MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
The Los Angeles Stock Exchange
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– NY Fed Survey:
– year-ahead and five-year ahead inflation expectations tick lower to 2.9% (prev. 3.0%) and 2.8% (prev. 2.9%), respectively, while the 3yr lifted to 2.5% from 2.3%
– November: inflation expectations decline at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons.
– labor market expectations improved with households reporting a lower likelihood of higher unemployment and job loss, and a higher likelihood of finding a job if they were laid off. – Perceptions of credit access and expectations for future credit access both improved in October, and households reported a lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months.
– Larger-than-expected rise in UK unemployment rate
– larger-than-expected jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% (prev. 4.0%) and a slowdown in the rate of employment, while wage components came in hotter-than-forecasted. However, this appears to be more a by-product of unfavourable base effects
– BoE’s Pill adopted a cautious stance towards further policy loosening – citing more work to be done on inflation and high levels of wage data.
COMPANIES
– Telsa falls 5% after massive post Trump run up
– Boeing (-2%) slides post fall in deliveries
– Home Depot (HD) released earnings per share at 3.78 USD, compared to market expectations of 3.64
– Shopify (SHOP) released earnings per share at 0.64 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.27
GENERAL:
– EURUSD decreased to a 12-month low of 1.06. Over the past 4 weeks, Euro US Dollar lost 2.88%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.95%
– Euro Bourses close lower: FTSE -0.3%, DAX, CAC & MIB -2%+
– Traders considered the growing likelihood that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will impose punitive tariffs and adopt a tough stance on Europe and China
– Mike Waltz favoured for National Security Advisor
– (Serves as the principal advisor to the president of the United States on all national security issues. The national security advisor participates in meetings of the National Security Council (NSC) and usually chairs meetings of the principals committee of the NSC with the secretary of state and secretary of defense (those meetings not attended by the president). The NSA also sits on the Homeland Security Council).
– Marco Rubio favoured for Secretary of State
– (Advising the President on foreign policy, negotiating treaties, and representing the President at international forums. Advising the President on the appointment, recall, and dismissal of diplomatic representatives)
– Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations
– Mike Huckabee tapped to be US ambassador to Israel
– Chris Walace to Depart CNN
– CNN and MSNBC rumored layoffs:
(But doesn’t fear sell?!?!)
– According to Neilsen data, last Thursday’s total views on Fox News came in at 2.6 million – of which 375,000 were in the coveted 25-54 age demographic, Mediaite reports. In comparison, MSNBC only had 596,000/71,000 of 25-54 viewers and CNN brought in 419,000/91,000 of 25-54. Fox News was up some 60 percent year over year for the day, while MSNBC and CNN were down 23 and 40 percent – respectively
– NJ Judge Delays Trump ‘hush money’ immunity ruling
– A woman in Seattle has been arrested on first-degree murder charges, allegedly killing her own father with an ice ax after becoming “overwhelmed” on the night of the US election
– Don Jnr joins VC firm 1789 Capital
– Fed Policy is ‘moderately restrictive’ says Kashkari
– Barkin mentions risk of inflation getting stuck above target
– Israel says in Lebanon there will be no ceasefire
– Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude flat, Dollar up, Crytpo comes of highs
Ahead:
– Australian Wage Price Index, US CPI!
– Australian employment metrics (Thurs)!
Speakers:
– Fed’s Logan, Williams, Musalem, Kashkari, Schmid; RBA’s Bullock
MAJORS:
DX:
– The US dollar rose over 1% to surpass 106.1 on Tuesday, nearing November 2022 levels, driven by expectations of higher tariffs under Donald Trump’s administration. The market anticipates that these tariffs could raise prices, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. Also, with the Republican Party holding a slim majority in Congress, Trump is expected to push tax cuts and deregulation after taking office in January. He has warned the Eurozone about its lack of American imports and threatened China with 60% tariffs.
Looking ahead, investors are focused on the latest US inflation data, due this week, which will provide further insight into the economic outlook. The euro dropped 0.5% to $1.0596, its lowest in a year. The yen also declined 0.7% to $154.8, the lowest in 3-1/2 months while the Canadian dollar fell for a third consecutive day, approaching a four-year low against the USD
DX two year highs, +5% last 7 weeks
EQUITIES:
– 9 CONSECUTIVE days of Equity INFLOW
– Largest ever run was 10 days seen in 2014
EUR:
– DAX -2.06% at 19,048, FTSE 100 -1.22% at 8,026, CAC 40 -2.69% at 7,227, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.24% at 4,745
US:
– SPX -0.29% at 5,984; NDX -0.17% at 21,071, DJI -0.86% at 43,911, RUT -1.77% at 2,392
Sectors:
– Materials -1.57%, Health -1.34%, Real Estate -1.29%, Utilities -1.13%, Consumer Discretionary -1.10%, Industrials -0.87%, Energy -0.46%, Financials -0.32%, Consumer Staples +0.09%, Technology +0.45%, Communication Services +0.51%
OIL:
– WTI crude oil prices edged higher by 0.1% to $68.1 per barrel on Tuesday, after a 5% decline over two sessions. Investors reacted to OPEC’s fourth consecutive cut to its 2024 global oil demand forecast and China’s economic concerns. China’s October data showed the slowest consumer price growth in four months and deeper producer price deflation, raising deflation risks and disappointing investors due to a lack of significant stimulus. Analysts said China’s 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt plan fell short of growth expectations.
U.S. policy may shift towards increased domestic shale production, as pro-oil North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is considered for Energy Secretary under Trump.
The U.S. dollar remained strong, near four-month highs, as Trump’s anticipated policies could keep interest rates elevated longer. Analysts noted that in a flat market, supply and demand concerns are magnified, which has affected oil sentiment
GOLD/SILVER:
– Two month lows
BONDS:
– 10Yr Highest Yields in 5 months
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.591 UNCH
US 6-MO: 4.477 +0.026
US 1-YR: 4.38 +0.061
US 5-YR: 4.315 +0.122
US 10-YR: 4.429 +0.121
US 30-YR: 4.569 +0.09
TWO’s/TENS: +0.09 +0.03
CRYPTO
– Crypto stocks soar post Trump
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsOfRhkYiJk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXna1a-806Q
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iywaBOMvYLI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5c6moKNRrs&sttick=0
Joke of the Day:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E2CCOCkKzpI
House of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KftjxGlZqA
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
