Market in Review 4/12/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:

– GOLD! Pumps, and DUMPS

– Crypto,  just DUMPS

– Crude….. PUMPS AND DUMPS

– Equities….. dump.

– Flight to USD!

– End. Of. Story.

– China weak credit loans (up, but less than Exp)
– China phasing out foreign chips

– JP Morgan -5% on Earnings. (Earnings season for banks begins…)
– Mixed Big Bank earnings

– US Mich Consumer Sent fell to 77.9 from 79.4 (Exp 79)

– Everyone waiting on Iran ‘attack’ on Israel.

FedSPEAK:
FED’S COLLINS: NOW SEE FED CUTTING LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT

FED’S GOOLSBEE: IF PCE REINFLATES, ‘WE WILL STABILIZE THE PRICES‘

FED’S SCHMID: REASON TO THINK RATES WILL STAY HIGHER FOR LONGER

FED’S BOSTIC: `I AM NOT IN A HURRY’ TO CUT INTEREST RATES

FED’S DALY: NO URGENCY TO CUT INTEREST RATES

PRICES at 3.30PM EST
DOLLAR DX UP: 105.83                  +0.73% (105.13 – 105.90) HIGHS
– AUD DOWN: 64.59                       -1.2% (65.44 – 64.57) LOWS
– EUR UP: 93.95                               +0.82% (93.19 – 94.10) HIGHS
– GBP DOWN: 124.47                     -0.84% (125.56 – 124.48) LOWS
– JPY UNCH: 153.19                         UNCH (153.73 – 152.61) Off Highs

GOLD DOWN: $2357                      -0.5% (2450 – 2350) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND DOWN:                     38174 -558/-1.44%, 5158 -85/-1.63%, 18150 -334/-1.81%
CRYPTO DOWN: BTC/ETH:            BTC -3122/-4.5% 67200, ETH -275/-8% 3235
CRUDE up: $85.48                           +$0.46/0.54%

Upcoming:

US: Retail Sales MoM

CHI: GDP, Indust Prod, GDP, Unemployment

Speakers:

ECB: Lane

BoE: Breeden

FED: Daly

NEXT WEEK:
US and UK retail sales, UK, NZ, Canada and Japan inflation, China activity data and PBoC MLF
PBoC MLF; Reviewing FOMC Minutes, ECB, BoC, RBNZ

Earnings: [MON] GS, SCHW; [TUES] UNH, JNJ, BAC, MS; [WED] ASML, ABT, PLD; [THURS] TSM, ELV, BX, NFLX, ISRG; [FRI] PG, AXP

MAJORS:

DX:
Although geopolitics dominated the slate to end the week on account of a haven bid amid an escalation in Middle East tensions, as multiple sources report of an imminent Iran response.
Prelim UoM April disappointed, with both 1yr and 5yr inflation expectations rising, while there was a slew of Fed speak Collins (2025 voter) is in the range of two rate cuts for 2024, Schmid (2025 voter) urged patience on interest rates until clear inflation ebbing to 2% and said there is a reason to think rates will stay higher for longer. Bostic (2024 voter) reiterated his hawkish tones, noting he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and reaffirmed one rate towards the end of the year.

DOLLAR DX UP: 105.83                  +0.73% (105.13 – 105.90) HIGHS

Buy Dips.

AUD:
“A break likely and a 65 ceiling looking like the near term.”
Mkt report Yest.

65 handle now a FIRM, FIRM ceiling.

AUD DOWN: 64.59                         -1.2% (65.44 – 64.57) LOWS

Sell bounces go with flow look for test of 64 handle.

GBP
Sell rallies above 125.

GBP DOWN: 124.47                        -0.84% (125.56 – 124.48) LOWS

Sell rallies above 125.

EUR
95 in sight.

EUR UP: 93.95                                  +0.82% (93.19 – 94.10) HIGHS

Buy Dips

YEN:
The clear G10 outperformer on Friday, albeit still flat, as it benefitted from haven flows in wake of the aforementioned geopolitical turmoil, although the cross is hovering around earlier highs of 153.38. Nonetheless, amid the significantly weakening in the Yen this week the desk remains attentive to any sign/commentary around intervention, though Nomura does not believe there is a sense of this occurring any time soon.

JPY UNCH: 153.19                           UNCH (153.73 – 152.61) Off Highs

No call

GOLD & SILVER:
Silver redresses the underperformance. Gold had its spec end. 2400 ceiling for immediate.

GOLD DOWN: $2357                      -0.5% (2450 – 2350) LOWS

Sell close to $2400 for sub $2350

OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLED USD 0.64 HIGHER AT 85.66/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLED USD 0.71 HIGHER AT 90.45/BBL

Oil prices hit new YTD peaks on Friday after a slew of reporting on an imminent Iran response but unwound the majority of gains into the close. Prices had traded through the APAC session and European morning with a modest bid amid WSJ reporting about an imminent Iran response. However, the upside really got going in the NY morning with more media reports on the issue, where CBS reported Israel is bracing for a “worst-case scenario” that US officials believe could materialize “within just hours”, followed by similar Bloomberg reports that added that the US is preparing defences and has moved additional military assets to the region. Reports of sirens in Israel only accentuated the crude bid. The rush to hedge geopolitical risk saw WTI (K4) and Brent (M4) futures peak at USD 87.67/bbl and 92.18/bbl later in the NY morning, fresh YTD peaks beyond those last Friday. However, prices began paring strength into the European close, and the downside continued to see the majority of the gains wiped out by settlement. While there are concerns of broader regional war/conflict, there are many traders who believe any response will become a “sell the news” event given how telegraphed the attack is and all the reporting that suggests any Iranian response would be done so to avoid further escalation. It appears those expectations are driving the strong pullback in prices despite the weekend risk. Oil report courtesy of newsquark.

CRUDE up: $85.48                           +$0.46/0.54%

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.373 +0.007
US 6-MO 5.347 -0.019
US 1-YR 5.147 -0.032
US 5-YR 4.555 -0.068
US 10-YR 4.522 -0.054
US 30-YR 4.63 -0.032

2YR/10YR -0.38

CRYPTO
– Higher-than-expected inflation is pushing market interest rates higher, and growth and tech stocks are moving lower as a result. The movements of the crypto market have correlated heavily with those of growth and tech stocks, which in part explains why some of the upward momentum for crypto is fading.

CRYPTO DOWN: BTC/ETH:            BTC -3122/-4.5% 67200, ETH -275/-8% 3235

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.

As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm