MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Bazacle Mill
Around 1250 , Bazacle had 12 land mills . The various owners of these mills decided to join forces and create a joint stock company: The Bazacle Mills Company. Each partner received a notarized document in return for their participation in the company. The company was made up of 96 Uchaux. Each Uchan represented one eighth of a mill . The owners of Uchaux are called Pariers.
In the 13th century , the Moulins du Bazacle company therefore accepted the coexistence of individual property rights on the shares of the mills, and the principle of a collective company ensuring the management of the common interests of the bettors. Each bettor could therefore dispose of and enjoy his uchan as with any other real estate. The shares of the company could be freely transferred by sale, donation or inheritance. The price of the uchan was fixed according to the performance of the mill and its operation, as well as by the economic environment. The shares were therefore freely transferred without control by the other partners.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
SUNNY HOSTIN “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
KAMALA HARRIS “There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.”
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– ADP’s Employment Report +233k jobs in October (more than double the 111k addition expected) and September was revised higher:
– biggest monthly addition since July 2023
– Q3 GDP grew at a 2.8% rate, down from 3.0% in Q2
– Pending home sales surged 7.4% MoM (+1.9% exp) in September – that is the biggest MoM jump since the COVID lockdowns (June 2020):
– Hot German CPI
– Mixed Aussie CPI figures
– OPEC+ could delay planned output hike for December
– Surprise EIA crude draw.
COMPANIES
– Super Micro plunges, -33%!
After Earnst & Young, the auditor, resigns:
– “We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations.”
– AMD follows down 10% in Micro-chip plunge
– MSFT BEATS!
– For the quarter, Microsoft saw earnings per share (EPS) of $3.30 on revenue of $65.6 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $3.10 and revenue of $64.5 billion, based on analyst consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company reported EPS of $2.99 on revenue of $56.5 billion during the same quarter last year.
– For the quarter, Microsoft saw earnings per share (EPS) of $3.30 on revenue of $65.6 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $3.10 and revenue of $64.5 billion, based on analyst consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company reported EPS of $2.99 on revenue of $56.5 billion during the same quarter last year.
– Microsoft also Productivity and Business Processes segment revenue of $28.3 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase. The segment includes sales of Microsoft’s Microsoft 365 services.
The company also reported growth in its More Personal Computing business, with revenue climbing 17% to 13.2 billion.
– Eli Lilly and Co down 8% after earnings miss
– DJTWW plummets -23% in preelection volatility
– Reddit SOARS +42% after earn blowout
– SNAP +15%!
– MetLife (MET) released earnings per share at 1.95 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.19
– Prudential Financial (PRU) released earnings per share at 3.48 USD, compared to market expectations of 3.47
– DoorDash beats Q3 earnings
– Earnings per share of $0.38 topped the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $0.21. Revenue of $2.71 billion just surpassed the expected $2.66 billion. Marketplace gross order value was $20.00 billion versus the $19.74 billion estimate
GENERAL:
– Euro Bourses close lower
– UK Gilt yields SOAR post UK budget release
– UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled £40 billion ($51.8 billion) of tax hikes, the most in decades, and massively ramped up borrowing
– £142 billion of borrowing over the Parliament to tax rises that were the most in at least 30 years
– Hamas reject ceasefire. Shock.
– Equities down, Treasuries flatten, Crude up, Dollar down
Ahead:
– Chinese NBS PMIs, German Retail Sales, EZ CPI, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Sept), Initial Jobless Claims, Employment Costs, Canadian GDP, NZ HLFS Jobs
– BoJ Policy Announcement
Speakers:
– BoJ Governor Ueda; BoE’s Breeden
Earnings:
– MRK, UBER, CMCSA, MA, AMZN, INTC, AAPL
MAJORS:
DX:
– The dollar index fell for its third consecutive day, heading into overnight trade at the very low end of the 104 mark, as Euro strength (explained below) dominated price action.
US data was mixed, with ADP National Employment surging above the consensus, +233k (exp. 114k), Core PCE Prices rising 2.2% (exp. 2.1%), and Q3 Advance US GDP slightly below the consensus.
US data sparked a little reaction in the buck, as participants continued to refrain from using the ADP figure as a gauge for the upcoming NFP report on Friday, (exp. +113k).
October’s ISM figures will also be awaited on Friday, but until then, weekly claims data, particularly Core PCE M/M (Sept, exp. 0.3%) will be watched.
EURO:
– Series of hot data out of Europe, namely, hot German and Spanish CPI, Germany and EZ Flash GDP figures for Q3 growing more than expected (Q/Q & Y/Y).
Eurozone Services Sentiment in October beat expectations, while Industrial and Economic Sentiment fell short.
ECB’s Schnabel, Villeroy, and Nagel, with the former, noting that there is no need to go below neutral and that they should expect more frequent supply-side shocks, resulting in inflation impacts.
Next for the Euro is Flash EZ HICP and Unemployment figures on Thursday
POUND:
– The pound headed into the unveiling of the new UK’s Labour budget as the clear underperformer in the G10 space, wiping out Tuesday’s lows, and bottoming eventually at 1.2938 as the announcement got underway but the cross managed to grind higher as the budget was presented.
The budget is to raise taxes by GBP 40bln (exp. 35-50bln) and the new target for public debt will be based on Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL), a rule now on a 3yr rolling basis (prev. 5yr).
Notable weakness in Gilts after the OBR assessed the budget will increase UK interest and gilt rates by 0.25% and that firms will be passing on 60% of the hefty NI costs via lower wages, and as such, higher prices for the BoE.
The Pound then saw two-way price action at the time but ultimately underperformed in G10 FX while Gilt yields rallied.
Note, Cable is currently beneath its 100 DMA (1.2974) ahead of APAC trade. Pantheon Macroeconomics remarked, “Substantial extra upfront expenditure and looming jump in businesses’ labour costs, will compel the MPC to ease slowly”.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: -1.09% at 19,267, FTSE 100: -0.73% at 8,160, CAC 40: -1.10% at 7,428, Euro Stoxx 50: -1.31% at 4,885
US:
– SPX -0.33% at 5,814, NDX -0.79% at 20,388, DJIA -0.22% at 42,142, RUT -0.23% at 2,233
Sectors:
– Technology -1.34%, Consumer Staples -0.26%, Utilities -0.24%, Health -0.19%, Industrials -0.19%, Consumer Discretionary +0.01%, Energy +0.04%, Materials +0.37%, Real Estate +0.39%, Financials +0.42%, Communication Services +0.99%
GOLD/SILVER:
– $3000?
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.746 -0.003
US 6-MO: 4.486 +0.003
US 1-YR: 4.291 +0.019
US 5-YR: 4.158 +0.054
US 10-YR: 4.3 +0.03
US 30-YR: 4.51 -0.009
TWO’s/TENS: 0.13 -0.03
CRYPTO
Support at 72k, STRONG support at 67K
90k on the books
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8k2AbqTBxao
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcvXr-9XtgA
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmPqVU0Bz2U
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SDUAr3p0MgM
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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