CPI Australia and ADP Non-farm incoming…
Data:
🟦 Global Rates / Yields
- United States: UST 2Y 3.45%, 10Y 4.16% — long-end yields remained sticky as markets priced a “higher-for-longer” risk premium despite easing expectations elsewhere.
- Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.90%, supported by cooling inflation but constrained by fiscal dynamics.
- United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.49%, still elevated amid mortgage sensitivity and supply concerns.
- Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.13%, near multi-decade highs, reinforcing Japan as a key global duration risk.
- Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.81%, reflecting persistent global term-premium pressure.
- Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.45%, tracking U.S. yields higher.
🟩 Equities — Major Index Moves
- S&P 500 (US500): +0.6% to 6,944.82 (record close)
- Dow Jones: +1.0% to 49,462.08 (record close)
- Nasdaq: +0.6% to 23,547.17
- Russell 2000: +1.4%, signaling broader risk participation beyond mega-cap tech.
- STOXX 600: +0.58% to ~605.28, fresh record close.
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): +0.17% to ~5,933.85.
- CAC 40: ~+0.3% to ~8,237.
- DAX (GER40): ~+0.1% to ~24,892.
- Nikkei 225: +1.3% to 52,518.08, closing at a new all-time high on strong risk-on flows.
🟨 Macro / Economic Calendar
- Germany CPI (Dec): 0% y/y, below expectations, reinforcing euro-area disinflation momentum.
- France HICP inflation: around 7% y/y, confirming broad-based cooling price pressures across the bloc.
- Risk appetite absorbed geopolitical shock: Markets largely looked through Venezuela escalation headlines, though defence and energy stocks outperformed in Europe.
- Japan bond auction in focus: 10Y JGB auction yield 2.095% vs 1.872% prior, underscoring ongoing repricing pressure in Japanese rates.
- Europe catch-up trade strengthened: Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month STOXX 600 target to 625 (from 615), citing earnings resilience and valuation appeal.
- FX — Sterling strength: GBP/USD ~1.3536, highest since mid-September, supported by improved sentiment and carry dynamics. AUD/USD got nearly 1-year high at 67420
- Cross-asset signal: Equity records alongside elevated global yields highlighted investors’ willingness to add risk despite tighter financial conditions.
Companies.
+) Large U.S. banks moved into focus, as investors positioned ahead of the upcoming Q4 earnings season, with expectations centered on net interest margin stability and capital return guidance.
+) Industrial bellwethers traded higher, supported by optimism around U.S. infrastructure spending and early signs of capex recovery in 2026.
+) Boeing shares extended gains, as investors reacted positively to improving production momentum and delivery outlook following late-2025 operational progress.
+) Energy majors rebounded modestly, tracking stabilization in crude prices and selective bargain hunting after recent underperformance.
+) Semiconductor stocks consolidated, with investors locking in profits after strong early-January gains tied to AI and data-center demand expectations.
+) High-beta technology names faced mild pressure, reflecting rotation away from growth toward value and cyclicals rather than negative company-specific news.
+) Software and cloud companies traded mixed, as investors awaited clearer guidance during the upcoming earnings season.
+) Healthcare insurers and managed-care companies outperformed, benefiting from defensive characteristics and earnings visibility.
+) Automakers and EV-related stocks traded unevenly, as demand outlooks and pricing competition remained key concerns heading into 2026.
+) Retail and consumer companies paused, following strong post-holiday trading and ahead of January sales updates.
** Top 5 Gainers
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Boeing | ~$120B | High | +3.1% | Industrial strength |
| JPMorgan Chase | ~$450B | Medium | +2.4% | Financials leadership |
| Caterpillar | ~$150B | Medium | +2.2% | Infrastructure optimism |
| Exxon Mobil | ~$465B | Medium | +1.9% | Energy rebound |
| UnitedHealth Group | ~$520B | Medium | +1.6% | Healthcare resilience |
** Top 5 Loser
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Nvidia | ~$2.2T | High | −2.1% | Tech consolidation |
| Tesla | ~$780B | High | −1.8% | High-beta pullback |
| Adobe | ~$260B | Medium | −1.4% | Software weakness |
| Salesforce | ~$300B | Medium | −1.2% | Valuation concerns |
| Netflix | ~$260B | Medium | −1.1% | Communication services drag |
General
Currency Overview trades with moderate volatility as early-January positioning gains traction G10 FX saw slightly firmer activity as investors continued to deploy fresh allocations after the holiday period, with price action driven more by relative policy expectations than risk sentiment. The U.S. dollar was mixed, reflecting a balance between easing expectations and intermittent defensive demand.
EUR holds supported as policy asymmetry with the Fed remains a key anchor The euro traded steadily as markets continued to price a more cautious ECB easing path relative to the Fed. With Eurozone data flow light, EUR movements were driven primarily by rate differentials and portfolio rebalancing rather than a shift in growth expectations.
GBP stabilizes as global yield dynamics offset domestic uncertainty Sterling moved sideways as early-year inflows balanced ongoing concerns over the UK’s soft growth outlook. In the absence of fresh BOE signals, GBP remained sensitive to global rates and broader FX sentiment rather than domestic catalysts.
USD consolidates as easing expectations remain intact but measured The Dollar Index was broadly stable as markets maintained expectations for gradual, data-dependent Fed easing. Reduced year-end funding demand limited downside pressure, while the absence of new macro shocks capped defensive upside.
JPY weakens modestly as carry dynamics reassert in calmer markets The yen softened slightly as stable U.S. yields and subdued volatility encouraged selective carry positioning. With no new BOJ communication, JPY price action remained closely tied to global rate movements.
Gold trades firmer as geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty support demand Gold prices edged higher as investors maintained a degree of defensive exposure amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Contained real yields continued to underpin bullion, even as risk appetite improved marginally elsewhere.
Oil remains supported as supply risks offset persistent demand concerns Brent and WTI held near recent highs as supply-side uncertainties continued to provide support, while markets remained cautious on the global demand outlook. Energy pricing suggested a balanced view between geopolitical risk and growth uncertainty.
Equity Flow shows cautious early-year re-engagement led by quality exposure Equity flows pointed to selective risk-taking, with investors favoring large-cap quality and rate-sensitive sectors. The pattern reflected early-year positioning rather than conviction in a rapid growth rebound.
Geopolitical focus remains elevated with energy-related risks in view Geopolitical developments continued to draw attention, particularly in energy-sensitive regions, reinforcing a modest risk premium across commodities. Markets treated these risks as potential tail events rather than immediate disruptors.
Corporate narratives emphasize discipline as firms outline 2026 priorities Company commentary early in the year focused on cost control, cautious demand assumptions, and capital discipline. Investor reaction underscored sensitivity to earnings visibility and balance-sheet strength.
Upcoming News
Markets head into Wednesday with a more decisive, data-driven tone, as investors position ahead of U.S. labour-market signals and Fed communication that can meaningfully shape expectations into Friday’s payrolls. Overall market sense is cautiously constructive but tactically defensive, with FX and rates sensitive to confirmation that disinflation and labour cooling remain on track. Liquidity has largely normalized after the holiday period, increasing the likelihood of cleaner directional reactions to macro surprises.
In the United States, attention centres on ADP Employment Change and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. ADP will be read as a directional cross-check ahead of NFP rather than a precise predictor, while the minutes will be scrutinized for the degree of confidence among policymakers that inflation risks are receding and whether the bar for easing in 2026 is lowering. A dovish read-through could pressure the USD and support risk assets; any emphasis on data dependence or residual inflation risks may cap rate-cut expectations.
Across Asia–Pacific, Australia’s CPI is the key regional catalyst, with implications for RBA pricing and AUD sensitivity. In Europe, retail- and confidence-related indicators provide incremental colour on demand conditions, though EUR is expected to remain largely reactive to U.S. yields and Fed messaging. Corporate catalysts remain limited, leaving macro data and policy communication as the dominant drivers for the session.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 08:30 | 🔴 Red News | Australia | CPI (q/q) | Inflation pulse; RBA expectations and AUD sensitivity |
| 16:00 | 🔴 Red News | Eurozone | Retail Sales (m/m) | Consumption signal; EUR rates and sentiment |
| 20:15 | 🔴 Red News | United States | ADP Employment Change | Labour demand cross-check ahead of NFP |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Policy tone; USD and front-end yields impact |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Fed communication / positioning ahead of NFP | Can amplify FX and rates moves |
Snapshot – End 02.01.2026
G7 FX
- DXY: 98.595 (+0.24%)
- GBP/USD: 1.35019 (+0.01%)
- EUR/USD: 1.16891 (0.00%)
- USD/JPY: 156.628 (+0.02%)
- USD/CHF: 0.79562 (−0.01%)
- EUR/GBP: 0.86571 (0.00%)
- USD/CAD: 1.38131 (−0.01%)
- AUD/USD: 0.67410 (+0.04%)
- NZD/USD: 0.57864 (+0.03%)
Metals
- Gold: 4,499.000 (+0.09%)
- Silver: 81.3700 (+0.25%)
- Copper: 6.09068 (+0.08%)
Global Indices
- S&P 500: 6,953.77 (+0.03%)
- EURO STOXX 50: 5,945.06 (0.00%)
- Dow Jones: 49,544.15 (+0.03%)
- VIX: 16.124 (−0.46%)
- CAC 40: 8,237.44 (+0.32%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,639.71 (+0.94%)
Crypto Markets
- BTC/USD: 93,401 (−0.51%)
- ETH/USD: 3,277.7 (+1.63%)
- SOL/USD: 140.30 (+1.76%)
- OP/USD: 0.329 (−0.30%)
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
