Seem like Oil Price is airing high again. Oh, Friday the 13th
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war as it will update per seconds, any volatility from the next morning is getting the charts among the highest levels. Stay in the highest cautious.
Data:
- [🟦 Global Rates | Yields steady as markets balance inflation and growth risks]
Global sovereign yields remained elevated but broadly stable as investors continued to price energy-driven inflation risks against slowing global growth signals.
United States (Treasuries): 2Y ~3.52–3.55%, 5Y ~3.67–3.70%, 10Y ~4.05–4.09%, 30Y ~4.70–4.73%.
United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.56–4.60%.
Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.80–2.83%.
France: 10Y OAT ~3.45–3.48%.
Italy: 10Y BTP ~3.55–3.60%.
Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.30–3.34%.
Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.72–4.78%, 2Y ~4.26–4.30%.
Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.12–2.16%.
China: 10Y CGB ~1.75–1.80%.
The global rates complex remained sensitive to oil-driven inflation expectations and uncertainty around the timing of central-bank policy easing. - [🟩 U.S. Equities | Technology and growth stocks support gains]
Wall Street closed higher as oil prices stabilized and investors rotated back into technology and growth sectors after recent volatility.
Nasdaq Composite: ~22,960 (+0.6%)
S&P 500 (US500): ~6,860 (+0.4%)
Dow Jones: ~48,180 (+0.3%)
Gains were led by technology shares, while energy stocks remained volatile amid fluctuating crude prices. - [🟨 Europe Equities | Modest recovery amid geopolitical uncertainty]
European markets posted moderate gains as oil prices eased slightly and investors reassessed the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.
Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~5,740 (+0.3%)
DAX (GER40): ~23,650 (+0.4%)
CAC 40: ~8,020 (+0.5%)
Defensive sectors and energy names continued to outperform. - [🟩 Asia Equities | Regional markets recover after sharp earlier losses]
Asian markets stabilized after the heavy selloff earlier in the week triggered by the surge in oil prices.
Nikkei 225: ~53,600 (+0.7%)
Exporters and semiconductor stocks helped drive the rebound. - [🟥 Macro “Red News” | Key economic releases from prior session]
China CPI (Feb): +1.3% y/y, accelerating from 2% prior.
China PPI (Feb): -0.9% y/y, improving from -1.4% prior.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (Mar): -3.1, down sharply from 4.2 prior.
Japan Current Account (Jan): ~¥0.94T surplus.
Carry-over macro driver: Weak U.S. February payrolls (-92k) continues to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve and global growth outlook. - [🟧 High-impact headline | Oil volatility remains key driver of global markets]
Energy markets continued to dominate cross-asset sentiment after the earlier surge in crude prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. - [🟧 High-impact headline | Markets monitor Strait of Hormuz shipping risks]
Investors remain focused on potential disruptions to global oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. - [🟧 High-impact headline | Strategic petroleum reserve release under discussion]
Policymakers in major economies are considering coordinated strategic oil reserve releases if supply disruptions intensify. - [🟧 High-impact headline | Stagflation concerns persist among investors]
The combination of rising energy costs and weakening economic indicators has revived concerns about a stagflationary environment in the global economy. - [🟧 High-impact headline | Europe seen as most exposed to energy shock]
Analysts warn that Europe’s dependence on imported energy could amplify the economic impact of sustained oil price increases.
Companies.
+) Adobe traded higher ahead of its quarterly earnings release as investors expect strong growth from generative-AI features embedded across Creative Cloud and Acrobat platforms.
+) Oracle remained under pressure following its earnings report, as slower-than-expected cloud-infrastructure growth weighed on investor sentiment despite rising AI-related demand.
+) Nvidia continued to anchor semiconductor sector sentiment as hyperscale cloud providers expand spending on AI accelerators and data-center GPUs.
+) Broadcom maintained strong investor momentum following its upbeat outlook tied to custom AI chips and networking hardware used in hyperscale data centers.
+) Tesla remained volatile amid renewed concerns about EV demand trends and intensifying global pricing competition, particularly in China and Europe.
+) Apple traded relatively stable as investors assessed the company’s long-term AI strategy and continued strength in its services segment.
+) Microsoft continued to attract institutional inflows as enterprises accelerate adoption of AI tools within its Azure cloud ecosystem.
+) Palantir Technologies advanced amid rising demand for AI-driven analytics platforms from government and defense agencies.
+) Defense contractors Lockheed Martin and RTX Corporation remained supported by expectations of higher global defense spending and sustained order backlogs.
+) Energy majors ExxonMobil and Chevron traded firm alongside resilient crude oil prices and strong free-cash-flow outlooks.
General
PART 1 — Market & Macro Morning Summary (11.03.2026)
Global markets opened the session with persistent geopolitical risk but gradually stabilizing sentiment as investors continued to assess the economic implications of the Middle East conflict and the resilience of global energy supply chains. Energy markets remain the central macro driver, though price volatility has eased slightly compared with the peak levels seen earlier during the crisis.
Equities:
Global equity markets traded with mixed performance as investors balanced geopolitical risks with improving risk appetite in technology and growth sectors. Energy and defense companies remained supported by elevated oil prices, while transportation and industrial sectors continued to face pressure from higher fuel costs and supply-chain disruptions.
Rates & Inflation Expectations:
Government bond markets reflected competing forces between safe-haven demand and inflation risks linked to elevated energy prices. Economists warn that if oil prices remain near current levels, the global disinflation trend could slow, potentially delaying anticipated monetary-policy easing later in the year.
FX & Safe Havens:
The U.S. dollar remained supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty, while gold prices stayed elevated as investors maintained hedging positions against potential escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Macro Theme:
Markets remain dominated by a geopolitical energy-risk regime, with developments surrounding Middle East security and energy supply routes continuing to influence global risk sentiment.
PART 2 — Commodities, FX & Sector Flows
Oil Market Volatility:
Oil prices remained elevated but more stable compared with the sharp rally earlier in the crisis. Brent crude traded around $95 per barrel, while WTI remained near $90, reflecting the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade normally passes, remains the key risk point for global energy supply as shipping traffic continues to face security threats and elevated insurance costs.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Discussions:
G7 governments continue to coordinate discussions around potential strategic petroleum reserve releases to stabilize markets should supply disruptions intensify. Policymakers remain cautious, emphasizing that emergency reserves will only be deployed if supply conditions deteriorate further.
Shipping & Freight Markets:
Freight markets remain strained as tanker operators demand elevated war-risk premiums to operate in the Gulf region. Some shipping routes remain partially disrupted as companies reassess security risks.
Natural Gas:
Gas markets remain volatile amid ongoing uncertainty regarding LNG shipments from the Gulf region and the vulnerability of energy infrastructure.
Sector Rotation:
- Energy: Supported by elevated oil prices and supply disruption risk
- Defense: Benefiting from sustained geopolitical tensions
- Airlines & Logistics: Under pressure due to fuel cost volatility
- Industrials: Impacted by supply-chain disruptions and freight uncertainty
Upcoming News
Markets head into Friday with a demand-confirmation and week-end positioning bias, as investors digest this week’s inflation and producer price data while assessing the resilience of U.S. consumption. Overall market sense is cautiously balanced, with FX and rates reacting primarily to signals on household demand and inflation expectations rather than fresh policy surprises. After a data-heavy mid-week cycle, volatility is expected to be event-driven but short-lived, with positioning adjustments likely dominating into the weekend.
In the United States, attention centers on Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, both critical indicators of household demand and inflation psychology. Retail sales will be examined closely for signs of consumption strength following recent inflation readings; weaker spending could reinforce expectations of gradual economic cooling and weigh on the USD. Conversely, resilient consumption—particularly in core control-group components—would signal continued demand strength and could stabilize yields. The Michigan survey will also be monitored for changes in consumer inflation expectations, a key factor for the Fed’s policy outlook.
Across Europe, the calendar is lighter following the week’s industrial production and PMI data, leaving EUR trading primarily as a function of U.S. yield movements and global risk sentiment. In the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s industrial production and consumption indicators provide incremental insight into domestic economic momentum, though JPY direction remains closely tied to global rate dynamics. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that macro data and positioning adjustments remain the dominant drivers into the close.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 07:50 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Industrial Production (Final) | Activity confirmation; JPY growth sensitivity |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Retail Sales (m/m) | Primary demand signal; USD & rates impact |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | UoM Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) | Confidence and inflation expectations |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Week-end positioning / policy headlines | May amplify late-session volatility |
Snapshot (13.3.2026)
🛢 Oil | Brent Surges Above $100
- WTI Crude 96.88 (+0.52%)
- Brent Crude 101.89 (+8.57%)
Oil prices surged again with Brent breaking above the $100 level as supply concerns and geopolitical tensions continue to drive a significant risk premium in energy markets.
🟢 Dollar Stable Near Highs | DXY 99.68 (-0.07%)
The U.S. Dollar Index held close to the 100 level, consolidating after its recent rally. The dollar remains supported by safe-haven demand amid elevated volatility across global markets.
🔄 G7 FX | Narrow Ranges
- EUR/USD 1.1521 (+0.08%)
- GBP/USD 1.3352 (+0.07%)
- USD/JPY 159.26 (-0.04%)
- USD/CHF 0.7855 (-0.07%)
Major currencies traded in relatively tight ranges as markets stabilized after recent volatility. USD/JPY remained close to the key 160 psychological level.
🪙 Crypto | Mild Gains
- BTC 70,538 (+0.47%)
- ETH 2,078 (+1.22%)
- SOL 86.95 (+0.01%)
Crypto markets posted modest gains, with Bitcoin holding above the 70k level while Ethereum continued to outperform slightly.
🥇 Metals | Slight Recovery
- Gold 5,097 (+0.35%)
- Silver 84.13 (+0.35%)
Precious metals edged higher, reflecting continued hedging demand as geopolitical and commodity volatility persists.
📊 Equities | Mixed Sentiment
- S&P 500 6,681.87 (-0.03%)
- Euro Stoxx 50 5,732.29 (-0.02%)
- Dow Jones 46,787.44 (+0.06%)
- VIX 25.67 (+0.59%)
Equity markets showed mixed performance with volatility remaining elevated. The VIX holding above 25 suggests investors remain cautious amid energy price shocks and global macro uncertainty.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
