MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Hamburg Borse 1606
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– Medium-term inflation expectations picked up in preliminary UMich sentiment data for October, with the 5-10Y now at 2.9%
– Declined from 70.1 to 68.9 (well below the 71.0 expected). Both the current conditions and expectations index also fell on the month
While inflation expectations have softened in recent months, concerns about high prices remains extremely elevated
– Headline PPI was unchanged MoM (cooler than the +0.1% expected) but it was up 1.8% YoY (hotter than the +1.6% exp)… but down from the upwardly revised 1.9%
– Core PPI jumped to +2.8% YoY (hotter than the 2.6% exp) as PPI ex-food-and-energy rose 0.2% MoM as expected
That’s a long way from The Fed’s mandated 2%… and it’s going the wrong way….
– Fed’s Logan leans dovish
COMPANIES:
– JPMorgan (+4.6%) earnings per share at $4.37 vs expectations of $3.99.
– Wells Fargo (+6.22%) earnings per share at $1.42 vs expectations of $1.28.
– Bank Of New York Mellon (-1.44%) earnings per share at $1.52 vs expectations of $1.38.
– BlackRock (+2.41%) earnings per share at $11.46 expectations of $10.24.
– Assets under management rose to $11.5 TRILLION dollars. Yup, with a T
– Tesla smoked (-8.37%) after cyber-cab release fails to impress. Tesla decreased to a 4-week low of 218.81 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Tesla gained 4.76%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.13%.
– Goldman Sachs (+2.47%) increased to an all-time high of 517.31 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Goldman Sachs gained 9.13%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 66.88%.
– Uber (+11.27%) increased to an all-time high of 82.25 USD over Telsa robo laklustre release. Over the past 4 weeks, Uber gained 20.76%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 78.8%.
– Lyft also gains off Tesla, up 8.5%
– Boeing (+2.43%) hovers near 52-week low amid on-going strike
– Breaking: Boeing to cut 17,000 jobs!
GENERAL:
– Chinese stocks witnessed the greatest volatility since their meltdown in 2015, capping almost $500 billion of combined losses in mainland and Hong Kong markets, as investors demanded even more stimulus than authorities in Beijing have already pledged.
The CSI 300 Index’s weekly trading range – the gap between high and low prices – surged above 600 index points this week for the first time since July 2015
– Back then, Chinese markets witnessed an exodus of foreigners driven by mounting economic concerns and a government crackdown on traders which only exacerbated the panic.
This time, the turbulence is driven by sluggish consumer demand that threatens even the scaled-down growth ambitions of the country. The index’s 10-day and 20-day realized volatility also rose to a nine-year high.
– Today Equities saw the 45th all-time-high of the year, but none of the prior 44 have occurred alongside this elevated a level of volatility; this will be the first week of the year where the VIX has closed above 20 every day, and so ongoing elevated risk is expected as we progress through October.
Focus moves to 2025 as 2024 less than 2 rate cuts priced in now
– Euro Borses close week in the green
– ECB sources seem to suggest insiders believe an October cut is more likely than not
– The Canadian dollar depreciated to 1.37 per USD, the weakest level since mid-August
Investors lowered bets for a 50bps reduction in the key policy rate by the Bank of Canada this month, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report.
The Canadian economy created 46.7K jobs in September, way above forecasts of 27K and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.5% compared to forecasts of 6.7%.
The Bank of Canada is expected to reduce interest rates by 25bps on October 23rd, in line with the last three meetings.
– Israel steps up Lebanon attacks as it weighs Iran strike
– Top commodity losers are Natural gas (-1.38%), Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (-1%), Natural Gas UK GBP (-0.84%), Crude Oil WTI (-0.57%) and Brent Crude Oil (-0.46%).
– Gains are led by Gasoline (0.51%).
– Top commodity gainers are Copper (1.34%), Silver (1.23%), Platinum (1.17%) and Gold (0.93%).
– Top commodity gainers are Cheese (7.49%), Orange Juice (4.44%) and Cocoa (3.23%).
– Biggest losers are Oats (-1.12%), Coffee (-0.94%) and Soybeans (-0.91%).
– Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar flat
Coming Up:
– Chinese Trade Balance.
– Holiday: Canada Thanksgiving Day; US Columbus Day (US Bond Market Closed, Stocks Open).
Speakers:
– BoE’s Dhingra; Fed’s Waller; RBNZ’s Hawkesby
Earnings:
– GS, ASML, MS, TSM, NFLX, and AXP
MAJORS:
DX:
– Back to mid-August highs
GPB & EUR:
– Pound was little moved on the back of the softer-than-expected GDP 3M/3M and Y/Y figures, while for the Euro Friday’s Final German CPI print for August were unrevised, but the internal commentary held a slight hawkish skew.
EQUITIES:
Stocks UP for the fifth straight week, with Small Caps exploding higher today (back into the green for the week)
EUR:
– DAX: +0.75% at 19,356, FTSE 100: +0.19% at 8,254, CAC 40: +0.48% at 7,578, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.68% at 5,004
US:
– SPX +0.61% at 5,815, NDX +0.15% at 20,272, DJIA +0.97% at 42,864, RUT +2.10% at 2,234
Sectors (W to S): Consumer Discretionary -0.41%, Technology -0.03%, Energy +0.48%, Consumer Staples +0.52%, Communication Services +0.69%, Materials +0.70%, Health +0.73%, Utilities +0.89%, Real Estate +1.06%, Industrials +1.79%, Financials +1.95%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,708.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,572.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,679.20 and then at $2,690.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,645.20 and then at this week’s low of $2,618.80
– December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $29.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at $32.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $31.26 and then at $31.00.
– Jim Wyckoff, Kitco.
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures dipped by 0.3% to settle at $75.5 on Friday as investors considered the potential supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict and the effects of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida.
The US benchmark marked its second consecutive weekly gain, and has surged over 10% since Iran’s missile attack on Israel. The situation has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, fueling the price surge.
Hurricane Milton also contributed to short-term fuel supply in Florida, although long-term consumption could be dampened by the storm’s aftermath.
On the demand side, the outlook improved after top crude importer China unveiled a draft law to promote private sector growth, aiming to boost investor confidence amid an economic slowdown.
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.829 +0.028
US 6-MO: 4.457 -0.007
US 1-YR: 4.197 -0.029
US 5-YR: 3.898 -0.021
US 10-YR: 4.094 UNCH
US 30-YR: 4.405 +0.02
TWO’s/TENS:
2’s/10’s: 0.14 +0.05
CRYPTO
– MicroStrategy (+14.65%), led by founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor states MS is positioning itself to become a leading player in the Bitcoin banking sector.
In a recent interview with analysts at Bernstein, Saylor outlined the company’s endgame, which involves borrowing capital at low rates, offering slightly higher returns to lenders, and investing the proceeds into Bitcoin.
Since 2020, MicroStrategy has aggressively acquired Bitcoin, leveraging debt and equity to bolster its holdings. The firm currently owns 252,220 BTC, valued at over $15 billion, with a total investment cost of approximately $9.9 billion.
This positions MicroStrategy as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, representing about 1.2% of the total Bitcoin supply.
The firm’s strategy diverges from traditional banking models, as Saylor argues that investing in Bitcoin presents less counterparty risk compared to lending to individuals or corporations.
He stated that MicroStrategy plans to continue borrowing from the fixed income market while investing in Bitcoin, aiming for an average annual return of 29%. – YAHOO
– Microstrategy, is one of the easiest companies in the world to value. The reason is that it has 97% of its assets invested in bitcoin. BTC was up 5% today, MS +15%. Huh?
Shares are trading at 2.5 times the value of its bitcoin holdings. That’s a big disconnect between the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings and the company itself. This break matches the highs from Feb 2021 — a time when markets were euphoric.
According to CoinDesk, it’s bitcoin holdings are worth $15.1 billion and its market cap was $37.14 billion yesterday before including today’s massive rally.
Is there a pair trade here in the near future??
– Arkham Intelligence Inc., a blockchain data company backed by investors including OpenAI founder Sam Altman, is planning to launch a crypto derivatives exchange next month, according to a person familiar with the initiative.
The Arkham token, a cryptocurrency known as ARKM with a market capitalization of about $344 million, was up 19% to $1.52 following the news.
Founded in 2020, Arkham currently runs a platform that analyzes blockchain data to provide information on the entities and individuals behind crypto market activity.
BTC +6% ETH +4.5%
After testing 1-month lows
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aN9DH_GxqEo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-x-cRReI1A
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5-eq7bpbwEY
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmPcHfOCUE0
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqjYchwkSpc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPCEjURvaX0
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
Previous Hamas Minister of the Interior and of National Security Fathi Hammad
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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