Easing. G7 Countries opens the reserves for energy flows at 400mn barrels.
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war as it will update per seconds, any volatility from the next morning is getting the charts among the highest levels. Stay in the highest cautious.
Data:
[🟦 Global Rates | Core sovereign yields] Oil-shock inflation fears kept global long-end yields elevated even after some late-session stabilization in risk assets.
United States (UST): 2Y ~3.56% | 5Y ~3.73% | 10Y ~4.13% | 30Y ~4.77%.
United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.78%.
Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.86%.
France: 10Y OAT ~3.51%.
Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.28–2.30%.
Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.93%.
Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.41%.
China: 10Y CGB ~1.90% area.
Cross-market pricing continued to reflect a stagflation mix: weaker growth signals from the U.S. payrolls miss versus sharply higher energy-driven inflation risk.
[🟩 U.S. Equities | Violent intraday reversal] Wall Street swung from deep early losses to a late rebound after oil retreated from intraday extremes and hopes grew that the Iran conflict may not become protracted.
S&P 500 (US500): 6,795.99 (+0.8%)
Dow Jones: 47,740.80 (+0.5%)
Nasdaq Composite: 22,695.95 (+1.4%)
The rebound came after futures and cash indices had initially sold off hard on the oil shock.
[🟥 Europe Equities | Still under pressure] Europe closed lower as the region remained more exposed to the inflationary impact of higher energy imports.
STOXX 600: 598.70 (-1.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): 5,782.89 (-1.1%)
FTSE 100: 10,284.75 (-1.2%)
National benchmarks in Frankfurt and Paris hit multi-month lows intraday, with energy and defense the only consistent relative outperformers.
[🟥 Japan Equities | Oil-import shock] Japanese equities suffered one of the sharpest regional selloffs as the crude spike hit an energy-importing market already sensitive to higher domestic yields.
Nikkei 225: 52,728.72 (-5.2%)
TOPIX: 3,575.84 (-3.8%)
Exporters, banks, and chip-related names were among the biggest drags.
[🟥 Macro “Red News” | Prior-session key data] The dominant macro overhang remained the weak U.S. February labor report released into the weekend.
Nonfarm payrolls: -92,000
Unemployment rate: 4.4%
Average hourly earnings: 3.8% y/y
The data reinforced a softer growth narrative, but the simultaneous oil surge complicated the Fed outlook by lifting inflation risk.
[🟧 Commodities | Oil shock still dominant] Energy remained the main cross-asset driver.
Brent surged above $119/bbl intraday before settling much lower, while WTI also spiked above $100/bbl before retracing sharply.
Despite the late pullback, the move was still large enough to revive inflation and supply-disruption fears tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
[🟨 Precious Metals | Haven demand mixed] Gold did not behave like a clean safe haven on the day because the stronger dollar and rising inflation expectations offset geopolitical demand. Bullion remained elevated in absolute terms but lagged the scale of the oil move.
[🟧 FX | Classic stress pattern] The dollar strengthened broadly as investors rushed into liquidity and havens, while energy-importer currencies came under pressure. Sterling was notably weak, and JPY volatility remained high as Japan weighed strategic reserve options and the bond market repriced inflation risk.
[🟥 High-impact headline | Stagflation narrative returns] The market’s core concern shifted back to a 1970s-style mix of slower growth and higher inflation. That narrative was visible across assets: oil higher, yields elevated, Europe weaker, Asia under stress, and U.S. equities only recovering after an extreme intraday drawdown.
[🟧 High-impact headline | G7 reserve-release watch] Policymakers discussed emergency oil-reserve options, but no coordinated release was confirmed during the session. Markets remain highly sensitive to any signal on reserve deployment, Gulf shipping security, or de-escalation headlines.
Companies.
+) Oracle traded higher ahead of its quarterly earnings release as investors positioned for continued growth in cloud infrastructure and AI-related database services.
+) Adobe remained in focus before its earnings announcement, with analysts expecting strong demand for generative-AI tools integrated into its creative and document software platforms.
+) Nvidia continued to draw strong institutional interest as hyperscale cloud providers expand spending on AI accelerators and data-center infrastructure.
+) Broadcom maintained upward momentum following strong guidance tied to custom AI chips used by large technology companies.
+) Tesla traded lower amid renewed concerns about EV demand growth and ongoing pricing competition in global markets.
+) Palantir Technologies gained as government and defense-related AI analytics platforms continued to attract new contracts and investor interest.
+) Lockheed Martin advanced amid sustained geopolitical tensions and expectations of higher defense budgets across NATO countries.
+) RTX Corporation traded higher as investors focused on its strong missile-defense backlog and stable aerospace aftermarket demand.
+) Boeing remained volatile as investors monitored progress on aircraft production ramp-ups and regulatory approvals for key jet programs.
+) ExxonMobil and Chevron moved higher in line with firm crude prices and continued strong cash-flow generation across the energy sector.
General
PART 1 — Market & Macro Morning Summary (09.03.2026)
Global markets opened the session under persistent geopolitical stress and elevated energy volatility as the U.S.–Iran conflict continues to disrupt shipping routes and oil supply flows across the Persian Gulf. The macro narrative remains dominated by the risk that energy-driven inflation could slow the global disinflation trend and complicate central-bank easing expectations later in the year.
Equities:
Global equity markets traded cautiously with continued defensive sector rotation. Energy producers and defense companies remained supported by rising oil prices and geopolitical risk, while airlines, logistics firms, and export-oriented industrials lagged due to higher fuel costs and disrupted supply chains.
Rates & Inflation Expectations:
Government bond markets reflected competing forces between safe-haven demand and rising inflation expectations tied to energy prices. Investors increasingly view the current energy shock as a potential headwind to the expected monetary-policy easing cycle.
FX & Safe Havens:
The U.S. dollar remained broadly supported by safe-haven flows and higher oil prices, while gold continued to attract hedging demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Macro Theme:
Markets remain in a geopolitical supply-shock regime, with developments in the Persian Gulf and disruptions to maritime oil trade continuing to dominate cross-asset price movements.
PART 2 — Commodities, FX & Sector Flows
Oil & Energy Markets:
Crude oil markets remain the central driver of global sentiment. Brent crude traded around $95–$100 per barrel, while WTI hovered near $92–$95, reflecting the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets as supply disruptions persist.
The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply, remains heavily disrupted as tanker operators suspend voyages due to security risks and insurance withdrawals.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release:
In response to the energy shock, G7 countries announced a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize global oil supply and prevent further price spikes. The emergency measure is designed to offset temporary supply shortages caused by shipping disruptions and reassure energy markets.
Shipping & Freight Markets:
Freight markets remain severely disrupted. Tanker charter rates have surged as shipowners demand large risk premiums to enter the Gulf. Many vessels remain stranded near Gulf export terminals awaiting improved security conditions.
Natural Gas:
Gas markets remain volatile as uncertainty surrounding LNG shipments from the Gulf persists. Qatar’s LNG exports remain a critical factor for global supply stability.
Sector Rotation:
- Energy: Supported by supply disruptions and higher oil prices
- Defense: Benefiting from geopolitical tensions
- Airlines & Logistics: Under pressure due to fuel costs and rerouted flights
- Global Industrials: Impacted by shipping delays and trade disruptions
Upcoming News
Markets move into Tuesday with a heightened inflation-build-up focus, as investors position cautiously ahead of the U.S. CPI release later in the week. Overall market sense is tactically defensive, following the post-NFP repricing of yields and FX. Participants are closely monitoring incoming data for signals on pricing power and demand conditions that could influence expectations for the Fed’s policy trajectory into Q2. As a result, FX and rates are expected to trade with a data-sensitive bias, while equities remain selective and tied to real-rate movements.
In the United States, attention centers on NFIB Small Business Optimism and inventory-related indicators, which provide insight into hiring intentions, pricing pressures, and business sentiment. The NFIB survey’s pricing and compensation components are closely watched as early signals of services inflation dynamics, making them particularly relevant ahead of CPI. Softer sentiment and easing pricing intentions could reinforce expectations of continued disinflation and weigh modestly on the USD, while stronger readings may keep front-end yields supported.
Across Europe, Germany’s final CPI serves as a confirmation check on inflation trends within the Eurozone, helping refine expectations for the ECB’s policy stance. EUR price action, however, remains primarily influenced by U.S. yield differentials. In the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s producer-price data provides insight into pipeline inflation relevant to the Bank of Japan’s normalization debate, while China remains largely headline-driven following earlier CPI and PPI releases. Corporate catalysts remain limited, leaving macro positioning and inflation anticipation as the dominant drivers.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:50 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | PPI (y/y) | Pipeline inflation; BoJ policy expectations |
| 14:00 | 🔴 Red News | Germany | CPI (Final, y/y) | Inflation confirmation; ECB outlook |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Wholesale Inventories (m/m) | Demand and inventory dynamics |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Pricing and hiring intentions |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Pre-CPI positioning / policy headlines | May amplify FX and rates volatility |
Snapshot (09.3.2026)
🛢 Oil | Volatility After Spike
- WTI Crude 89.05 (+4.68%)
- Brent Crude 89.77 (-3.62%)
Oil markets remained highly volatile following the prior session’s surge. WTI rebounded toward $89 while Brent corrected lower, reflecting unstable positioning as traders reassess supply risks and geopolitical developments.
🟢 Dollar Stable | DXY 98.80 (+0.07%)
The U.S. Dollar Index held steady near 98.8 after the sharp rally earlier in the week. The dollar continues to benefit from safe-haven demand as markets digest heightened energy and geopolitical uncertainty.
🔄 G7 FX | Limited Moves
- EUR/USD 1.1626 (-0.08%)
- GBP/USD 1.3432 (-0.02%)
- USD/JPY 157.83 (+0.11%)
- USD/CHF 0.7742 (+0.02%)
Major FX pairs traded within narrow ranges. USD/JPY remained firm above 157 while EUR continued to face mild pressure amid the stronger dollar backdrop.
🪙 Crypto | Strong Rebound
- BTC 68,556 (+3.91%)
- ETH 2,000 (+3.25%)
- SOL 85.41 (+4.01%)
Crypto markets bounced sharply after the recent selloff, with Bitcoin recovering above 68k and altcoins leading the rebound as risk appetite partially returned.
🥇 Metals | Gradual Recovery
- Gold 5,143 (+0.08%)
- Silver 87.53 (+0.63%)
Precious metals edged higher as investors maintained selective hedging despite the stronger dollar environment.
📊 Equities | Cautious Tone
- S&P 500 6,776.25 (-0.23%)
- Euro Stoxx 50 5,769.69 (-0.32%)
- Dow Jones 47,610.45 (-0.24%)
- VIX 24.12 (+1.15%)
Equity markets remained under pressure following the oil shock. Volatility stayed elevated with the VIX above 24, signaling persistent caution among investors..
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
