MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
The Bazacle Causeway 1976
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
SUNNY HOSTIN “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
KAMALA HARRIS “There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.”
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– Jolts report showed the number of job openings was the smallest since January 2021 and layoffs rose
– CB consumer confidence rose the most since March 2021
– confidence exploded higher with the headline rising from 99.2 to 108.8 (vs 99.5 exp)
– Fresh China stimulus
– Strong 7yr auction
COMPANIES
– Ford SMOKED 8.5%
– GOOGL reported post bell ABOVE earnings:
– reported earnings per share of $2.12 on revenue of $88.27 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30. That represents a profit and sales increase from the same period last year of 37% and 15%, respectively.
– Analysts were anticipating earnings per share of $1.83 on revenue of $86.44 billion
– Advertising revenue topped $65.85 billion versus analysts’ expectations of $65.5 billion, and up from the year-ago period’s $59.65 billion
– Pfizer (PFE) released earnings per share at 1.06, compared to market expectations of 0.62
– Pfizer decreased to a 7-week low of 28.24 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Pfizer lost 2.15%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 7.43%
– MSCI (MSCI) released earnings per share at 3.86, compared to market expectations of 3.76
– McDonalds (MCD) released earnings per share at 3.23, compared to market expectations of 3.20
– PayPal (PYPL) released earnings per share at 1.20, compared to market expectations of 1.07
– Phillips 66 (PSX) released earnings per share at 2.04, compared to market expectations of 1.68
– Sysco (SYY) released earnings per share at 1.09, compared to market expectations of 1.13
– Visa (V) released earnings per share at 2.71, compared to market expectations of 2.58
– Chubb (CB) released earnings per share at 5.72 USD, compared to market expectations of 4.98 USD
– Wells Fargo increased to a near 51-year high of 65.92 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Wells Fargo gained 16.55%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 66.98%
– HSBC Holdings increased to a 6-year high of 725.90 GBp. Over the past 4 weeks, HSBC Holdings gained 8.43%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 23.55%
GENERAL:
– Odds for a 25bps rate reduction next week currently stand around 95%
– Euro Bourses close lower
– Ballot boxes torched in Portland OR
– Hezbollah names new leader, good luck!
– Netanyahu to meet about ending war in Lebanon
– Israel vows response if Iran attack
– Nearly 50m Americans have casted votes already
– Trump trade continues to climb
– Equities mixed, Treasuries flat, Crude down, Dollar flat
Ahead:
– Australian CPI!!!
– PCE Prices/GDP Advance (Q3)!!!!
– US ADP National Employment
– French GDP, Spanish CPI, German Unemployment Rate, German GDP, German Inflation
– Japanese Retail Sales
– UK Budget
Speakers:
– ECB’s Schnabel; BoC’s Macklem & Rogers
Earnings:
– CAT, LLY, ADP, ABBV, BKNG, AMGN, META, SBUX, MSFT
MAJORS
DX:
– The Dollar was flat on Tuesday and within pretty narrow ranges (104.210-104.63), as it was initially underpinned by firmer US Treasury yields in typical ‘Trump trade’, before seeing some weakness later in the session after a solid US 7yr auction saw Treasuries rally into settlement.
There was limited reaction to the US data releases, whereby JOLTS came in beneath all analyst expectations and Consumer Confidence came in above the top end.
Participants await the upcoming risk events via GDP, PCE, NFP, ISM Mfg, corporate earnings, followed by US election and FOMC next week.
EURO:
– Multiple EZ CPI reports on Wednesday (as well as other EU data)
POUND:
– Clear G10 outperformer and only one seeing gains against the Greenback, with Cable printing a high of 1.3011. Looking to Wednesday, there is the widely-anticipated UK budget which is expected to be net expansionary, however, lead to increased taxation at an individual level. Meanwhile, the UK also confirmed that the minimum wage will increase to GBP 12.21/hr in April from GBP 11.44.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– Euro Stoxx 50 -0.44% at 4,948, DAX -0.25% at 19,483, FTSE 100 -0.80% at 8,220, CAC 40 -0.61% at 7,511
US:
– SPX +0.16% at 5,833, NDX +0.98% at 20,551, DJI -0.36% at 42,233, RUT -0.27% at 2,238
Sectors:
– Communication Services +1.56%, Technology +1.12%, Industrials -0.14%, Consumer Discretionary -0.20%, Health -0.29%, Financials -0.61%, Materials -0.67%, Real Estate -0.94%, Consumer Staples -0.96%, Energy -1.44%, Utilities -2.13%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Despite rate cut odds thinning, gold continues its momentum
OIL:
– Nothing of note worth reporting
BONDS:
–
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.752 +0.008
US 6-MO: 4.483 UNCH
US 1-YR: 4.284 -0.019
US 5-YR: 4.083 -0.031
US 10-YR: 4.256 -0.022
US 30-YR: 4.5 -0.03
TWO’s/TENS: 0.16 +0.02
CRYPTO
– Is this a break above to 100k?
– BTC inflows have been HUGE
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8vy1ul0vw98
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RluwGcuC5j4&t=1143s
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beiPP_MGz6I
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GChZM1BcUxY
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
Previous Hamas Minister of the Interior and of National Security Fathi Hammad
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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