MARKET REPORT
Review:
– NY FED SCE (DEC) one-year inflation expectation is at 3% (prev. 3.4% in Nov) which is the lowest since January 2021
– United Airlines (UAL) found loose bolts on plug doors during the 737 MAX 9 inspections and discrepant bolts and other parts on the Plug Doors have been found on at least five United Airlines aircraft
– Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said “inflation has come down more than expected” + “the rise in unemployment has been ‘far less’ than what would typically be the case given the reduction in inflation.”
– TECH STOCKS RALLY HARD (ND UP 2%)
– Crypto SURGES (youre welcome)
– Crude DUMPED
– Gold DOWN 0.75%
DOLLAR closed flat:
– AUD up 67.17 +FLAT (66.80 – 67.23) close top rge
– EUR up 91.29 +FLAT (91.52 – 91.06) close mid rge
– GPB up 127.46 +0.25% (126.75- 127.68) close upper rge
– JPY up 144.15 +0.11% (144.70 – 143.67) close mid rge
GOLD down $2039 -0.75% (2025 – 2043) close mid to lower rge
DOW/ES/ND: 37896 +0.45%, 4800 1.35%, 16788 +2%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +3000/6.85% 47000, +110/5% 2335
CRUDE: $70.92 (-$3)
Upcoming:
Building Approvals & Retail Sales
MAJORS:
DX:
Tech equities drove mkt. Money left oil and parked in Tech and BTC (God I hope somebody who engineered the flash crash got ass f……)
Seriously in looking at money flows, this is of interest. Crude is a risk on, so money out of crude = risk off (or lower economic expectations), whilst Crypto is a risk on, Tech is a risk off. 2 risk off vs a crypto hedge. Short crude, long crypto, long tech. But is this just a reversal of recent tech weakness?
So where does this leave the dollar. Well it hung in despite tech stock strength. Despite money pouring into Crypto.
Im liking a floor more an more for the dollar. Less cuts than expected this year (bank on it) will provide dollar support. I think the market is realizing this more and more. 101 to HOLD in te dollar, a crucial close above 102. Would be NERVOUS if short.
Buy dips, go with up-move
101.73 – 103.11
AUD:
We DO have Aus data so all bets are off.
BUT.
Liking a top here.
66.80 to 67.25.
Anything 67.50+ is a fade, look for a turn.
Data will/can/could change
Target 66
67.39 – 66.44 (7’s my lucky number. Yup, Im keeping it in)
EUR:
F U MS.
Im getting a tattoo.
91 HOLDS and is becoming a FIRM bottom.
Expect 92+ this week.
91 to hold. FU MS.
91.12 – 91.89
POUND:
Sell Pound
127.50 is a sell. 128 to hold.
128 to hold. Dollar found floor.
125.87 – 127.57 (7’s my lucky….)
YEN:
Little nerves about the 145 handle, but itll be hit, and itll hold.
Longer term 145 a base.
No range.
GOLD & SILVER:
Weaker on dollar strength.
Im a dollar buyer which see’s gold cap.
No call.
EQUITIES:
US:
– SPX +1.41% 4,764
– NDX +2.11% 16,650
– DJIA +0.58% 37,683
– RUT +1.94% 1,989.
EUR:
– DAX +0.74% 16,716.47
– FTSE 100 +0.06% 7,694.19
– CAC 40 +0.40% 7,450.24
– Euro Stoxx 50 +0.46% 4,484.05
SECTORS (S to W): Technology +2.75%, Consumer Discretionary +1.77%, Communication Services +1.74%, Real Estate +1.43%, Health +0.84%, Utilities +0.72%, Consumer Staples +0.71%, Financials +0.6%, Industrials +0.58%, Materials +0.41%, Energy -1.16%.
– Boeing -8% Spirit AeroSystems Holdings -11%: FAA directed over 170 Boeing 737 MAX 9 planes to be grounded for inspections. US FAA added the 737 MAX 9 aircraft will remain grounded “until operators complete enhanced inspections which include both left and right cabin door exit plugs, door components, and fasteners”. Later in the session, United Airlines said it found loose bolts on plug doors during the 737 MAX 9 inspections.
– Nvidia +6.5%: China clients reluctant to buy downgraded chip. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Nvidia plans to begin mass production in China-focussed AI chip in Q2. Lastly, announced new graphics chips for AI personal computer and a wave of EV makers choose Nvidia Drive for automated driving.
– Moderna +4%: 2023 COVID-19 vaccine sales surpassed expectations. Reiterated 2024 expected product sales of about USD 4bln.
OIL:
Oil saw notable losses on Monday in wake of Saudi cutting its OSPs.
Desks attributed weakness to the Saudi Aramco OSP cuts as indicative of a “weak demand” narrative. As a reminder, Saudi cut its February light crude OSP to Asia by USD 2/bbl from January to a premium of USD 1.50/bbl over Oman/Dubai quotes which is a 27-month low, while it set light crude OSP to NW Europe at a premium of USD 0.90/bbl over ICE Brent settlement and light crude OSP to the US at a premium of USD 5.15/bbl over ASCI, according to Reuters. As such, WTI and Brent extended on initial losses seen in the European morning to hit troughs of USD 70.13/bbl and 75.26/bbl, respectively, as US players entered for the week. Nonetheless, throughout the US afternoon, the complex continued to hover just off lows with little headline newsflow despite risk-on flows highlighted by dollar weakness and stock strength for the duration of the US session. Looking ahead, focus continues to remain on the ever-present geopolitical risks, whereby Maersk and Hapag Lloyd had to deny reports that they have entered a deal with the Houthis on Red Sea package.
Oil report courtesy of zerohedge.com
BOND YIELDS:
1 Mo: 5.407 +0.017 6Mo 5.303 +0.005 1yr 4.873 +0.035 5yr 3.982 +0.026010yr 4.023 +0.021 and the 30yr 4.189 +0.016
2’s/10’s -0.34
CRYPTO
Last Mkt report I called for a hit plus stops of 45 to kick to 47.
Last price 46900.
Continued strength. FOMO.
50k to be looked at.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you.
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