Starting with softness ease, ending with shake and aftershock by Treasury yield.
Data:
🟦 Global Rates / Yields
- United States (Treasuries): 2Y 3.471% (+1.7bp) | 10Y 4.147% (+1.9bp); risk sentiment improved, but rates stayed firm into key early-January data (jobs/services).
- United Kingdom (Gilts): UK 10Y 4.541% (jumped versus prior close 474%), reflecting persistent long-end sensitivity.
- Australia (ACGBs): AU 10Y 4.807% (up from 760%), tracking global duration pressure.
- Canada (GoC): CA 10Y 3.472% (+3.7bp) alongside a softer CAD and weak domestic demand signals.
- Germany (Bunds): DE 10Y ~2.85%–2.87% in thin holiday trade, near recent highs as fiscal issuance/stimulus expectations stay in focus.
- Japan (JGBs): JP 10Y 2.072% (still near multi-decade highs), keeping global term-premia narrative alive.
🟩 Equities — Major Index Moves
- United States (02 Jan close): Dow +0.66% to 48,382.39 | S&P 500 (US500) +0.19% to 6,858.47 | Nasdaq -0.03% to 23,235.63 — rotation into industrials/semis offset mega-cap tech softness.
- Japan: Nikkei 225: no trading (holiday closure).
- Europe: Europe opened/ran firm early in the session with broad support; UK/Europe risk tone improved into the first session of 2026 (headline-driven, holiday liquidity). (Index-level moves varied by venue/time; see sources.)
- France / Eurozone / Germany (reference levels): CAC 40 / Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50) / DAX were directionally supported by the broader European risk-on tone to start 2026 (holiday-thin conditions).
🟨 Macro / Economic Calendar
- S. labor (latest): Initial jobless claims 199k (latest reported), reinforcing “soft-landing” labor resilience and keeping rates supported.
- Canada activity (latest): S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI 48.6 (11th month in contraction), pressuring CAD sentiment.
- Wall Street started 2026 mixed but steadier: Dow/S&P rebounded while Nasdaq lagged; semis and industrials led, mega-cap tech weighed on the tape.
- Policy risk back in focus: investors continued to debate the Fed’s path and independence amid political headline risk and leadership-transition speculation.
- Tariff sensitivity showed up immediately: reports of tariff delays supported select U.S. retailers (notably furniture names), highlighting trade-policy beta into 2026.
- FX theme: the S. dollar’s 2025 drop (-9.4%) left markets sensitive to rate-differential shifts and fiscal/trade headlines.
- Canada spotlight: weak manufacturing momentum and lower oil added pressure; USD/CAD ~1.374 area on the day.
- Commodities / crypto: oil stayed heavy near ~$57/bbl; Bitcoin approached ~$90,000 as risk appetite stabilized; gold held firm with hedging demand lingering.
Companies.
+) Mega-cap U.S. technology companies led early-year inflows, as investors rotated back into high-quality names with strong balance sheets and earnings visibility for 2026.
+) Nvidia and other AI-linked semiconductor stocks outperformed, supported by renewed expectations of accelerated AI infrastructure spending in the first half of 2026.
+) Apple and Microsoft traded higher, reflecting defensive growth positioning amid limited macro uncertainty in the first trading session of the year.
+) Several U.S. banks opened the year steady to slightly higher, as stable Treasury yields and expectations of a gradual easing cycle supported sentiment toward net interest margins.
+) Energy majors underperformed, with crude prices remaining soft and no new operational or geopolitical catalysts emerging at the start of the year.
+) Consumer discretionary companies showed mixed performance, with e-commerce and travel-related names outperforming traditional retail.
+) Automakers and EV-related stocks traded unevenly, as investors reassessed demand expectations and subsidy policies heading into 2026.
+) Healthcare and biotechnology stocks saw selective gains, driven by follow-through from late-2025 pipeline updates rather than fresh regulatory announcements.
+) No major U.S. M&A transactions were announced, consistent with the early-January lull before deal activity resumes later in the month.
+) Corporate guidance updates were limited, as most companies remained in pre-earnings quiet periods ahead of the January reporting season.
+) Share repurchase activity resumed gradually, particularly among large-cap technology and consumer companies following year-end blackout periods.
+) European corporates reopened with light news flow, as many firms were still emerging from holiday shutdowns.
+) Japanese exporters benefited from equity inflows, supported by currency dynamics and global growth expectations.
+) Chinese listed companies traded cautiously, with investors awaiting clearer policy signals before rebuilding positions.
+) Overall, company-level price action was driven more by allocation and positioning, rather than new fundamental disclosures.
** Top 5 Gainers
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | ~$2.1T | Medium | +3.1% | AI & semiconductor rally |
| Apple (AAPL) | ~$3.1T | Medium | +1.9% | Mega-cap inflows |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | ~$3.0T | Medium | +1.7% | Cloud visibility |
| Amazon (AMZN) | ~$1.8T | Medium | +2.2% | Consumer demand outlook |
| Meta Platforms (META) | ~$1.3T | Medium | +1.6% | Advertising momentum |
** Top 5 Loser
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | ~$465B | Medium | −1.3% | Energy sector weakness |
| Chevron (CVX) | ~$285B | Medium | −1.1% | Crude pressure |
| Duke Energy (DUK) | ~$74B | Medium | −0.9% | Defensive lag |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | ~$355B | Medium | −0.6% | Rotation out of staples |
| Coca-Cola (KO) | ~$260B | Medium | −0.5% | Risk-on shift |
General
Currency Overview firms modestly as fresh-year positioning replaces year-end distortions G10 FX opened the first trading sessions of 2026 with slightly improved liquidity, allowing markets to unwind defensive year-end positioning. The U.S. dollar softened marginally as funding pressures eased, while FX volatility remained contained, reflecting early-year reallocation rather than a decisive macro repricing.
EUR edges higher as policy asymmetry with the Fed remains supportive The euro found modest support as investors continued to price a relatively slower and shallower ECB easing path compared with the Fed. With Eurozone data flow light, EUR strength was driven primarily by relative rate expectations and early-year portfolio rebalancing rather than growth optimism.
GBP stabilizes as January flows offset lingering domestic uncertainty Sterling traded steadily as fresh inflows at the start of the year balanced persistent concerns over the UK’s weak growth outlook. In the absence of new BOE signals, GBP remained closely tied to global yield dynamics and broader FX sentiment.
USD drifts lower as defensive demand fades and easing expectations linger The Dollar Index eased as safe-haven and funding demand receded following the calendar turn. Markets maintained expectations for a gradual, data-dependent Fed easing cycle, limiting downside momentum but keeping the dollar on a softer footing relative to peers.
JPY weakens modestly as carry dynamics regain traction The yen softened as stable U.S. yields and subdued volatility encouraged renewed carry positioning at the start of the year. With no fresh BOJ communication, JPY price action remained driven by global rate differentials rather than domestic policy signals.
Gold consolidates as safe-haven demand moderates in early-year trade Gold prices traded sideways as defensive flows eased alongside calmer risk sentiment. Contained real yields continued to provide underlying support, but the lack of fresh macro shocks limited upside momentum.
Oil firms slightly as risk sentiment improves, though demand concerns persist Brent and WTI edged higher as early-year positioning supported risk assets, but gains were capped by ongoing uncertainty over global demand. Energy markets continued to signal a cautious inflation outlook despite supply discipline.
Equity Flow shows tentative re-engagement led by quality exposure Equity flows pointed to selective re-risking at the start of the year, with investors favoring large-cap quality and balance-sheet strength. The pattern suggested cautious optimism rather than conviction on a near-term growth acceleration.
Geopolitical focus returns to U.S.–China strategic competition Early-year attention refocused on U.S.–China relations, particularly around trade, technology, and supply-chain policy. While no immediate escalation was priced, the issue continued to act as a structural constraint on global risk sentiment.
Corporate narratives emphasize discipline as firms set expectations for 2026 Corporate communication early in the year highlighted cost control, cautious demand assumptions, and capital discipline. Investor response reinforced sensitivity to earnings visibility and cash-flow resilience amid an uneven growth backdrop.
Systemic theme highlights normalization from year-end to early-year allocation Markets entered 2026 with a transition from year-end distortions toward more normalized liquidity and allocation decisions. While financial conditions remained supportive, investors continued to distinguish between stabilization and a convincing growth recovery.
Upcoming News
Markets enter the first full trading week of 2026 with a measured, data-led re-engagement, as liquidity normalizes and investors reassess positioning after the holiday reset. Overall market sense is cautiously constructive, with risk appetite supported by expectations of gradual disinflation and policy easing later in the year, but tempered by uncertainty around early-Q1 growth momentum. FX and rates are likely to respond more cleanly to macro surprises than during year-end, while equities may see selective inflows tied to growth confirmation rather than broad beta.
In the United States, attention turns to services-sector activity and labour-market signals ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Markets will look for confirmation that services demand remains resilient even as manufacturing stabilizes, a combination consistent with a soft-landing narrative. Any downside surprise could revive defensive USD positioning, while strength would help cap front-end yield declines. In Europe, final PMI readings and sentiment indicators will refine views on whether late-2025 weakness is bottoming out, with EUR sensitivity highest to relative growth differentials versus the U.S.
Across Asia–Pacific, the focus is on Japan’s services PMI and household spending data, which provide insight into domestic demand and the BoJ’s normalization debate. China remains headline-driven, with policy guidance and liquidity operations shaping sentiment more than scheduled data. Corporate catalysts remain light, leaving macro data and positioning dynamics as the dominant drivers for the session.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:30 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Household Spending (y/y) | Domestic demand signal; BoJ policy expectations |
| 08:45 | 🔴 Red News | China | Caixin Services PMI (Dec) | Services momentum; CNH & Asia risk sentiment |
| 15:55 | 🔴 Red News | Germany | Services PMI (Final, Dec) | Confirms Eurozone demand trends |
| 16:00 | 🔴 Red News | Eurozone | Services PMI (Final, Dec) | ECB growth narrative validation |
| 16:30 | 🔴 Red News | United Kingdom | Services PMI (Final, Dec) | GBP sensitivity via growth expectations |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | ISM Services PMI (Dec) | Primary activity gauge; USD & rates impact |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Early-year positioning / policy headlines | Liquidity normalization may amplify moves |
Snapshot – End 02.01.2026
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed near 98.43 (+0.16%), firming modestly as the market digested the first trading session of 2026 with light liquidity and limited macro catalysts. FX price action remained selective, with commodity currencies outperforming while EUR stayed under mild pressure.
- EUR/USD: 1719 (–0.17%) — euro softened amid thin flows and lingering concerns over Eurozone growth momentum.
- GBP/USD: 3457 (+0.01%) — sterling held steady, supported by relatively resilient UK data expectations.
- USD/JPY: 81 (–0.03%) — yen marginally firmer as U.S. yields stabilized.
- USD/CHF: 7923 (–0.05%) — CHF slightly stronger on low-risk appetite.
- USD/CAD: 3732 (+0.05%) — CAD lagged despite firmer risk sentiment, reflecting muted oil impact.
- AUD/USD: 6695 (+0.32%), NZD/USD: 0.5769 (+0.23%) — commodity FX outperformed on improved risk tone.
Metals
Metals softened modestly across the board.
- Gold (XAU/USD): 4,331.6 (+0.32%) — continued to hold elevated levels, supported by medium-term hedging demand.
- Silver (XAG/USD): 82 (+1.70%) — outperformed sharply, driven by speculative and industrial demand.
- Copper: 72 (+0.08%) — marginally higher, reflecting cautious optimism on global activity.
Global Indices
Equities traded mixed but constructive, with U.S. tech leading gains and volatility easing further.
- S&P 500: 6,861.1 (+0.10%)
- Euro Stoxx 50: 5,868.0 (+0.96%)
- Dow Jones: 48,370.2 (+0.52%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,206.2 (–0.17%)
- VIX: 08 (–2.37%) — volatility compressed further
Crypto Markets
- BTC/USD: 89,978 (+0.03%) — range-bound near the 90k level.
- ETH/USD: 3,126 (+0.07%) — tracked BTC with subdued momentum.
- SOL/USD: 3 (+0.03%) — steady after recent volatility.
- OP/USD: 306 (+0.33%) — mild recovery
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
