MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)

Berchtesgaden 1890

You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.

Day in Review:

Today:
(Kamalanomics:  Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):

DATA:
– Payroll company ADP reporting 143,000 new jobs in September, up from 103,000 in August and above the 128,000 forecast

– Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin:
– Barkin said he supported the half-percentage-point rate cut the Fed approved last month and agreed the benchmark rate could fall perhaps by another half a percentage point by the end of this year
– concerned inflation could prove sticky next year and prevent the Fed from cutting rates as far as investors and some of his colleagues expect
– “I’m not talking about some big resurgence … But I do think getting stuck is a very real risk”

– Odds for a 50bps reduction in the fed funds rate in November fell to 34%, well below levels above 50% last week

–  EZ Unemployment Rate UNchanged as expected
– ECB’s de Guindos and Vasle leave options open for October

COMPANIES:
– Tesla sinks on Q3 deliveries falling short

– Nike pukes on earnings and withdrawing guidance

– OpenAI closes 1st round of funding, raises $6.6B, valuation tops $150B

– Costco Wholesale decreased to a 7-week low of 868.60 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Costco Wholesale lost 0.78%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 52.53%

– BlackRock increased to a 34-month high of 953.62 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, BlackRock gained 7.45%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 52.13%.

GENERAL:
– Vance dominates Walz in VP debate

– Doug Emhoff, husband of Kamala Harris slapped previous girlfriend so hard she ‘spun-around’ report emerges

– US Port Strike
– More than 50 container ships were already anchored or loitering off dozens of East Coast and Gulf ports as of early Wednesday, compared to just three on Sunday before the strike
– preventing imports of beef that restaurants and retailers increasingly rely on to make hamburgers due to limited domestic supplies
– everything from shipments of automobiles to containers filled with Guatemalan bananas, Italian wine, beef, imports of seafood and U.S. exports of chicken

– The Brazilian real strengthened to 5.42 per USD, reaching a six-week high amid easing domestic fiscal concerns and favorable economic data. Moody’s recently upgraded Brazil’s credit rating to Ba1, edging the country closer to investment-grade status

– Euro Bourses close flat

– USDJPY increased to a 4-week high of 146.50. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Japanese Yen gained 0.77%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.7%.

Remember China is closed for Golden Week

– Equities flat, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up

Coming Up:
–  Australian, Japanese, EZ, US Services/Composite PMIs (Final), Swiss CPI, EZ Producer Prices, US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, Durable Goods (R), Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI.

– BoE Decision Maker Panel (Sept)

Speakers:

– Fed’s Bostic; Schmid

MAJORS:

DX:
 
– Back to Post Powell FOMC spike

Next for the dollar watchers on Thursday are ISM Services PMI, Challenger Layoffs, Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Services PMI, Fed’s Schmid, Bostic, and Kashkari, ahead of the key NFP report on Friday

EUR:
EUR/USD trended downwards throughout the US session, breaching its 50DMA (1.1040), and troughing at 1.1034 on account of the Dollar strength.

ECB’s de Guindos noted the fight against inflation is “not totally over”, and the ECB need to watch services inflation, adding all options are open for the October rate decision. Similar to that latter de Guindos remark, ECB’s Vasle said they cannot exclude or commit to a rate cut in October.

Thurs:  there’s a myriad of PMI data out of Europe, in addition to, EZ PPI.

JPY:
Yen has now given back its election panic

– Japan PM Ishiba puts down expectations of a nearby rate hike  “we are not in the environment for an additional rate hike”

BoJ’s Ueda remarks align “markets remain unstable (previously said they will not hike rates when unstable) and Japan’s economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs.”

EQUITIES:

– S&P 500 is back within the post-Powell spike range:

EUR:
– DAX: -0.33% at 19,149, FTSE 100: +0.17% at 8,291, CAC 40: +0.05% at 7,578, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.14% at 4,961

US:
– SPX +0.01% at 5,710, NDX +0.15% at 19,803, DJIA +0.09% at 41,197, RUT -0.09% at 2,195

Sectors (W to S):  Consumer Discretionary -0.78%, Consumer Staples -0.78%, Communication Services -0.44%, Real Estate -0.37%, Materials -0.33%, Health -0.21%, Industrials -0.19%, Utilities +0.05%, Financials +0.10%, Technology +0.59%, Energy +1.12%.

GOLD/SILVER:
“Gold is up almost 30% so far this year. Another all-time record high today, getting close to 2700 in the spot market. This is the best year that gold has had since 1979…

A key difference between now and 1979? That was the end of the gold bull market. And in 1980, Paul Volcker raised interest rates up to 20%.

That’s what killed the bull and brought inflation down. But the current Fed is cutting rates. It’s going to cut rates more in 2025. So, gold is just getting started.

OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures rose above $71.5 per barrel on Wednesday, extending an over 2% gain from the previous session, driven by fears of a broader war in the Middle East following Iran’s missile launch targeting Israel. The direct involvement of Iran, a key OPEC member, increases the likelihood of disruptions to the oil supply. Israel reported that Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at the country on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s military actions against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. In response, the Israeli military stated on Wednesday that its air force would intensify strikes across the Middle East and vowed retaliation against Iran.

Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 3.889 million barrels last week, defying market expectations of a 1.3 million-barrel draw.

BONDS:
US 1-MO: 4.
US 6-MO: 4.
US 1-YR: 3.
US 5-YR: 3.
US 10-YR: 3.
US 30-YR: 4.

2’s/10’s:  0.

CRYPTO
 – Bitcoin’s price movement tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. The data reveals a striking correlation coefficient of 0.88 (out of 1) between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 over the past five years, confirming their strong relationship and closely aligned movements. As the Twitter user “The Great Martis” frequently points out, “Bitcoin is merely a Nasdaq ETF,”
– The problem is that U.S. tech stocks are currently in the midst of a massive bubble, fueled by unprecedented stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Like all bubbles, this one is bound to burst, and when it does, Bitcoin is likely to be pulled down with it due to their close correlation. There are numerous metrics indicating that the Nasdaq is in the midst of a massive bubble, one of the most telling being its highly inflated price-to-sales ratio

Another clear sign of the bubble in U.S. technology stocks is their inflated weighting in the S&P 500, which now surpasses even the peak levels seen during the 1999 dot-com bubble—an episode that ended in a market collapse:

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6Dr1Lo4VtYQ

Song of the day:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK_CuMJJLwg

Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjxLzTpOrG0

(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm

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