USD is on dump as Trump made it too bad. Evil Manipulator.
Data:
1) Global Rates / Yields — Key Benchmarks
- United States 10‑yr Treasury Yield: ~24% (unchanged to modestly higher) — U.S. yields remained elevated as bond markets recalibrated after tariff headlines and mixed data.
- United Kingdom 10‑yr Gilt Yield: ~50%, reflecting higher borrowing costs amid fiscal uncertainty and strong inflation signals.
- Canada 10‑yr Government Yield: ~40%, holding within recent ranges amid broader G10 rate stability.
- Japan Government Bonds: Long‑bond yields remained historically high, with some maturities above 4%, driven by fiscal/political dynamics.
- German Bund (10‑yr): ~87%, slightly firmer in response to European debt supply shifts and global rate direction.
2) Equity Index Moves
- US Major Indexes (Thu 22 Jan close):
- S&P 500: ~6,913 (+0.5%) — investors lifted equities on tariff relief headlines.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: ~49,384 (+0.6%) — broad gains across sectors.
- Nasdaq Composite: ~23,436 (+0.9%) — tech leadership supported the rally.
- Japan — Nikkei 225: +1.7% in regional trade as global sentiment improved.
- Europe — Major Indexes:
- Euro Stoxx 50: Europe equities up as tariff fears subsided and risk appetite returned.
- DAX (GER40): ~+1.2%, Germany led continental gains.
- CAC 40: ~+1.3%, France joined European rebound.
3) Prior‑Day Macro / “Red News”
- Tariff‑Triggered Volatility (Tue): Markets experienced sharp sell‑offs after U.S. tariff threats against European trading partners linked to Greenland negotiations — major U.S. indexes fell with the S&P 500 down over 2%, Nasdaq off ~2.4% and Dow ~1.8%.
- Treasury Yields Spiked:S. 10‑yr Treasury yields climbed toward ~4.29%, the highest in months, driven by bond selling amid geopolitical risk and reduced safe‑haven flows.
- Japan Yields Surge: Japanese long‑term government bond yields rallied to multi‑decade highs, accentuating global duration pressure and influencing cross‑asset positioning.
4) High‑Impact Market Headlines
- Tariff Retreat / “TACO” Trade: President Trump rescinded threatened tariffs on European allies tied to Greenland, triggering a strong rebound in U.S. and European equities — dubbed the “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO) trade.
- Risk Sentiment Rebounds: Global risk assets climbed broadly following tariff de‑escalation, with volatility (VIX) easing and small caps outperforming.
- Robust U.S. Data Support: Economic indicators hinted at solid consumer spending and labor resilience, keeping rate expectations grounded despite volatility.
- Currency & Safe Havens: The U.S. dollar weakened while gold and other haven assets remained supported, reflecting ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.
- European Debt Strategy Shift: Eurozone governments pivoted toward short‑term borrowing as demand for long‑dated bonds waned, pressuring yields and balance‑sheet strategies.
- Sector Rotation: Technology and communications services led gains in U.S. markets, while more defensive and rate‑sensitive assets lagged.
- Cryptocurrency Reaction: Digital assets showed macro sensitivity, first falling then rebounding on tariff relief and broader market flows.
Companies.
+) Intel shares were volatile after earnings, as investors weighed solid near-term AI/data-center demand against a cautious margin and capex outlook, reinforcing the view that 2026 will be a transition year rather than a sharp recovery.
+) Procter & Gamble reported results broadly in line with expectations and reiterated pricing discipline and cost control, supporting its status as a core defensive holding amid market volatility.
+) Johnson & Johnson continued to trade firm following its earnings release, with investors focusing on pipeline visibility and resilience in pharma demand despite softness in select consumer-health segments.
+) Travelers extended gains after confirming strong underwriting margins and capital return plans, keeping insurers among the better-performing financial subsectors.
+) AT&T edged lower after earnings as free-cash-flow guidance disappointed, renewing concerns over balance-sheet flexibility despite stable subscriber trends.
+) American Airlines traded lower after flagging cost pressures and normalization in post-pandemic demand, weighing on the broader airline complex.
+) Tesla remained under pressure ahead of its upcoming earnings, as investors continued to debate pricing strategy, margins, and competitive intensity in the global EV market.
+) Nvidia was mixed as enthusiasm around AI infrastructure spending was balanced by near-term valuation sensitivity following January’s rally.
+) Boeing underperformed amid ongoing scrutiny of production timelines and regulatory oversight, keeping aerospace sentiment cautious.
+) Netflix continued to consolidate after recent earnings, with investors reassessing content spending, advertising momentum, and M&A risk.
+) Charles Schwab held steady as the market looked ahead to asset-flow updates and normalization in cash sorting behavior.
+) Newmont found support as gold prices remained firm, benefiting miners amid lingering macro uncertainty.
+) Shell and BP traded narrowly as investors awaited clearer signals on capital discipline and shareholder returns amid range-bound oil prices.
+) ASML remained supported in Europe, with analysts highlighting order-book visibility tied to advanced-node AI demand despite geopolitical constraints.
+) Overall, company-specific earnings and guidance drove dispersion, with defensives and insurers outperforming while airlines, telecoms, and select growth names lagged.
** Winners/ Losers:
| Ticker | Company | Move | Key Driver |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | +2–3% | Earnings visibility |
| TRV | Travelers | +2% | Strong underwriting, buybacks |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | +1–2% | Defensive rotation |
| NEM | Newmont | +1–2% | Gold-linked support |
| UNH | UnitedHealth | +1% | Healthcare defensiveness |
| Ticker | Company | Move | Key Driver |
| NTAP | NetApp | -3–4% | IT spending concerns |
| DELL | Dell Technologies | -2–3% | Enterprise capex slowdown |
| TSLA | Tesla | -2% | Growth multiple pressure |
| NVDA | Nvidia | -1–2% | Post-rally consolidation |
| BA | Boeing | -1–2% | Trade sensitivity |
General
Currency Overview: FX markets remain disciplined as investors prioritize relative policy paths over directional risk
G10 FX traded with subdued volatility as markets continued to favor relative-value positioning rather than outright directional exposure. Liquidity was stable, but conviction remained limited as investors balanced disinflation progress against lingering growth uncertainty, reinforcing a consolidation bias across major currency pairs.
EUR: Euro softens modestly as weak growth signals cap upside
The euro edged lower as renewed focus on fragile Eurozone growth outweighed stable ECB policy expectations. With limited positive data catalysts, EUR price action remained driven by rate differentials and positioning rather than an improvement in the regional macro outlook.
GBP: Sterling trades defensively amid persistent UK growth and fiscal concerns
Sterling underperformed modestly as investors revisited concerns over the UK’s soft growth profile and fiscal constraints. While global yield dynamics provided some offset, GBP continued to trade with a domestic risk premium embedded.
USD: Dollar firms slightly on defensive demand and liquidity preference
The U.S. dollar gained marginal support as risk sentiment softened at the margin, benefiting from its role as a liquidity anchor. Although expectations for gradual Fed easing remain intact, near-term flows favored USD amid uncertainty around global growth momentum.
JPY: Yen remains pressured as carry dynamics dominate low-volatility conditions
The yen stayed weak as stable global yields and compressed volatility continued to encourage carry positioning. In the absence of fresh domestic policy signals, JPY remained driven by external rate differentials rather than safe-haven demand.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver consolidate as hedge demand persists
Gold and silver traded in narrow ranges, supported by contained real yields and ongoing demand for portfolio hedges. However, the lack of acute geopolitical escalation limited upside momentum in precious metals.
Energy: Oil prices ease as demand uncertainty regains focus
Brent and WTI edged lower as markets refocused on uncertain global demand prospects. While geopolitical risks and supply discipline remained background supports, they were insufficient to offset concerns around consumption and growth.
Equity Flow: Investors rotate toward defensives and earnings visibility
Equity flows reflected a cautious tone, with investors favoring defensives, large-cap quality, and sectors offering clearer earnings visibility. Broader risk appetite cooled slightly, consistent with late-cycle discipline rather than outright risk aversion.
Geopolitics: Strategic tensions remain a structural constraint
Major geopolitical themes, including U.S.–China rivalry and ongoing regional conflicts, remained unchanged during the session. These risks continued to cap medium-term sentiment without triggering immediate volatility.
Corporate Focus: Guidance credibility and cost discipline dominate attention
Investor focus remained centered on companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and conservative guidance. Firms exposed to margin pressure or demand uncertainty faced increased scrutiny as earnings season approaches.
Systemic View: Markets signal consolidation rather than stress or risk-on shift
Across asset classes, price action continued to point to stabilization and selective de-risking rather than a decisive move toward higher risk. Financial conditions remained supportive, but investors stayed cautious, awaiting clearer confirmation from data and corporate earnings.
Upcoming News
Markets head into Friday with a late-week consolidation bias, as investors digest PMI and claims data from earlier in the week while preparing for weekend risk and positioning adjustments. Overall market sense is neutral-to-cautiously constructive, supported by easing inflation expectations but capped by mixed growth signals. FX and rates are likely to trade range-bound with data-driven bursts, while equities remain selective, focusing on confirmation rather than extension of risk.
In the United States, attention turns to housing and sentiment indicators, which provide incremental insight into demand resilience after recent inflation and labour updates. Markets will assess whether housing activity continues to stabilise and whether consumers remain confident enough to sustain spending into early Q1. Softer reads would reinforce expectations of Fed easing later in 2026 and pressure the USD; resilience could help stabilise yields into the close.
Across Europe, the calendar is lighter following the flash PMI cycle, leaving EUR largely reactive to U.S. yield movements and cross-currency flows. In Asia–Pacific, Japan’s national CPI is the key regional catalyst, with implications for the Bank of Japan’s normalization debate and JPY sensitivity. China remains headline-driven, with policy and liquidity signals shaping regional risk sentiment. Corporate catalysts remain limited, keeping macro confirmation and positioning as the dominant drivers.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:30 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | CPI (y/y) | Inflation trend; BoJ policy expectations and JPY sensitivity |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | New Home Sales | Housing demand signal; USD and rates impact |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Confidence and demand outlook |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Inflation psychology; Fed credibility |
| All day | 🟡 Earnings | — | No major earnings scheduled | (Yahoo Finance) |
| All day | 🟡 IPO Pricings | — | No IPO pricing scheduled | (Yahoo Finance) |
| All day | 🟡 Stock Splits | — | No stock splits scheduled | (Yahoo Finance) |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Week-end positioning / policy headlines | Can exaggerate moves into the close |
Snapshot – End 20.1.2026
FX
- DXY fell to 27 (-0.53%), extending the dollar pullback amid softer U.S. yields.
- EUR/USD edged higher to 1757 (+0.02%), supported by broad USD weakness.
- GBP/USD held firm at 3505 (+0.01%), trading sideways.
- USD/JPY ticked up to 40 (+0.04%), stabilizing after recent volatility.
- AUD/USD slipped to 6839 (-0.03%), while NZD/USD fell to 0.5912 (-0.24%).
Crypto
- Bitcoin eased to 89,211 (-0.18%), consolidating after recent sell-offs.
- Ethereum declined to 2,945 (-1.17%), underperforming BTC.
- Solana dropped to 38 (-0.83%); Optimism edged down to 0.306 (-0.65%).
Commodities
- Gold rose slightly to 4,943 (+0.10%), supported by weaker USD.
- Silver advanced to 58 (+0.42%), tracking gold higher.
- Copper was flat at 84 (-0.01%).
- Brent crude slipped to 24 (-1.49%), reflecting demand concerns.
Equities / Indices
- S&P 500 ended marginally lower at 6,908 (-0.04%).
- Dow Jones edged up to 49,380 (+0.02%).
- Euro Stoxx 50 dipped to 5,946 (-0.04%).
- CAC 40 outperformed at 8,149 (+0.99%).
- Nasdaq 100 climbed to 25,518 (+0.76%).
- VIX inched up to 97 (+0.14%), signaling mildly elevated volatility.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
