2 days left, but the Commodity was dancing so crazy ever.
Data:
🟦 Global Rates / Yields
- United States (Treasuries): Yields firmed modestly as liquidity returned after the Christmas break. 2Y ~3.50–3.58% | 5Y ~3.88–3.96% | 10Y ~4.18–4.25% | 30Y ~4.85–4.92%. Curve dynamics continue to reflect expectations for Fed easing only from late-2026, with term premia elevated.
- United Kingdom (Gilts): 10Y ~4.48–4.56%, slightly higher as markets reopened, with fiscal outlook and supply pressures keeping long-end yields sticky.
- Australia (ACGBs): 10Y ~4.75–4.83%, edging higher, tracking global long-end moves amid resilient domestic growth signals.
- Canada (GoC): 10Y ~3.45–3.55%, firming in line with U.S. Treasuries as inflation risks remain balanced.
- Other key markets:
- Germany 10Y Bund ~2.88–2.95%, modestly higher as defensive demand faded.
- Japan 10Y JGB ~2.02–2.07%, holding near multi-decade highs amid ongoing BoJ normalization expectations.
🟩 Equities — Major Index Moves
United States:
- Nasdaq: +0.6–0.9%, supported by selective buying in mega-cap technology and AI-related names.
- S&P 500 (US500): +0.4–0.6%, consolidating near record levels as risk appetite cautiously improved.
- Dow Jones: +0.2–0.4%, gains in industrials and financials offsetting defensive laggards.
Asia + Europe:
- Nikkei 225: -0.3–0.6%, underperformed as a firmer yen and elevated domestic yields weighed on exporters.
- CAC 40: +0.2–0.4%, supported by luxury and healthcare.
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): +0.2–0.3%, modest gains as markets reopened.
- DAX (GER40): ~flat to +0.2%, exporters lagging amid FX headwinds.
🟨 Macro / Economic Calendar
- Liquidity normalization post-holiday allowed rates and equities to reprice modestly, though volumes remain below average.
- Central-bank divergence remained dominant, with Fed patience contrasted against BoJ normalization risks and ECB caution.
- Equity leadership stayed narrow, concentrated in U.S. mega-cap growth and high cash-flow sectors.
- AI theme regained traction, though investors remained selective amid valuation concerns.
- Commodities mixed: Oil stabilized near recent lows on oversupply concerns; gold held firm as a hedge against policy uncertainty.
- FX backdrop steady: S. dollar broadly stable; yen strength continued to cap Japanese equity upside
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Companies.
+) Mega-cap technology stocks remained in focus, as continued year-end portfolio rebalancing favored names with strong balance sheets and earnings visibility going into 2026.
+) Nvidia and other semiconductor leaders traded firmer, supported by renewed positioning around AI infrastructure spending expected to accelerate in early 2026.
+) Apple and Microsoft saw steady inflows, reflecting defensive growth positioning amid limited macro catalysts.
+) Several U.S. energy majors underperformed, as crude prices softened and investors reduced exposure to cyclicals ahead of year-end book-closing.
+) Travel and leisure companies held up well, supported by strong holiday demand indicators and resilient forward booking trends.
+) Retail and e-commerce names traded mixed, with online platforms outperforming traditional brick-and-mortar retailers.
+) Financial stocks saw limited movement, as stable Treasury yields and the absence of policy signals constrained sector catalysts.
** Top 5 Gainers (23Dec)
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | ~$2.0T | Medium | +1.6% | AI positioning |
| Apple (AAPL) | ~$3.0T | Medium | +1.1% | Mega‑cap inflows |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | ~$2.9T | Medium | +0.9% | Cloud stability |
| Amazon (AMZN) | ~$1.7T | Medium | +1.3% | Holiday demand |
| Meta Platforms (META) | ~$1.2T | Medium | +1.0% | Ad momentum |
** Top 5 Loser (23Dec)
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | ~$470B | Medium | −1.9% | Oil weakness |
| Chevron (CVX) | ~$290B | Medium | −1.6% | Energy sell‑off |
| ConocoPhillips (COP) | ~$135B | Medium | −1.7% | Crude pressure |
| Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | ~$60B | Medium | −1.5% | Copper prices |
| Duke Energy (DUK) | ~$75B | Medium | −1.2% | Utilities lag |
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General
Currency Overview firms modestly as year-end positioning gives way to light re-engagement G10 FX traded with slightly improved liquidity as markets moved past the Christmas lull, prompting modest repositioning rather than a full directional shift. The U.S. dollar was marginally firmer on funding and balance-sheet normalization, while overall volatility remained contained, underscoring a flow-driven session rather than a macro repricing.
EUR trades narrowly as stable ECB expectations anchor relative value The euro moved within a tight range as investors balanced mild USD strength against unchanged ECB guidance. With Eurozone data flow light and policy expectations steady, EUR price action continued to reflect relative rate stability and portfolio flows rather than growth re-assessment.
GBP stabilizes as year-end flows offset lingering domestic uncertainty Sterling steadied after recent softness, supported by normalization of flows as markets reopened more fully. UK-specific growth and fiscal concerns remained a constraint, keeping GBP responsive to global yield dynamics rather than domestic catalysts.
USD edges higher on funding demand as markets prepare for the new year The Dollar Index ticked higher as funding considerations and balance-sheet adjustments supported the currency into month-end. The move was not associated with a change in Fed expectations, which remain centered on a gradual and data-dependent easing path.
JPY weakens slightly as carry dynamics reassert with firmer yields The yen softened modestly as U.S. yields edged higher and volatility stayed low, encouraging selective carry positioning. Absent fresh BOJ signals, JPY remained primarily driven by global rate movements and cross-border flows.
Gold consolidates as defensive demand eases marginally Gold prices traded sideways to slightly lower as year-end defensive positioning faded and real yields stabilized. The metal remained supported at elevated levels, but lacked a catalyst for renewed upside in calmer conditions.
Oil edges higher as risk sentiment improves modestly, demand outlook unchanged Brent and WTI posted small gains as liquidity improved and risk sentiment stabilized, though upside remained capped by persistent uncertainty over global demand. Energy markets continued to signal limited inflationary pressure at current price levels.
Equity Flow shows tentative re-engagement led by quality exposure Equity flows pointed to cautious re-entry rather than broad risk accumulation, with investors favoring large-cap quality and rate-sensitive sectors. The pattern suggested preparation for January positioning rather than conviction on near-term growth acceleration.
Geopolitical narrative remains steady with no new escalation priced Key geopolitical themes—including U.S.–China strategic competition and ongoing regional conflicts—remained unchanged during the session. Markets treated these risks as background constraints rather than immediate volatility drivers.
Corporate-specific focus turns to guidance discipline ahead of 2026 Investor attention centered on company commentary around early-2026 demand visibility and cost control. Selective repricing reflected heightened sensitivity to earnings durability and balance-sheet strength as the new year approaches.
Upcoming News
Markets move into Tuesday in a deep year-end liquidity environment, with sentiment dominated by position squaring, balance-sheet constraints, and technical flows rather than fundamental conviction. Overall market sense remains range-bound and fragile, with FX and rates prone to outsized but short-lived moves on relatively modest data surprises. With only one full trading day left in the year, participants are largely focused on capital preservation and avoiding headline risk ahead of the calendar turn.
In the United States, attention turns to housing and confidence indicators, which will be interpreted as late-cycle confirmation signals rather than trend-defining data. Pending and home price data will help assess whether housing activity is stabilising into year-end, but any market reaction is likely to be muted unless the surprise is significant. The USD is expected to trade defensively, driven more by relative rate positioning than fresh macro inputs.
Across Europe, the calendar remains very light, keeping EUR movements tied to U.S. yield spillovers and cross-currency flows. In Asia–Pacific, Japan’s labour-market data provides incremental insight into domestic conditions, while China remains headline-driven amid year-end liquidity operations and policy messaging. Overall, macro relevance is secondary to liquidity dynamics and technical positioning.
Corporate catalysts remain negligible, leaving today’s session driven primarily by thin liquidity, positioning effects, and residual macro sensitivity.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:30 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Unemployment Rate | Labour-market slack; BoJ policy expectations and JPY sensitivity |
| 06:30 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Jobs-to-Applicants Ratio | Hiring conditions; confirms labour tightness or easing |
| 21:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index | Housing price momentum; USD and rates sensitivity |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Conference Board Consumer Confidence | Demand outlook; late-cycle sentiment signal |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Year-end flows / policy or geopolitical headlines | Thin liquidity may amplify moves |
Snapshot – Early Monday
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged slightly lower to 98.01 (–0.04%), with FX markets remaining subdued amid thin year-end liquidity and limited macro catalysts.
- EUR/USD: 1773 (+0.01%) — euro stable, consolidating recent gains.
- GBP/USD: 3508 (–0.01%) — sterling marginally softer, range-bound.
- USD/JPY: 07 (+0.03%) — yen weakened slightly as USD/JPY drifted higher.
- USD/CHF: 7889 (–0.03%) — CHF modestly firmer.
- EUR/GBP: 8716 (+0.04%) — mild euro outperformance versus GBP.
- USD/CAD: 3690 (+0.01%) — CAD slightly weaker despite firmer crude.
Metals
Metals softened modestly across the board.
- Gold (XAU/USD): 4,331.45 (–0.04%) — mild pullback after recent strength.
- Silver (XAG/USD): 71.78 (–0.48%) — underperformed gold.
- Copper: 5.5799 (–0.15%) — eased slightly amid cautious growth sentiment.
Global Indices (Not Working today)
Equities traded mixed but constructive, with U.S. tech leading gains and volatility easing further.
- S&P 500: 6,912.09 (–0.04%)
- Dow Jones: 48,514.45 (–0.01%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,525.56 (–0.46%)
- EU50: 5,758.15 (–0.05%)
- CAC 40: 8,112.03 (+0.10%)
- VIX: 57 (flat)
Analysis: Risk appetite improved modestly, driven primarily by tech strength. Falling volatility signaled continued complacency, though overall participation remained light.
Crypto Markets
Crypto assets saw mild stabilization, with selective strength in Ethereum while broader altcoins lagged.
- BTC/USD: 87,236 (–0.72%)
- ETH/USD: 2,940.7 (–0.26%)
- SOL/USD: 123.43 (–1.41%)
- OP/USD: 0.269 (–1.82%)
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
