MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Copenhagen old bourse
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– US manufacturing sector moved deeper into contraction territory at the end of the third quarter of the year (dropping from 48.0 to 47.0 – the third straight monthly contraction in the soft data survey.
– ISM’s version of the Manufacturing PMI survey also showed contraction (47.2 – worse than expected) for the sixth straight month
– Surge in JOLTS
– August unexpectedly rose to 8.04 million, up from 7.71 million in July, signaling that while the labor market is cooling, it’s not doing so rapidly
– Alanta Fed GDPnow (Q3) revised down
– US Construction Spending unexpectedly declines
– EZ Flash CPI in line with expectations, European PMIs mainly above consensus
– SNB Chair cannot rule out negative rates at the moment
– Stronger-than-expected Aussie Retail Sales
COMPANIES:
– Nike released earnings per share at 0.70 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.52 USD.
– Boeing mulls $10B stock sale
– GM EV sales hit record
– CVS is weighing a breakup
– Barclays hints at weak iPhone 16 demand
GENERAL:
– Iran sends hundreds (180) of ballistic missiles to Israel.
– Israel ground invasion proceeds to clear Hezbollah
– US helps Israel shoot down missiles
– Euro Bourses lower
– Japanese stocks collapsed 4.8% yesterday as China’s soared 8.1%
– US port strike BEGINS (WATCH THIS SPACE)
– Helene fallout continues
– Vance – Walz debate TONIGHT (US time)
– Chinese Mainland China (Golden Week)
– Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar up
– Top commodity losers are Cocoa (-8.11%), Butter (-5.47%) and Coffee (-3%). Gains are led by Orange Juice (2.69%), Wheat (2.22%) and Sugar (2%)
Coming Up:
– Australian Manufacturing Index, EZ Unemployment Rate, ADP National Employment
Speakers:
– ECB’s de Guindos, Lane, Elderson, Schnabel
– Fed’s Hammack, Musalem, Bowman, Barkin
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar started the day extending on the hawkish-leaning Powell gains seen on Monday, in which the Fed Chair hinted at the potential step down from a 50bps cut to a 25bps reduction next month.
Upside was furthered after geopolitics reached new highs as Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles.
This spurred a broad risk-off reaction, as the buck took advantage of the downside in activity currencies.
On data, Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3) was revised down to 2.5% (prev. 3.1%), ISM Mfg PMI unexpectedly remained flat at 47.2, Prices paid was below both the expected and consensus range, and conversely, JOLTS came above analysts forecasts, as well as the range.
Nevertheless, geopolitics offset any implications from the US data, until reports indicated the Home Front Command lifted restrictions on Israelis at the end of Iranian missile attacks, and as such, the greenback retreated from its session highs of 101.39.
Looking ahead, attention will be closely fixed on the Israeli response to said attacks, and on the US footing, ADP National Employment before Friday’s NFP, and Fed’s Musalem, Hammack, and Barkin.
EURO:
– European PMIs almost exclusively printing above expectations, while EZ Flash CPI data was as expected. Nevertheless, the Euro suffered on heightened Middle-East tensions, as the pair fell to a low of 1.1046.
Wednesday is ECB’s Lane, Elderson, Schnabel, and EZ Unemployment Rate.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: -0.65% at 19,200, FTSE 100: +0.48% at 8,277, CAC 40: -0.81% at 7,574, Euro Stoxx 50: -0.95% at 4,953
US:
– SPX -0.93% at 5,709, NDX -1.43% at 19,773, DJIA -0.41% at 42,157, RUT -1.48% at 2,197
Sectors (W to S): Technology -2.66%, Real Estate -0.66%, Financials -0.55%, Consumer Discretionary -0.51%, Health -0.51%, Materials -0.32%, Consumer Staples -0.27%, Industrials -0.01%, Communication Services +0.40%, Utilities +0.81%, Energy +2.23%.
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold jumped over 1% to above $2,660 per ounce on Tuesday, nearing the all-time high of $2,685, driven by safe-haven demand as escalating fears of a broader Middle East conflict emerged following Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel. Iran’s missile attack was in retaliation for Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. The US has pledged support to defend Israel in the wake of the attack.
Meanwhile, gold’s gains were tempered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks, signaling that the substantial interest rate cut should not be seen as a precursor to equally aggressive future actions. Powell suggested that any further rate cuts would likely be smaller, around a quarter percentage point.
The likelihood of another 50-basis-point rate cut in November has dropped to 37%, down from over 50% the previous week.
Investors are now awaiting key economic data, including the jobs report, and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, to gauge the Fed’s next moves.
OIL:
– You’d almost think Iran launching missiles was because it might help the price of oil….
BONDS:
US 1-MO: 4.854 +0.035
US 6-MO: 4.372 -0.008
US 1-YR: 3.996 -0.028
US 5-YR: 3.509 -0.068
US 10-YR: 3.732 -0.07
US 30-YR: 4.071 -0.062
2’s/10’s: 0.13 -0.02
CRYPTO
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/luisakroll/2021/11/28/north-salem-billionaires-dirt-road-wes-edens-jamie-dinan-larry-fink-georgina-bloomberg-david-letterman-richard-gere-andmore/?sh=4c1e46ee3bef
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mX46e4GtlXM&sttick=0
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B94q7gUu75k
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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