38 days of shutdown.?
Data
– Global equities steadied after a volatile week: the STOXX 600 +0.3 %, FTSE 100 +0.4 %, and S&P 500 −1.12 %, as markets digested mixed earnings and a possible delay in new U.S. tariffs.
– U.S. dollar fell 1.3 %, posting its sharpest one-day decline in a month after White House officials signaled Donald Trump may postpone tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico.
– Euro rebounded to 1.093 USD, its highest in three weeks, while the Japanese yen strengthened to ¥153.5 / USD as risk sentiment improved modestly.
– Oil extended losses: Brent −1.6 % to US$ 63.38 / bbl, WTI −1.7 % to US$ 59.43 / bbl, as demand concerns outweighed OPEC+’s output freeze and inventory drawdowns in the U.S. Gulf.
– Gold stabilized around US$ 3 958 / oz, edging +0.4 %, supported by the weaker dollar and lingering uncertainty over the Fed’s next move.
– Tech stocks underperformed: the Nasdaq −1.9 %, dragged down by declines in Apple (−2.2 %) and NVIDIA (−3.1 %) amid ongoing profit-taking in AI-related names.
– Hedge funds’ digital-asset exposure reached an all-time high, with 55 % of global hedge funds now invested in crypto, averaging a 7 % portfolio allocation (~US$ 350 billion industry-wide exposure).
– Bond markets turned defensive: U.S. 10-year yield rose modestly to 4.09 %, German Bunds to 2.61 %, while Japan’s 10-year JGB held at 0.93 %.
– Morgan Stanley’s strategist note warned that a “technical correction” could deepen into a 10–12 % drawdown if bond yields keep climbing into year-end.
– Market pricing suggests less than a 30 % probability of a Fed rate cut in December, with traders shifting focus to Q1 2026 policy guidance.
– China’s financial regulators (CSRC & PBoC) confirmed new incentives to encourage foreign institutions to expand RMB-denominated bond holdings as part of the yuan internationalization plan.
– European gas prices slipped 3 % to €29 / MWh as warmer weather and storage above 97 % eased winter-supply concerns.
– Copper futures fell 0.9 % to US$ 9 320 / ton on weak Chinese industrial data and cautious global growth outlook.
– Corporate highlight: Qualcomm fell 4.8 % after reporting Q3 revenue of US$ 10.3 billion (−7 % YoY), citing slower smartphone demand and export license delays.
– Crypto market turnover dropped −8 % week-on-week as Bitcoin hovered near US$ 105 600, reflecting investor rotation back into equities and bonds.
– Global sentiment improved modestly late in session after reports that Trump’s tariff delay could be extended to February 2026, easing near-term trade tension fears.
Companies.
+) Global equities extended losses for a second day as risk-off sentiment deepened following weak U.S. labor data and renewed valuation pressure in AI and semiconductor sectors. The S&P 500 fell –1.1%, the Nasdaq Composite –1.9%, and the Dow Jones –0.6%, dragged by tech-heavy names.
+) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled –2.4%, led by Qualcomm (–3.6%), AMD (–2.1%), and ASML (–2.8%), after cautious chip demand outlooks.
+) The Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.0%, in a narrow 5–4 vote, citing mixed growth and inflation signals. The British pound strengthened +0.6% to $1.313, while gilt yields slipped modestly.
+) U.S. labor conditions weakened: job-cut announcements surged 183% MoM, the highest since 2002, as the prolonged government shutdown disrupted data continuity and business confidence.
+) Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year yield down to 4.09%, while the U.S. Dollar Index softened slightly to 99.7, as investors sought safe-haven assets.
+) Gold climbed above US$ 4,000/oz, its highest in three weeks, while Brent crude edged down to US$ 65.2/bbl amid concerns of weakening global demand.
+) In Asia, sentiment was mixed: Japan’s Nikkei 225 –0.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng –0.9%, while India’s Sensex +0.5% on strong earnings and inclusion optimism in MSCI rebalancing.
+) European equities were broadly weaker: the STOXX 600 –0.7%, weighed down by tech and industrials, while energy stocks offered partial support.
+) Volatility remained elevated: the VIX Index rose to 19.6, reflecting continued hedging demand through index options and futures.
+) Market participants turned defensive ahead of next week’s U.S. CPI release and further central-bank speeches expected to shape the rate-cut outlook for early 2026.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Snap Inc. (SNAP) | Surprised markets with Q3 revenue growth and a new AI partnership with Perplexity AI, sparking a +18% pre-market surge. | Revenue: US$ 1.50 bn (+8% YoY). Daily Active Users: 477 m (+10%). ARPU: US$ 3.16 (above est). |
| DoorDash Inc. (DASH) | Reported strong order growth but guided lower margins for Q4; shares fell –10%. | Revenue: US$ 3.45 bn (+21% YoY). Adj. EBITDA: US$ 710–810 m (below est). Gross Order Value: US$ 25.1 bn (+18%). |
| Bumble Inc. (BMBL) | Reported declining user base and weaker guidance; shares plunged –25% post-earnings. | Revenue: US$ 246 m (–10% YoY). EPS: US$ 0.33 (vs 0.35 est). Paying Users: 3.57 m (–16%). |
| Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) | Delivered mixed results as strong GTA Online engagement offset weaker mobile performance. | Revenue: US$ 1.55 bn (vs 1.50 est). EPS: US$ 1.21 (vs 1.18 est). FY26 outlook: stable. |
| Monster Beverage (MNST) | Reported record net sales amid strong U.S. energy drink demand; margins improved sequentially. | Revenue: US$ 2.06 bn (+11% YoY). EPS: US$ 0.45 (vs 0.43 est). Gross Margin: 53.7%. |
| EOG Resources (EOG) | Slight earnings miss as natural-gas prices declined, but production volumes remained stable. | Revenue: US$ 6.23 bn (–4% YoY). EPS: US$ 2.80 (vs 2.85 est). |
| Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) | Beat expectations as higher gold prices boosted revenue; guided stronger H1 2026 outlook. | Revenue: US$ 296 m (+9% YoY). EPS: US$ 0.36 (vs 0.34 est). Operating Margin: 42%. |
General
Global equities extend losses as tech-led correction deepens
Global stocks continued to slide as the AI-driven tech correction spread across markets, with the Nasdaq Composite down 1.9% and the S&P 500 off 1.1%. Asian markets followed suit, led by declines in Japan and South Korea, as investors reassessed stretched valuations and rising policy uncertainty amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Traders also cited weak private-sector labor data as evidence of a slowing recovery in the U.S. economy.
Oil retreats amid lingering oversupply concerns and weak demand
Brent crude slipped below USD 63.4 per barrel, weighed by soft refinery utilization in the U.S. and weaker consumption trends across Asia. Despite OPEC+’s recent pause in production hikes, traders expect the global oil surplus to persist into early 2026. Market participants noted that the muted demand outlook is now offsetting geopolitical risks and supply disruptions.
Gold firms as dollar softens on shutdown drag and data uncertainty
Spot gold edged higher to USD 3,996/oz as the U.S. dollar eased from recent highs, pressured by concerns that the prolonged government shutdown could slow economic activity. The safe-haven bid for gold strengthened modestly, with analysts noting that “bullion remains resilient in the face of tightening financial conditions.”
Dollar stabilizes near four-month highs as Fed-cut odds diminish
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 99.5, supported by reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut this year. The yen and Swiss franc gained modestly on risk aversion, while emerging-market currencies came under pressure. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. jobs and inflation data releases.
Analysts flag waning global easing cycle and portfolio rotation
Major investment banks, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, warned that the global rate-cut cycle may have peaked, prompting institutional investors to reassess portfolio allocations. Market flows have shifted away from highly leveraged positions in growth sectors toward more defensive and diversified exposures, reflecting rising concern over asset concentration risk.
BillionToOne surges 67% in Nasdaq debut despite market volatility
In a rare bright spot, BillionToOne Inc., a genetic diagnostics firm, soared 67% on its first day of trading, giving it a USD 4.4 billion valuation. The blockbuster IPO underscored the resilience of venture-backed listings even amid tightening market liquidity and broader equity weakness.
Upcoming News
Global markets head into the final trading day of the week on a cautiously optimistic tone as investors digest multiple central-bank decisions and position ahead of critical North American labour-market data. After the Bank of England reaffirmed its policy hold but hinted at a possible rate cut in early 2026, attention now turns to Canada’s October employment report, the last major data release of the week. Economists expect a moderate increase in job creation, though any sign of labour-market softness could reinforce the Bank of Canada’s dovish bias and weigh on the Canadian dollar. The report will also serve as a barometer for the post-Fed easing environment across North America, where growth resilience remains in question.
In the United States, sentiment continues to stabilise following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, with investors parsing secondary indicators such as University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation-expectation surveys for clues about how households perceive the Fed’s policy shift. Given the limited availability of official macro data amid the government shutdown, these private-sector surveys carry heightened influence and could shape near-term yield and FX dynamics.
Across Europe, bond markets remain steady after a week dominated by central-bank guidance, while the euro has firmed modestly on expectations that the European Central Bank will remain cautious about cutting rates too soon. In the Asia-Pacific, markets are mixed as traders weigh improving U.S.–China trade sentiment against concerns about slowing export momentum in the region. Commodities, particularly oil and gold, continue to benefit from softer yields and a weaker dollar, reflecting the broader shift toward a more accommodative global monetary setting.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Labour-Market Report (Oct) | 🔴 High — final major data point of the week; key for BoC rate outlook |
| 🇺🇸 United States | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim Nov) | 🔴 High — first post-Fed reading on household confidence |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Inflation Expectations (1-yr / 5-yr) | 🟠 Medium–High — will test market conviction on Fed dovishness |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | ECB Policy Speech – Lagarde | 🔴 High — potential clarification of mid-2026 easing outlook |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Leading Economic Index (Sep) | 🟠 Medium — provides forward view on domestic growth momentum |
| 🌍 Global | OPEC+ Market Update / Energy Output Outlook | 🟠 Medium — key driver for crude and inflation sentiment |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from the 100.0 level to around 99.2, marking its first notable pullback in two weeks as optimism surrounding trade and tariff policy improved global sentiment. The yen and franc weakened slightly after strong safe-haven demand earlier in the week.
- EUR/USD: rebounded to 158, supported by broad dollar softness.
- GBP/USD: climbed to 313, aided by the Bank of England’s steady policy and modest post-budget optimism.
- USD/JPY: rose marginally to 1, reflecting fading safe-haven flows and stable U.S. yields.
- AUD/USD: firmed to 657, boosted by easing risk sentiment and higher commodity prices.
- USD/CHF: recovered to 865, tracking the broader dollar rebound.
Analysis:
The dollar’s correction came amid improved trade tone after reports of delayed U.S. tariff enforcement. However, market participants remain cautious as U.S. economic data remains limited under the ongoing government shutdown. Major pairs are likely to consolidate ahead of U.S. inflation updates next week.
Metals
Precious metals were mixed as the dollar eased and speculative positioning in base metals rose.
- Gold: +0.5 % → US$ 3,990/oz, lifted by softer dollar and ongoing fiscal uncertainty.
- Silver: +0.7 % → US$ 47.4/oz, tracking gold’s rise.
- Copper: steady → US$ 10,950/ton, supported by supply concerns despite weak manufacturing sentiment.
- Aluminium: +1.2 % → US$ 2,580/ton, as funds extended record long positions amid tightening global inventories.
Analysis:
Gold extended gains as investors maintained hedge exposure despite improved sentiment. Industrial metals stabilized, led by aluminium strength as supply constraints and speculative inflows persisted. The divergence between safe-haven and growth-sensitive metals remains notable.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Equities traded mixed as investors digested tariff news and cautious Fed commentary.
- S&P 500: –0.9 % → 6,690, weighed by tech and energy weakness.
- Nasdaq 100: –1.5 % → 22,150, extending declines in semiconductor and AI-linked names.
- Dow Jones: –0.6 % → 45,670, dragged by industrials.
- Nikkei 225: +0.8 % → 49,850, rebounding on trade optimism and foreign inflows.
- FTSE 100: +0.4 % → 9,610, helped by gains in energy and financials.
Analysis:
Markets stabilized after the prior session’s sharp sell-off, with selective bargain-hunting emerging in Asia and Europe. U.S. indices continued to consolidate amid concerns over stretched valuations and earnings sensitivity. The mixed tone suggests sentiment remains fragile despite temporary relief from tariff headlines.
Crypto Markets
Digital assets rebounded modestly, tracking improved risk sentiment and dollar weakness.
- Bitcoin (BTC): +2.3 % → US$ 109,000, recovering above the key $100k level.
- Ethereum (ETH): +3.1 % → US$ 3,550, aided by reduced liquidations and steady staking inflows.
- Altcoins: broader gains of 2–5 %, lifting total crypto market capitalization back to US$ 3.35 trillion.
Analysis:
Crypto markets saw a relief rebound as short covering and renewed ETF inflows supported stabilization. While macro headwinds persist, improved global risk appetite and a softer dollar provided temporary upside. Sustainability of this recovery hinges on whether broader financial volatility eases into mid-November.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
