MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Oil supply concerns (Middle East)
– RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism lifts
– Samsung Electronics profits fall for sixth straight quarter
– ETH rallies 5% on close
DOLLAR closed up small:
– AUD down: 66.85 -0.5% (67.14 – 66.79) close off bottom rge
– EUR up: 91.48 +0.22% (91.19 – 91.63) close off top rge
– GPB down: 127.10 -0.29% (127.52 – 126.92) close off bottom rge
– JPY up: 144.43 +0.15% (143.68 – 144.61) close top rge
GOLD flat: $2035 -0.75% (2025 – 2043) close mid to lower rge
DOW/ES/ND: 37737 -0.5%, 4790 -0.22%, 16829 +0.15%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: -925/-2% 46000, ++7/0.3% 2345
CRUDE: $72.23 +$1.46/+2%
Upcoming:
US CPI THURSDAY!
– AU: CPI
– NZ: Building Consents
– JAP: Foreign Reserves
– CH: M2 Money Supply
SPEAKERS:
– ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel
– US Fed’s Williams;
– BoE’s Bailey & Breeden
MAJORS:
DX:
Higher US Treasury Yields helped again pad that floor under the USD. There was also commentary from Fed hawk Bowman (voter) after the close on Monday where she acknowledged her view has evolved to consider the possibility that the rate of inflation could decline further with the policy rate held at the current level for some time. Bowman had previously been calling for more hikes. She also acknowledged that should inflation continue to fall closer to target, it will eventually become appropriate to start the process of lowering their policy rate. However, she remains willing to hike again if needed.
US CPI this week will determine tone. 101 to hold pre number.
No call.
1-
AUD:
“Liking a top here.
66.80 to 67.25.”
Yest mkt report. OH SO CLOSE! 66.79 was low.
AUS CPI TODAY!
No call
6-
EUR:
“F U MS.
Im getting a tattoo.
91 HOLDS and is becoming a FIRM bottom.
Expect 92+ this week.
91 to hold. FU MS.
91.12 – 91.89”
Yest. Mkt report.
91.19 – 91.65 todays range. SO CLOSE AGAIN!
Favour 91 holding pre US CPI.
No call on range.
9-
POUND:
“Sell Pound
127.50 is a sell. 128 to hold.
128 to hold. Dollar found floor.
125.87 – 127.57 (7’s my lucky….)”
Yest Mkt Report.
Todays range 127.50 to 126.89. Hopefully some got on at 127.50.
No call on range
12-
YEN:
Tokyo CPI was cooler than expected at 2.4% and eased from the upwardly revised 2.7% print in November. Core CPI was in line with expectations at 3.5%, however. There is a Japanese 10yr auction on Wednesday which could affect yield differentials ahead of the BoJ’s branch manager meeting and “Sakura report” on Thursday.
No range.
GOLD & SILVER:
Key US data was on the light side Tuesday (November trade deficit narrowed on softening consumer imports while the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index rose amid the rise in stock prices), with little out on Wednesday either ahead of CPI and PPI on Thurs and Fri, respectively. However, NY Fed’s Williams (voter) is scheduled to speak on policy and outlook on Wednesday.
Gold flat on day 2032 – 2047, closed 2035.
No call.
Silver notably weaker 23.40 down to 23.10 closing on lows. $23 a notable figure. But with CPI who knows.
No call.
EQUITIES:
US:
– SPX -0.15% 4,756
– NDX +0.17% 16,678
– DJI -0.42% 37,525
– RUT -1.05% 1,968
EUR:
– DAX -0.17% 16,688.36
– FTSE 100 -0.13% 7,683.96
– CAC 40 -0.32% 7,426.62
– Euro Stoxx 50 -0.39% 4,467.95
SECTORS (S to W): Energy -1.63%, Materials -1.1%, Utilities -0.76%, Real Estate -0.73%, Financials -0.69%, Industrials -0.24%, Consumer Discretionary -0.14%, Health +0.04%, Communication Services +0.13%, Consumer Staples +0.24%, Technology +0.25%
– Samsung Electronics -2.4%: Shares fell in APAC trade after it announced Q4 prelim operating profit was likely to be around -35% Y/Y, with both profit and revenue and short of Wall St. consensus.
– JetBlue -10%: Downgraded at BofA. Pointed towards a tough outlook for domestic airlines and also believes issues with its Geared TurboFan engines could compress growth in 2024. Prior to the open, CEO Robin Hayes announced he is stepping down.
OIL:
WTI (G4) SETTLED USD 1.47 HIGHER AT 72.24/BBL; BRENT (H4) SETTLED USD 1.47 HIGHER AT 77.59/BBL
The crude complex pared some of Monday’s extensive losses amid the ever-growing Middle East tensions and supply concerns. On the latter, there is continued worry about the closure of Libya’s 300k BPD Sharara oilfield in addition to the shutting of Motiva’s Port Arthur, Texas refinery’s (636k BPD) large crude unit and coker on Monday. WTI and Brent grinded higher throughout the European morning on Tuesday to hit peaks of USD 72.93/bbl and 78.19/bbl, respectively, as US participants entered for the session. Through the NY morning, oil pared some of the gains in choppy trade only to retest the highs ahead of settlement. In the Middle East, the Israeli military confirmed source reports that it killed a southern Lebanon commander of Hezbollah’s aerial unit. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia emphasized on supporting efforts to stabilize oil markets and praised OPEC and other countries’ commitment to unity and market stability through declaration of cooperation. Lastly, Nigeria’s NNPC allocated four crude cargoes from its February program to the Dangote refinery (capacity 650k BPD), which is poised to begin operations after years of construction delays. The refinery added it is also looking for crude supplies from countries other than Nigeria. Looking ahead, attention resides on the weekly private inventory data after-hours ahead of EIA’s (Wed). Current expectations (bbls): Crude -0.7mln, Distillate 2.4mln, Gasoline 2.5mln.
US EIA STEO: Raised forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth by 50k BPD, now sees 1.39mln BPD Y/Y increase; 2025 world oil demand to hit 103.67mln BPD, +1.21mln BPD from 2024 (initial forecast).
Oil report courtesy of zerohedge.com
BOND YIELDS:
U/A
CRYPTO
Crypto had some fun today at 4.06 a short squeeze was engineered from 46750 to 47880 then the ensuring crash to 45250 before settling 46k even.
ETH was notably weaker throughout the day before the BTC contagion ramped it from 2250 to 2370 before settling still positive 2350.
BTC -2%, ETH flat.
No call.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you.
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