day, WTI and Brent were initially subdued and saw lows of USD 67.92/bbl and 71.79/bbl, respectively, in the European morning before rebounding to later highs of 69.39 and 73.22 as global sentiment improved, although then paring through the US session, settling well off extremes. However, into settlement contracts did notice a little bid higher to settle well within the intraday ranges. Regarding Middle Eastern updates, they suggested Israel-Hezbollah clashes are expanding to areas outside of the border region, although the Israeli Cabinet Minister later stated that Israel is closer to reaching an arrangement on Lebanon fighting than at any point since the start of the war, which followed earlier reports via WaPo that Israel is preparing a Lebanon ceasefire plan as a “gift” to President-elect Trump. Oil report courtesy of newsquark
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold rebounded above key support at 2543 to close 2571.
BONDS:
–
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.572 -0.016
US 6-MO: 4.572 -0.005
US 1-YR: 4.377 +0.07
US 5-YR: 4.337 +0.036
US 10-YR: 4.449 -0.002
US 30-YR: 4.601 -0.035
TWO’s/TENS: 0.18 +0.09
CRYPTO
– 90k Holds firm.
– Pennsylvania lawmakers introduced legislation that would enable the state’s treasury to hold the world’s largest digital asset on its balance sheet as part of a broader movement to recognize bitcoin as a store of value.
– The new bill, called the Pennsylvania Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, introduced in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives on Thursday, is the first of its kind and would allow the state’s treasury to allocate up to 10% of its roughly $7 billion state funds into bitcoin as a way to help combat inflation and diversify its investments beyond traditional assets like bonds and cash reserves.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/R_2_o7gJqs0
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5dKJ6F_ckSA?sttick=0
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyvSSQpSfMc
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8iEmgjxcvro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R1qi-M_h1Y&lc=UgwqhZ4iSFXIlVjX7IF4AaABAg
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c38Rs6WzIRo
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
