MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
This template of a price current presents details of various intoxicants traded in Hamburg in the mid-eighteenth century. It contains no prices. The upper part shows a view of the crane, the weighhouse and the stock exchange, all of which were destroyed in the great fire in 1842. Published commodity price currents originated in the sixteenth century and were the first forms of financial journalism. The Hamburg price current goes back at least to the end of the sixteenth century, and was published in Dutch/Flemish until 1736, when the Commerzdeputation took over its publication in German. It appeared weekly to twice a week and served to inform merchants and interested parties in Hamburg and abroad of commodity prices.
This price current exemplifies the diversity within intoxicant categories traded on at the Hamburg exchange: five varieties of coffee (defined according to origin: Levant, Moccha, Martinique, St Domingo, Bourbon), three varieties of tobacco, and several different types and form of sugar.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
– SUNNY HOSTIN: Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?
KAMALA HARRIS: There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– Dovish Beige Book Warns Of Manufacturing Decline In “Most Districts”, Greenlights Further Rate Cuts
– US Existing Home sales fall to lowest level since October 2010
– Soft US 20yr bond auction
COMPANIES:
– Hilton Worldwide (-1.94%) released earnings per share at 1.92, compared to market expectations of 1.85
– Boston Scientific (-0.64%) released earnings per share at 0.63, compared to market expectations of 0.59
– AT&T (+4.6%) released earnings per share at 0.60, compared to market expectations of 0.57
– Coca-Cola (-2.07%) released earnings per share at 0.77, compared to market expectations of 0.75
– General Dynamics (-0.52%) released earnings per share at 3.35, compared to market expectations of 3.50
– CME (+0.43%) released earnings per share at 2.50, compared to market expectations of 2.64
– Boeing (-1.76%) released earnings per share at -10.44, compared to market expectations of -10.33
– Tesla (-1.98%) released earnings per share at 0.72, compared to market expectations of 0.60
– T-Mobile Us (0.89%) released earnings per share at 2.61, compared to market expectations of 2.43
– IBM (0.22%) released earnings per share at 2.30, compared to market expectations of 2.22
– AAPL iPhone 16 orders reportedly cut by 10mln units for Q4 24-Q2 25 and delays debut of Mac Studio
– MCD hit by E.coli outbreak
GENERAL:
– Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. The central bank implemented a widely anticipated fourth rate cut, marking its first significant 50bps reduction in the current cycle after three smaller 25bp cuts
– Euro Bourses close lower
– Zelensky makes overture to Putin “”We saw during the first (peace) summit that there could be a decision on energy security,” he explained to reporters. “In other words—we do not attack their energy infrastructures; they don’t attack ours. Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so.”
– Pentagon confirms North Korean troops in Russia
– Tulsi Gabbard joins GOP (former DNC presidential candidate
– Israel Iran operation leak possibly originated in New Zealand
– Russia to reportedly help Iran counter Israeli strike
– Traders sell everything as Dollar hits 3-month High
– Massive Lithium deposits found in Arkansas
– Lower/Hawkish rate cut expectations
– Trump trade also sold
– Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Crypto Down, Dollar up
Coming Up:
– EZ, US Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, New Home Sales.
Speakers:
– ECB’s Lane, McCaul; Fed’s Hammack; BoE’s Bailey, Mann.
Earnings:
– Renault, Orange, Danone, UniCredit, Equinor, London Stock Exchange Group, Unilever, Abrdn, Bunzl, Barclays, Honeywell International, United Parcel Service, Southwest Airlines, Northrop Grumman, American Airlines Group, Union Pacific, Capital One Financial.
MAJORS:
DX:
– Dollar highest since July
The dollar index rose for the third consecutive day to new heights of 104.57, benefiting from higher UST yields.
No tier 1 data releases were seen, while Fed’s Daly (Voter) noted the labour market has returned to a more sustainable balance, and risks to goals are now more balanced which is a significant improvement from two years ago.
Thursday is of focus for the weekly initial claims data, while US New Home Sales (Sep) and Flash S&P Global PMIs for October are also due.
EURO:
– Flash Consumer Confidence for October edged higher to -12.5 (prev. -12.9), as expected, hitting the highest level since 2022, but considering Confidence remains well subdued, the Euro is gonna need a lot more to add support.
Multiple ECB speakers remarked on Wednesday, namely, dove Centeno said downside risks to growth are accumulating and a 50bps cut is on the table.
Hawk Knot noted he’s pretty confident inflation will hit 2% in 2025, and the consumer recovery will take a bit longer.
There was also a fresh set of ECB sources from Reuters, noting that policymakers are debating whether rates will have to go below neutral level in the current easing cycle.
ING’s call remains for EUR/USD at 1.07 pre-US election, while Rabobank Research points out that the recent IMF forecast of no growth for Germany this year, could lead to an inflationary theme that would arise from the ongoing impact of the energy transition and an ageing demographic which has shrunk the pool of available labour, which they expect that many German exporters would welcome further softening in monetary conditions and a lower value for EUR/USD.
Focus now turns to Thursday for Flash HCOB PMI data (Oct) from EZ, France, and Germany.
YEN
– BoJ’s Governor Ueda made a late appearance on the day, noting the BoJ is still maintaining a “fairly easy” monetary stance, adding, that it’s very hard to pin down the appropriate size of rate hikes from here on; USD/JPY was muted to the remarks.
EQUITIES:
– NASDAQ lead the way lower
– All MAG7 lower
EUR:
– DAX: -0.20% at 19,383, FTSE 100: -0.58% at 8,259, CAC 40: -0.50% at 7,497, Euro Stoxx 50: -0.36% at 4,921
US:
– SPX -0.92% at 5,797, NDX -1.55% at 20,067, DJIA -0.96% at 42,515, RUT -0.79% at 2,214
Sectors:
– Consumer Discretionary -1.82%, Technology -1.68%, Communication Services -1.37%, Energy -0.48%, Health -0.46%, Materials -0.35%, Industrials -0.30%, Consumer Staples -0.12%, Financials -0.12%, Utilities +1.01%, Real Estate +1.02%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold declined over 1% to below $2,715 per ounce on Wednesday, after reaching a record high of $2,750 earlier in the session. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields outweighed the safe-haven demand sparked by the upcoming U.S. election and ongoing Middle East conflict. The dollar index climbed 0.3%, making gold more expensive for non-dollar investors, while U.S. bond yields hit a three-month high. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.25%, its highest since July, and has risen by 44 basis points in October alone. Ongoing concerns over the U.S. debt burden and election uncertainties continue to fuel market volatility. Despite this pullback, gold remains up over 31% this year, driven by last month’s Federal Reserve rate cut and persistent safe-haven demand.
Silver dropped over 3% to $33.60 per ounce on Wednesday, pulling back from a 12-year high.
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures fell below $71 per barrel on Wednesday, ending a two-day rise, after recent EIA data showed US stockpiles remain solid. The EIA reported a 5.5 million barrel rise in crude inventories, far exceeding forecasts, while gasoline stocks also grew by 900,000 barrels, against expectations for a decline.
However, the effect of inventories on prices was somewhat mitigated by ongoing concerns about potential oil supply risks stemming from conflict in the Middle East. Anticipation in the market grows as Israel continues its attacks on Gaza and Lebanon while awaiting its response to Iran’s missile strike.
BONDS:
– Treasury yields rose across the curve again today (with the long-end outperforming – 2Y +5bps, 30Y +2bps):
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.746 -0.013
US 6-MO: 4.496 +0.016
US 1-YR: 4.286 +0.03
US 5-YR: 4.058 +0.053
US 10-YR: 4.248 +0.042
US 30-YR: 4.52 +0.026
TWO’s/TENS: 0.16 -0.01
CRYPTO
– Sell everything:
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyQhwj7j2H0
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EmSZs4-oApM
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUVDmVM9RtA
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naXLrWt9fkQ
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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