Calendar Week 05-2023

 

The coming Super Thursday is stacking up to be a cracker as market ignores recession risk and is calling Powell’s bluff. Thursday brings us the USA’s FOMC, the UK’s BOE and Europe’s ECB central bank meetings, gonna be fun!

 

The major currencies mostly traded sideways last week, aside from the Aussie, which outperformed all peers on hearsay. With China off last week, commodity markets were well bid on the back of a Chinese recovery. We note here at TCT, that this is your typical “buy the rumour, sell the fact” scenario as there is no data or official announcement that points to any Chinese recovery anytime soon.

 

With a very busy economic calendar from Tuesday night onwards, the week ahead will be one off spiking prices as the market leans on the ropes between bouts of flying fists and elbows. First up is Canadian GDP, then Kiwi jobs, FOMC, BOE, ECB and finishing off with US jobs.

 

If you live for volatility and were bored, or could not find a trade last week, then this is your week. Vol’ is gonna be all over the shop. Trade accordingly.

 

 

Currency Guidance

 

USD – Price has barely moved in almost 3 weeks, floating around the mid 101’s. Choppy stuff. Momentum has ticked higher off the oversold levels, and I am leaning towards the market getting it wrong, a super hawkish FOMC and bullish USD. Looking for price to retrace back to its 50ema, circa 103.50.

 

AUD – With China back at work this week, will the market wake up to the fallacy of surveys? Aussie is way out there on most pairs and needs a retracement, with strong support level at 0.6890 being the target.

 

EUR – As the US Dollar Index is 57.6% Euro it is no surprise that the Euro chart looks identical to US, just upside down. It too has not moved far from the mid 1.08’s for three weeks. Technically it also needs to retrace to support at 1.07.

 

GBP – The resistance of 1.2450 has held, and we got a minor move off the level last week, but it is back knocking on the door of it, showing some surprising strength for the cable. The telling time of Thursday will see if the line holds and we head below 1.20 again.

 

JPY – The downtrend channel of lower highs and lows will come under threat this week. With momentum in the middle, it could go either way, and normally you would look for the channel to remain intact. Problem is news this week can quickly and easily change the technical picture.