Market Snapshot December 5th 2025

NFP is not going on Friday

Data:

– Global equities strengthened for a second consecutive session, as stabilising risk sentiment and firm expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week supported a broad market rebound. U.S. and European futures traded higher, reflecting improving confidence after early-week volatility.

– U.S. markets traded near record territory, with the S&P 500 edging up ~0.1%, the Nasdaq up ~0.2%, while the Dow slipped ~0.1%, as investors absorbed labour-data softness and positioned ahead of the December Fed decision. Rate-cut probability remained elevated, estimated around 85–90%.

– European equities extended gains, with the STOXX 600 +0.1% to 576.94, marking a third straight advance. Industrials rose ~0.8%, driven by upgrades to Schneider Electric and Siemens Energy. Improved risk appetite followed softer U.S. macro data and moderating global yields.

– European automakers surged, after the U.S. administration signaled a rollback of fuel-economy standards. This boosted internal-combustion vehicle prospects and lifted major names: Porsche +5%, Mercedes-Benz +4%, Volvo +4%, Renault +3.3%, Stellantis +2.7%.

– Japan led Asia’s gains, with the Nikkei 225 +2.2%, supported by a highly successful 30-year JGB auction — the strongest in more than six years — which eased fears of a disorderly bond sell-off. Robot-maker Fanuc surged nearly 12%, adding momentum to the index.

– Global bond markets stabilised, as the strong JGB auction pulled long-dated Japanese yields lower. U.S. Treasury yields were broadly steady to slightly higher, reflecting the balance between rate-cut expectations and broader fiscal concerns.

– FX markets were mixed:
• The U.S. dollar recovered modestly from a five-week low.
• The yen firmed on expectations the Bank of Japan may raise rates in December.
• The Australian dollar climbed, supported by firm household-spending data and a stronger trade balance.

– Gold and silver eased, with gold softening after its approach toward a multi-week high, as firmer real yields triggered some profit-taking. Meanwhile Brent crude edged up ~0.4%, stabilising around US$ 62–63/bbl amid persistent supply questions and demand uncertainty.

– Sector rotation accelerated, with investors shifting toward cyclicals: industrials and autos gained while defensives lagged. Stocks such as Philips declined on growth concerns, and spirits makers weakened following broker downgrades..

 

Companies.

+) Global equities traded mixed, with investors awaiting key U.S. labor data (JOLTS, ADP revisions, and NFP outlook) while continuing to price in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

+) U.S. markets opened softer, as Treasury yields stabilized after Wednesday’s decline; S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded near flat, reflecting caution ahead of major macro releases later in the week.

+) European equities weakened modestly, with the STOXX 600 slipping as energy and luxury stocks underperformed. Softer retail sentiment and weak auto-sector data pressured German and French indices.

+) In Asia, Japanese stocks rebounded, with both the Nikkei 225 and Topix advancing as volatility in the yen eased. Exporters recovered some ground after two days of heavy FX-driven losses.

+) Australian equities climbed, supported by gains in miners, utilities, and gold producers as precious-metal prices remained elevated and China-linked sentiment improved in early trading.

 

Company Highlights Key Metrics / Notes
Broadcom (AVGO) Strong semiconductor and infrastructure-software revenue; AI-related demand remained robust. EPS beat • Revenue ↑ YoY • AI segment strong
Dollar General (DG) Solid quarter driven by consumables demand; discretionary categories remained weak. EPS beat • Same-store sales ↑
Kroger (KR) Grocery demand remained resilient; margins stable despite promotional activity. EPS in line • Revenue ↑ modestly
Smith & Wesson (SWBI) Firearm sales improved on stronger retail demand and wholesale restocking. EPS beat • Revenue ↑ YoY
Campbell Soup (CPB) Packaged food demand steady; pricing supported margins. Revenue steady • EPS in line
Gamma Communications (GAMA) Cloud-networking growth supported performance; enterprise demand improving. Revenue ↑ • Margins steady
Signet Jewelers (SIG) Jewelry sales strengthened ahead of holiday season; digital channels outperformed. EPS beat • Holiday guide positive
Chewy (CHWY) Pet-care demand remained resilient; subscription auto-ship orders grew. Revenue ↑ YoY • Active customers ↑
Hormel Foods (HRL) Protein and branded-food categories stabilized; cost improvements supported margins. EPS in line • Revenue flat
PagerDuty (PD) Strong enterprise demand for digital-operations automation; ARR growth solid. EPS beat • ARR ↑ double-digit

 

General

Asian equities rally as JGB auction eases global bond-market stress

Asian markets rebounded strongly, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225, which jumped over 2% after a well-received 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction alleviated fears of further global yield spikes. The auction’s strong demand helped stabilize global fixed-income markets after weeks of BOJ-driven volatility.

U.S. and European equities steady as Fed-cut expectations anchor sentiment

U.S. markets closed near unchanged, balancing softer macro data with growing confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. In Europe, the STOXX 600 edged higher, supported by industrials, banks, and automakers as risk sentiment improved in line with stabilizing yields and calmer global markets.

Oil firms on renewed supply risks; commodities trade mixed

Brent crude rose moderately after Ukraine carried out strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, increasing perceived supply-risk premia and temporarily overshadowing weak macro demand signals. Broader commodities showed a mixed performance as investors weighed geopolitical tensions against soft global manufacturing readings.

Gold slips slightly amid profit-taking ahead of Fed decision

After a series of gains, gold edged lower as some investors took profit ahead of the December Fed meeting. Despite the dip, bullion remains elevated on macro uncertainty, softer real yields, and defensive positioning across global portfolios.

Structural wealth and bond-market themes emerge as inherited assets surge

A UBS report indicated that 2025 is on track to set a record year for global inherited wealth, underscoring persistent demand for wealth-preservation vehicles such as sovereign bonds. The strength of the JGB auction reinforced this trend, suggesting steady appetite for high-quality fixed-income assets amid ongoing uncertainty.

Mixed macro signals: U.S. labor market stays firm despite broader demand softness

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in more than three years, highlighting underlying labor-market resilience even as global demand indicators soften. This complicates the policy outlook as central banks weigh slowing growth against sticky labor-market strength.

 

Upcoming News

Friday’s session centres on a compact but high-impact data slate from Canada and the United States, with labour-market and inflation indicators expected to guide market positioning ahead of next week’s major central-bank meetings. Liquidity remains steady after the early-December data cycle, but sentiment is sensitive as investors await confirmation that global disinflation and labour-market cooling are progressing in line with expectations.

In Canada, the release of Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate will help clarify whether the recent softening trend is broadening. A negative employment print, combined with a rise in unemployment, would reinforce expectations that the Bank of Canada may need to pivot earlier in 2026 to support domestic demand. CAD volatility may pick up sharply around the release, given its proximity to U.S. data later tonight.

In the United States, the market’s attention is firmly on the Core PCE Price Index (m/m) — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation. With headline and core inflation moderating through Q4, a stable or softer PCE print would strengthen expectations of a dovish tone at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Alongside PCE, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations surveys will offer crucial insight into household confidence and medium-term price dynamics. Given the Fed’s sensitivity to inflation psychology, the sentiment and expectations components may carry more weight than usual.

Across Europe, attention turns to Germany’s Factory Orders (Oct) and the U.K. Construction PMI (Nov), both offering insight into the region’s weak Q4 growth momentum. With Eurozone inflation retreating faster than expected, these cyclical activity readings will help shape expectations for how firmly the ECB will signal a mid-2026 rate-cut cycle. The euro trades cautiously ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, supported by stable credit conditions but constrained by sluggish industrial output.

In the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s Labour Cash Earnings (Oct) and Leading Index (Oct) add clarity to the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Wage growth remains one of the most critical determinants of whether the BoJ can begin normalizing its ultra-loose stance in 2026. Meanwhile, Australia and China enter the session with relatively quiet calendars, leaving sentiment driven by global macro signals and by ongoing signs of stabilizing Chinese credit conditions.

 

Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact
20:30 Canada Employment Change -1.5K 66.6K 🔴 High
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate 7.0% 6.9% 🔴 High
22:00 United States Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2% 🔴 High
22:00 United States Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 52.0 51.0 🔴 High
22:00 United States Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations — 4.5% 🔴 High

 

Snapshot: G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)

G7 FX

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded slightly firmer at 99.07 (+0.20%), supported by mild safe-haven flows as markets reassessed global growth risks. Major currencies saw tight intraday ranges.

Analysis: FX markets remain range-bound with DXY stabilizing. Commodity FX faced mild pressure from weaker oil, while European currencies traded defensively ahead of U.S. job data.

 

Metals

Gold and silver consolidated following recent gains, while copper eased.

Analysis: Metals entered a consolidation phase. Gold remains supported by declining real yields, silver is adjusting after a strong run, and copper reacts to weaker Chinese macro signals.

 

Global Indices

Equities were mixed as investors reassessed valuations and upcoming U.S. macro catalysts.

Analysis: Global equities moved sideways with cautious sentiment. Tech shares cooled, Europe traded firmer, and VIX remained anchored at low levels, signaling a stable risk backdrop despite macro uncertainty.

 

Crypto Markets

Crypto traded mostly lower with profit-taking across BTC and leading altcoins.

Analysis: Crypto weakness extended as liquidity rotated out of high-beta assets. Bitcoin remains in a consolidation zone above 90k, while altcoins underperformed sharply.

 

Macro Data Snapshot

United States

Japan

 

This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen

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