MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
In 1190, with the permission of comte Raymond V of Toulouse, a sort of dam (chaussée) and adjacent mills were built in and on the banks of the River Garonne in Toulouse, France.
Around 1250 96 shares of the Société des moulins du Bazacle, or Bazacle Milling Company, were traded in Toulouse at a value that depended on the profitability of the mills the society owned. The name Bazacle derived from the Latin vadaculum, or “little ford.” The original stock offering was underwritten by a group of local seigneurs who shared the profits according to the number of shares they possessed. The shares of this society came to be traded on the open market in Toulouse, and their value fluctuated according to the profitability of the mills. In the sixteenth century the writer Rabelais stated that the Bazacle mills were the most powerful in the world. The company, which survived until 1946, is sometimes claimed as the earliest example of a joint-stock company.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
SUNNY HOSTIN “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
KAMALA HARRIS “There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.”
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable)
DATA:
COMPANIES:
– Trump Media and Technology Group +28% off after Madison Square Garden rally.
– Ford tumbles -4.66% in after-market as it lowers profit guidance
– Ford’s third-quarter net profit fell nearly 26% as the company took $1 billion in accounting charges to write down assets for a canceled three-row electric SUV.
– made $892 million from July through September, compared with $1.2 billion it made a year earlier.
– Excluding the one-time items, Ford made an adjusted pretax profit of $2.6 billion, or 49 cents per share. That beat analyst estimates of 46 cents, according to FactSet.
– Revenue rose 5.5% to $46.2 billion, also beating Wall Street predictions.
– JPM sues customers over cheque fraud
– Alphabet increased to a 12-week high of 170.51 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Alphabet gained 3.84%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 37.8%.
– Salesforce increased to a 28-week high of 294.84 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Salesforce Inc gained 6.74%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 50.11%
– Tesla increased to a 13-month high of 272.79 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Tesla gained 6.99%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 32.21%
GENERAL:
– ‘Limited’ & ‘Moderate’ Israel response to Iran
– US Treasury financing estimate less than initial Q4 estimate
– Ruling coalition loses its parliamentary majority in Japanese election
– META develops AI search engine to lessen reliance on GOOGL & MSFT
– Both US auctions see tails.
– Senex breaks 5-day losing run
– US natural gas futures dropped over 10% to below $2.3/MMBtu, mirroring other energy markets as supply concerns eased following Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran, which avoided crude and nuclear sites. Additionally, meteorologists forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states through at least November 9, allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage than usual for this time of year. Also, LNG feedgas supply is expected to stay below record levels for the next few weeks due to maintenance at facilities in Louisiana, including Cheniere Energy and Cameron LNG. On the supply front, average natural gas output in 2024 is projected to decline for the first time since 2020.
– CAD hits 2yr low
– Euro bourses close in green
– A new survey of more than 1,000 professors shows that seventy-eight percent will vote for Harris and only eight percent will vote for Trump. Other than a poll of the Democratic National Committee, there are few groups that are more reliably Democratic or liberal.
– 2024 now a coin toss between 1 and 2 25bp cuts and 2025 down to pricing in just 3 cuts
– Top commodity losers are Natural gas (-9.69%), Crude Oil WTI (-5.86%) and Brent Crude Oil (-5.74%). Gains are led by Methanol (1.60%).
– Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar flat
Ahead:
– US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, US Consumer Confidence; JOLTS Job Openings
WEEK:
– US NFP, ISM Mfg, PCE, GDP, EZ and Australian CPI, UK Budget, BoJ and Japan LDP Election
Speakers:
– BoC Governor Macklem & Rogers
Earnings:
– GOOGL, AMD, META, MSFT, AMZN, INTC, and AAPL
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was marginally weaker, albeit mixed against peers, in a relatively quiet day of newsflow ahead of a couple of weeks which sees numerous notable events namely JOLTS (Tues), QRA/ US GDP Advance Q3 (Wed), PCE (Thurs), and NFP (Fri) as well as a deluge of pivotal earnings (GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, META, INTC) and then the US election and Fed the week after.
Regarding the newsflow to start the week, the highlight was undoubtedly the Israel response to Iran over the weekend which was deemed as ‘moderate’ and not very escalatory which provided the sentiment of Monday trade.
On the Treasury Financing estimates, ahead of QRA on Wednesday, US Treasury expects to borrow USD 546bln (prev. 740bln Q/Q) in Q4, assuming end of December cash balance of USD 700bln (prev. USD 850bln Q/Q), whereby the borrowing estimate is USD 19bln lower than the Q4 estimate announced in July 2024. DX report courtesy of newsquark.
EURO:
– EZ GDP metrics on Wednesday expected to underline the bloc’s weak growth prospects, whilst inflation data the following day is expected to see headline HICP remain below 2%
POUND:
– UK Budget on Wednesday
EQUITIES:
– Small Caps were the best performer (squeeze) while Nasdaq was the laggard (barely holding on to unchanged). The S&P lagged The Dow
EUR:
– Euro Stoxx 50 +0.56% at 4,971, DAX +0.34% at 19,530, CAC 40 +0.79% at 7,557, FTSE 100 +0.45% at 8,286
US:
– SPX +0.27% at 5,824, NDX unch. at 20,351, DJIA +0.65% at 42,388, RUT +1.63% at 2,244
Sectors:
– Financials +1.14%, Materials +0.80%, Utilities +0.79%, Communication Services +0.70%, Industrials +0.27%, Real Estate +0.28%, Health +0.13%, Consumer Discretionary +0.12%, Consumer Staples +0.11%, Technology -0.07%, Energy -0.65%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Nothing of note to report, focus on data this week, election and Fed next.
OIL:
– WTI (Z4) SETTLED USD 4.40 LOWER AT 67.38/BBL; BRENT (F5) SETTLED USD 4.63 LOWER AT 71.42/BBL
The crude complex reopened notably in the red as the Israel response to Iran was deemed ‘moderate’. At the open last night WTI and Brent gapped lower before seeing extended selling pressure in the European morning to hit troughs of USD 66.92/bbl and 70.82/bbl, respectively. Thereafter, oil remained under pressure throughout the duration of the session.
The retaliation was deemed as relatively moderate as Israel avoided hitting Iran’s energy and nuclear facilities, instead focusing on military targets. It removed extensive geopolitical risk premia from the energy benchmarks, and broader market sentiment was largely based of geopolitics, ahead of a deluge of risk events throughout the duration of this week, and next. In addition, following the retaliation, according to Al Jazeera, parties concerned (re. Israel) are looking into the possibility of resuming negotiations and meeting technical teams within days, with Israel PM Netanyahu later noting that the Mossad head has returned from Doha meetings on Gaza and mediators will continue talks in coming days with Hamas to see if it is possible to advance the deal. However, a Senior member of the Gaza abductees’ deal negotiating team resigned due to lack of progress on the deal, according to Israel Broadcasting Corporation cited by Sky News Arabia. Report courtesy of newsquark.
BONDS:
– wild day in bond-land with TSYs bid across Europe and then offered during most of the US session
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.773 +0.021
US 6-MO: 4.502 -0.024
US 1-YR: 4.3 -0.005
US 5-YR: 4.14 +0.062
US 10-YR: 4.282 +0.05
US 30-YR: 4.532 +0.033
TWO’s/TENS: 0.15 +0.01
CRYPTO
– 67k forming a base in BTC?
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sa6xKyuyeOE?sttick=0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eU-JJiF5Twg
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAwYodrBr2Q
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV-ccuHLUcs
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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