Today is NFP day, US – Iran in day 6 of conflicts
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war as it will update per seconds, any volatility from the next morning is getting the charts among the highest levels. Stay in the highest cautious.
Data:
🟦 Global Rates & Sovereign Yields | Bond yields stabilize after recent repricing
- United States (Treasuries)
- 2Y: ~73–3.77%
- 5Y: ~03–4.07%
- 10Y: ~38–4.42%
- 30Y: ~02–5.07%
Treasury yields stabilized after recent increases as markets balanced strong economic data with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy longer.
- United Kingdom
- 10Y Gilt: ~70–4.76%
Persistent services inflation and firm wage growth continued to keep UK sovereign yields elevated.
- 10Y Gilt: ~70–4.76%
- Germany / Eurozone
- 10Y Bund: ~15–3.20%
- France 10Y OAT: ~36%
- Italy 10Y BTP: ~82–3.88%
Eurozone bond markets broadly tracked U.S. Treasury movements.
- Japan
- 10Y JGB: ~52–2.57%
Markets continued pricing gradual Bank of Japan normalization.
- 10Y JGB: ~52–2.57%
- Australia
- 10Y ACGB: ~18–5.26%
Elevated inflation expectations maintained upward pressure on yields.
- 10Y ACGB: ~18–5.26%
- Canada
- 10Y GoC: ~74–3.82%
Canadian sovereign yields remained aligned with global bond trends.
- 10Y GoC: ~74–3.82%
- China
- 10Y Government Bond: ~99–2.03%
Reflecting accommodative monetary policy aimed at supporting growth.
- 10Y Government Bond: ~99–2.03%
🟨 Global Equity Markets | Global equities rebound modestly
United States (Wed close)
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.8% → ~22,350
- S&P 500 (US500): +0.6% → ~6,780
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.4% → ~49,260
Technology shares rebounded following prior session losses as yields stabilized.
Europe (Wed close)
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): +0.9%
- DAX (GER40): +1.1%
- CAC 40: +0.8%
European equities recovered alongside improved global risk sentiment.
Asia (Thu early trade)
- Nikkei 225: +0.4%
Japanese equities rebounded modestly as yen strength moderated.
🟥 Macro “Red News” — Prior-Day Economic Drivers
- United States – ADP Employment: Private payrolls increased moderately, reinforcing resilience in the labor market.
- S. ISM Services PMI: Remained firmly in expansion territory, highlighting continued strength in the services sector.
- Eurozone Producer Prices (PPI): Data showed easing input cost pressures.
- Australia GDP (Q4): Economic growth slowed slightly due to tighter financial conditions.
- Canada Trade Balance: Export growth improved, driven by energy shipments.
🔶 High-Impact Market-Moving Headlines
- Markets continue to push back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Global sovereign yields remain near multi-year highs, tightening financial conditions.
- Technology stocks rebound modestly after recent yield-driven selloff.
- Energy sector leadership continues amid firm crude prices.
- Bank of Japan normalization expectations remain a key driver of FX volatility.
- Investors rotate between growth and value sectors amid uncertain rate outlook.
- European equities attract steady capital inflows as earnings remain resilient.
Companies.
+) CrowdStrike shares rallied after posting stronger-than-expected quarterly results, with subscription revenue growth and enterprise client additions reinforcing the long-term cybersecurity demand outlook.
+) Broadcom remained in focus ahead of its earnings release, as investors positioned around expectations for strong AI networking-chip demand driven by hyperscale data-center spending.
+) GitLab advanced after reporting revenue growth above consensus estimates, supported by expanding adoption of its DevOps automation tools across enterprise clients.
+) Pure Storage gained following upbeat earnings and guidance tied to growing demand for high-performance storage solutions supporting AI workloads.
+) Tesla traded lower amid ongoing debate around EV demand growth and increasing pricing competition in major markets including China and Europe.
+) Nvidia remained volatile as investors continued to assess sustainability of AI accelerator demand and supply-chain constraints within the semiconductor ecosystem.
+) Apple moved modestly higher as analysts highlighted stable services revenue and expectations of new product launches later in the year.
+) Lockheed Martin advanced alongside the broader defense sector amid expectations of sustained global military spending and strong missile-defense order pipelines.
+) RTX Corporation traded firmer as investors focused on continued backlog growth across missile systems and aerospace components.
+) Northrop Grumman gained after analysts reiterated long-term demand visibility for strategic missile and space-defense programs.
General
PART 1 — Market & Macro Morning Summary (05.03.2026)
Global markets opened Wednesday’s session under continued geopolitical tension and elevated energy volatility as the U.S.–Iran confrontation entered a more complex phase involving naval operations and disruptions to commercial shipping across the Gulf. Market participants are increasingly focused on how sustained energy shocks could influence global inflation trajectories and monetary-policy expectations.
Equities:
Global equity markets traded cautiously with continued sector divergence. Energy producers and defense contractors remained among the strongest performers as oil prices stayed elevated, while transportation, airlines, and manufacturing exporters lagged amid rising fuel costs and supply-chain disruptions.
Rates & Inflation Expectations:
Sovereign bond markets remain caught between safe-haven demand and the inflationary implications of higher oil prices. Analysts warn that if energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, the timeline for central-bank easing cycles could be delayed.
FX & Safe Havens:
The U.S. dollar remained supported by safe-haven demand and higher energy prices, while gold also held firm as investors continued to hedge geopolitical risk.
Macro Theme:
Markets remain in a geopolitical-energy transmission regime, where developments in the Middle East and shipping logistics are influencing cross-asset pricing more than macroeconomic data releases.
PART 2 — Commodities, FX & Sector Flows
Oil & Energy Markets:
Crude oil prices remained elevated as the conflict continued to disrupt shipping routes in the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz — responsible for roughly 20% of global oil trade — remains partially restricted, with many tanker operators avoiding the route due to security risks.
Freight costs for crude tankers have surged to historic levels as shipowners demand substantial risk premiums to enter the Gulf region. Shipping insurers have also significantly increased war-risk premiums, contributing to tighter global energy logistics.
Natural Gas:
Gas markets remain volatile due to concerns about LNG supply disruptions from Qatar and transport bottlenecks across Middle East export routes.
Sector Rotation:
- Energy: Supported by supply disruptions and higher oil prices
- Defense: Benefiting from geopolitical tensions
- Airlines & Logistics: Under pressure due to fuel costs and rerouted flights
- Global Industrials: Impacted by shipping delays and trade disruptions
Upcoming News
Markets head into Friday with a high-conviction, labour-market focus, as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report becomes the primary macro catalyst for global FX, rates, and equity sentiment. Overall market sense is cautious but highly reactive, with investors tightening positioning following a week dominated by services and employment signals. Volatility is expected to peak around the payrolls release, particularly across USD pairs, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and equity index futures, as markets reassess the strength of the labour market and its implications for the Fed’s policy path.
In the United States, attention centers on Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. Markets will focus especially on wage growth, as services inflation remains closely tied to labour costs. A scenario featuring moderate job gains and cooling wage pressures would reinforce the soft-landing narrative and support expectations for gradual policy easing later in 2026, likely weighing on the USD and supporting Treasuries. Conversely, a strong payrolls number accompanied by firm wage growth could trigger a sharp repricing higher in yields and provide near-term support for the dollar.
Across Europe, the data calendar is relatively light, leaving EUR and GBP largely reactive to U.S. yield movements and cross-asset sentiment. In the Asia–Pacific region, China’s trade data and Japan’s household spending indicators provide incremental insights into regional demand conditions, though JPY direction remains primarily driven by global rate dynamics. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that today’s session is overwhelmingly macro- and policy-driven, with payrolls outcomes likely determining market direction into the weekend
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 09:00 | 🔴 Red News | China | Trade Balance | External demand and global trade flows |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Primary labour-market catalyst; USD & rates |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Unemployment Rate | Labour slack indicator; Fed policy expectations |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Average Hourly Earnings | Wage inflation; critical for services inflation outlook |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | NFP-driven volatility / week-end positioning | May amplify intraday moves |
Snapshot (06.3.2026)
🟢 Dollar Strengthens | DXY 99.06 (+0.29%)
The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to 99.06, extending its recovery as markets continue to favor defensive positioning. The move keeps the dollar near recent highs, supported by resilient U.S. macro expectations.
🔄 G7 FX | USD Firm but Ranges Hold
- EUR/USD 1.1613 (+0.04%)
- GBP/USD 1.3363 (+0.07%)
- USD/JPY 157.52 (-0.02%)
- USD/CHF 0.7806 (-0.06%)
Major currency pairs traded within tight ranges despite the firmer dollar. EUR and GBP edged slightly higher while USD/JPY remained stable above the 157 level.
🪙 Crypto | Stable Trading
- BTC 70,966 (+0.10%)
- ETH 2,077 (+0.19%)
- SOL 88.85 (-0.30%)
Crypto markets showed mild gains, with Bitcoin holding near the 71k mark. Ethereum followed higher while altcoins remained mixed after recent volatility.
🥇 Metals | Gradual Recovery
- Gold 5,087 (+0.06%)
- Silver 83.09 (+0.93%)
Precious metals edged higher, supported by steady safe-haven demand. Silver outperformed gold, reflecting stronger momentum in industrial-linked metals.
📊 Equities | Mixed Performance
- S&P 500 6,841.52 (+0.30%)
- Dow Jones 48,094.42 (+0.34%)
- Nasdaq 100 25,020.41 (-0.29%)
- VIX 22.47 (-1.53%)
U.S. equity futures showed mixed signals, with the Dow and S&P stabilizing while tech shares softened slightly. The decline in VIX suggests easing volatility despite uneven sector performance.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
