MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)

PLEASE SEE DISCORD FOR CHARTS AND PICS

You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.

“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”

SUNNY HOSTIN: Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?

KAMALA HARRIS: There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.

Day in Review:

Today:
(Kamalanomics:  Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):

DATA:
– US Leading Economic Indicators tumbled to their lowest since 2016:

– Fed’s Logan reiterates gradual rate cuts

– Kashkari sees modest cuts over the next quarters; PBoC cut 1- and 5yr rates by 25bps

COMPANIES:

– Boeing’s shares surged 5% on news of a potential agreement to end a strike

GENERAL:
– Euro Bourses close lower

– Interest Payments top Defense spending for first time in History

– Harris campaign raises $1B. 1st candidate to ever do so (corrupt-whatson?)

– Mortgage rates rise for 3rd straight week

– market now pricing in just a 50% chance of a second rate-cut this year

There are ten full trading sessions left between now and election day

– Drone strike on the empty house of Israeli PM Netanyahu

– Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up

Coming Up:
– PBoC LPR, BoC, EZ & UK PMI

Speakers:

– RBNZ’s Silk; ECB’s Lagarde, Lane; BoE’s Greene, Bailey, Breeden; Fed’s Harker

Earnings:
– L’Oreal, IHG, Boliden, Logitech; Danaher, General Electric, Raytheon Technologies, 3M, General Motors, Philip Morris International, Sherwin-Williams, Fiserv, Verizon Communications, Lockheed Martin, Freeport-McMoRan, Texas Instruments

– [TUES] DHR, RTX, GE, PM, VZ, FI, LMT, TXN; [WED] TMO, BSX, T, KO, NEE, TMUS, IBM, TSLA, NOW; [THURS] UPS, HON, SPGI, UNP; [FRI] HCA

MAJORS:

DX:
– The dollar index’s October rally resumed on Monday, as growing tensions in the Middle East (drone strike on the empty Israeli PM home) and the persistent Trump trade (no signs over the weekend of Trump paring recent momentum) supported the buck’s move higher, further highlighted in higher yields across the curve and a firmer crude complex.

Scheduled events in the US, however, were few and far between, with those occurring, resulting in little reaction.
Fed’s Logan (2026 Voter) said she expects gradual rate cuts if the economy meets forecasts, while Kashkari (2026 Voter) said the Fed cut by 50bps in September was due to the labour market weakening but the resilience of the labour market does leave him wondering if the neutral rate is higher.

Next up for USD watchers on Tuesday, is the Fed’s Harker and the Richmond Fed Index for October.

EURO:
– Cooler-than-expected PPI data, -0.5% (exp. -0.2%) failing to spark a reaction in the pair.
ECB remarks were seen from Kazimir, who said an October cut leaves the December meeting wide open and remains flexible and ready to act appropriately.
Kazaks said inflation is continuing to decline whilst the economy is weak, and Simkus noted if disinflation becomes entrenched, rates could go below the natural level.

YEN
– Yen will be of focus amid the Japanese general election on Sunday, where further hints of a post-budget fiscal spending plan should lend support to the JPY.

Rabobank remarked, following summer’s volatility “we would expect Ueda to choose his words very carefully to avoid sharp moves in the JPY”. The bank continues to see USD/JPY lower on a 3- to 6-month view as the Japanese economy recovers, assuming the BoJ will continue to hike later this year.

EQUITIES:

EUR:
– DAX: -1.02% at 19,456, FTSE 100: -0.48% at 8,318, CAC 40: -1.01% at 7,536, Euro Stoxx 50: -0.91% at 4,941

US:
– SPX -0.18% at 5,854, NDX +0.18% at 20,361, DJIA -0.80% at 42,932, RUT -1.60% at 2,240

Sectors:
– Real Estate -2.08%, Health -1.19%, Financials -0.88%, Consumer Staples -0.81%, Materials -0.80%, Consumer Discretionary -0.64%, Utilities -0.36%, Industrials -0.35%, Energy -0.21%, Communication Services -0.07%, Technology +0.93%

GOLD/SILVER:

The two precious metals have outperformed the broader markets, with bullion rising 26% year to date and silver gaining 35% during the same period, compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 19% since the start of 2024.

Gold purchases by central banks, which hit a record in the first quarter of 2024, have been one of the biggest drivers of the precious metal’s rise this year. BofA analysts estimate gold has surpassed the euro to become the world’s largest reserve asset, second only to the US dollar.

JPMorgan analysts cited sentiment at the recent London Bullion Market Association/London Platinum and Palladium Market conference, with attendees forecasting an average year-ahead price of $45 per ounce for the grey metal.

“This bullish view is driven by a sense that silver is undervalued vs gold, less crowded, and supported by multifaceted, versatile demand applications,” wrote JPMorgan analysts on Friday.

Silver is used across different industries, from electronics to fuel cells in automobile components and solar panels.

OIL:
– WTI (Z4) SETTLED USD 1.35 AT 70.04/BBL; BRENT (Z4) SETTLED USD 1.23 HIGHER AT 74.29/BBL

The crude complex was firmer, attempting to retrace some of last week’s notable losses, in what was a day of thin headline newsflow as participants still await Israel’s response to Iran.
According to Sky News Arabia, Iranian military source said any Israeli attack on nuclear sites will be met with a response taking into account nuclear policies.
US Defence Secretary Austin stated that the THAAD system is now “in place” within Israel.

On the supply front, Iraq’s Kerbala refinery (140k BPD) to resume operations on Tuesday following the conclusion of maintenance.

The week ahead is fairly quiet on scheduled macro events, before a deluge of significant risk events such as US CPI, PCE, Election, the Fed, and US corporate earnings, amongst others, with the main energy names reporting this week being Baker Hughes (BKR), Nextera Energy (NEE), and Valero Energy (VLO). For the record, WTI and Brent saw highs of US 70.39/bbl and 74.57/bbl, respectively, against lows of USD 68.46/bbl and USD 72.80/bbl. Report courtesy of newquark.

BONDS:
Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year hitting 4.18%
“The 10‑year Treasury yield will test the 5% threshold in the next six months, steepening the yield curve,” according to Arif Husain, chief investment officer of fixed-income, who helps oversee about $180 billion of assets at the firm. The fastest path to 5% “would be in the scenario that features shallow Fed rate cuts,” he wrote in a note.

                              YIELD     CHANGE
US 1-MO:            4.816
US 6-MO:            4.499
US 1-YR:               4.262
US 5-YR:               3.985
US 10-YR:            4.196
US 30-YR:            4.5
TWO’s/TENS:      0.16 +0.04

– 10yr Yields testing its 200DMA

CRYPTO

BTC retracement from 69 to 67.

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aHF3fawefKU

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gCUbBpH71cU

Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98AOVlhLxgI

Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CwIDmyKtQfA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHCNxsFuO8Y

(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm

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