Liquidation everywhere, watch out!
Data
– Wall Street caution builds: CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warned that global equities could face a 10–15 % correction, citing overextended valuations, policy uncertainty, and a lack of market breadth following the AI-led rally.
– Global equities pulled back: Asian and European markets declined amid profit-taking. STOXX 600 −1.4 % to 564.26, lowest in two weeks; U.S. futures fell (S&P 500 −1.09 %, Nasdaq 100 −1.37 %) as the dollar strengthened.
– Gold slipped 1.5 % to ~US$ 3 940 / oz, pressured by a stronger greenback and diminished safe-haven demand after the Trump–Xi trade truce.
– Oil prices edged higher: Brent crude +0.4 % to US$ 67.63 / bbl; WTI +0.3 % to US$ 63.22 / bbl, as OPEC+ confirmed its output freeze through Q1 2026 to stabilise markets.
– China’s market reform: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced plans to include a renminbi trading counter in the Mainland–Hong Kong Stock Connect, expanding RMB offshore liquidity and deepening capital-market integration.
– U.S. government shutdown tied the record 35-day duration, delaying federal data releases and complicating the Fed’s ability to assess inflation dynamics.
– Microsoft confirmed a major US$ 15 billion investment in the UAE through 2029, after securing U.S. export licenses for NVIDIA AI chips, strengthening its Middle East cloud and data-infrastructure strategy.
– Public sentiment shift: A national poll showed 47 % of Americans now view the U.S. trade deficit as an “economic emergency,” underscoring populist pressure ahead of the 2026 midterms.
– European earnings season disappointed, with several banks and industrials missing estimates, reinforcing investor caution across cyclical sectors.
– Bitcoin dipped below US$ 106 000 (−2 %), extending its weekly slide as dollar strength and risk aversion weighed on digital assets.
– Bond yields stabilised: U.S. 10-year held near 4.03 %, Germany’s Bund ~2.59 %, Japan’s JGB ~0.91 %, while traders priced in only a 20 % probability of another Fed cut in December.
Companies.
+) Global equities fell broadly as risk-off sentiment returned following a series of mixed earnings reports and rising concerns over stretched valuations. The STOXX 600 declined –1.4%, the S&P 500 –0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite –0.8%, snapping a three-day advance.
+) Asian markets retreated from multi-month highs as profit-taking emerged; Japan’s Nikkei 225 –0.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng –0.7%, and China’s CSI 300 –0.5%, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak export data.
+) The U.S. Dollar Index hit 99.4, its highest in three months, while U.S. 10-year yields rose to 4.11% as markets priced out near-term Fed cuts.
+) Wall Street bank chiefs, including those from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, warned of a potential 10–15% correction in equities due to overheating AI valuations and narrowing market breadth.
+) Volatility rose as option-hedging demand increased; the VIX Index climbed to 17.8, its highest level in two weeks.
+) Commodities traded mixed: Gold steadied at US$ 4,000/oz, while Brent crude slipped –0.8% to US$ 65.7/bbl as investors reassessed demand expectations.
+) Sterling weakened to its lowest level since April 2025 (US$ 1.21) ahead of the U.K. budget announcement, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves signaled possible tax increases to control borrowing.
+) Credit markets saw mild spread widening amid heavier corporate issuance and higher risk premia, though liquidity remained ample.
+) The lack of official U.S. economic data due to the government shutdown kept focus on private-sector indicators and corporate earnings as primary market drivers.
+) Attention shifted to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), and Qualys Inc. (QLYS) after their latest results and forward guidance shaped sentiment across the technology sector.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | Surpassed expectations with strong data-center performance; guided Q4 revenue above estimates, reinforcing AI-chip leadership. | Q3 Revenue: US$ 6.72 bn (+14% YoY). EPS: US$ 1.04 (vs est 0.98). Q4 Revenue Guidance: ~US$ 9.6 bn (vs est 9.15 bn). Gross Margin: 54.5%. |
| Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | Reported record revenue growth from government contracts but faced valuation pressure; shares fell after hours. | Revenue: US$ 1.18 bn (+63% YoY). EPS: US$ 0.21 (vs est 0.19). Operating Margin: 28%. Stock: –7.5% post-market. |
| Qualys Inc. (QLYS) | Beat earnings expectations with resilient cybersecurity demand; raised Q4 revenue guidance. | Revenue: US$ 169.9 m (+10% YoY). EPS: US$ 1.86 (vs est 1.56). Q4 Revenue Guidance: US$ 173 m. |
| Pfizer Inc. (PFE) | Posted weaker-than-expected results amid falling vaccine demand, offset partially by oncology growth. | Revenue: US$ 15.4 bn (–2% YoY). EPS: US$ 0.68 (vs est 0.71). FY Guidance: Maintained at US$ 2.10–2.20 EPS. |
| Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) | Delivered its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, driven by cost optimization and delivery growth. | Revenue: US$ 10.9 bn (+16% YoY). Adj. EBITDA: US$ 1.4 bn (vs est 1.2 bn). Net Income: US$ 92 m. |
General
Global equities retreat as valuation concerns and profit-taking weigh on sentiment
Global stock markets pulled back following a strong start to November, as investors reassessed stretched valuations amid rising volatility. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, while European indices also weakened after cautious remarks from major U.S. bank CEOs who warned of a potential 10–15% correction. Market breadth narrowed as investors rotated from growth stocks into defensives ahead of key macro releases.
Oil prices slip on oversupply fears despite OPEC+ output freeze
Brent crude retreated to around USD 63.1 per barrel as traders focused on softening demand indicators and rising inventories in the U.S. The OPEC+ decision to pause production hikes through Q1 2026 did little to calm oversupply concerns, with analysts noting that “the market sees more oil than demand right now.”
Gold falls over 1% as dollar strengthens and rate-cut hopes fade
Spot gold dropped to USD 3,940/oz, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations of further Federal Reserve easing in 2025. The Dollar Index (DXY) touched 99.5, its highest since July, while Treasury yields held steady near 4.1%, signaling investor caution ahead of upcoming private payroll data.
Automakers urge U.S. to renew USMCA amid trade and supply-chain risk
Executives from General Motors, Toyota, and Tesla called on Washington to extend the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) beyond its 2026 review deadline, warning that uncertainty could delay USD 20 billion in North American investment commitments. Analysts noted the appeal reflects rising auto-sector dependence on integrated regional supply chains for EV components.
U.S. government shutdown extends into fourth week, triggering aviation warnings
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned of possible partial airspace closures as staffing shortages worsen due to the prolonged shutdown. Airline stocks fell between 3–5%, with Delta Air Lines and United leading declines. Economists estimate the closure has already shaved 0.2–0.3 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth.
AMD beats on revenue but rising AI chip costs raise margin concerns
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported Q3 earnings ahead of estimates, projecting Q4 revenue growth of 8–10% on strong AI-chip demand. However, analysts flagged rising capital expenditure and cost pressures that may challenge profitability in 2026. The stock rose 4% in early trade before paring gains.
China’s services PMI expands modestly while manufacturing remains weak
China’s Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.3 for October, extending its expansionary run, though the manufacturing PMI stayed below 50. The mixed data reinforced the view that the country’s recovery remains uneven, relying on stimulus measures and modest consumer rebound rather than broad-based industrial growth.
Upcoming News
Midweek trading is expected to be dominated by critical labour and services-sector data releases from the United States, as investors seek confirmation that the economy is maintaining resilience amid the Federal Reserve’s recent pivot toward easing. The spotlight will be on the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Services PMI, both of which serve as timely indicators of private-sector strength given the ongoing freeze in official government data due to the partial shutdown. A softer ADP print or signs of slowing in the services PMI could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain an accommodative stance well into early 2026, keeping Treasury yields under pressure and the U.S. dollar on the defensive.
Across the Asia-Pacific region, markets are digesting mixed signals. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision earlier in the week to hold rates but adopt a dovish tone has kept the AUD subdued, while Chinese equity markets continue to benefit from optimism surrounding renewed U.S.–China trade cooperation. Investors remain focused on supply-chain sectors and commodities as early beneficiaries of tariff relief and improved bilateral sentiment. In Japan, the yen has strengthened modestly ahead of the release of household spending data and continued speculation about a potential adjustment to the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve policy following recent inflation firmness.
In Europe, the tone is steadier, with markets awaiting the final Eurozone Composite PMI and further remarks from European Central Bank officials. While the inflation outlook continues to ease, policymakers remain cautious about declaring victory, and attention is shifting to next week’s industrial output figures for confirmation of a bottoming trend. The Bank of England remains in blackout mode ahead of Thursday’s policy announcement, leaving sterling range-bound and sentiment tightly linked to U.S. data outcomes.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇺🇸 United States | ADP Employment Change (Oct) | 🔴 High — key early signal for U.S. labour-market momentum |
| 🇺🇸 United States | ISM Services PMI (Oct) | 🔴 High — leading gauge of services inflation and demand |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Composite PMI Final (Oct) | 🟠 Medium — confirms regional business-cycle stability |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Household Spending (Sep) | 🟠 Medium — indicator of consumer strength ahead of BoJ review |
| 🇨🇳 China | Foreign Exchange Reserves (Oct) | 🟡 Low–Medium — insight into PBoC’s currency-management activity |
| 🌍 Global | ECB and Fed officials’ speeches | 🔴 High — forward guidance shaping global yield expectations |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its advance above 100.0, marking a new three-month high, as traders priced out expectations for another early-2026 rate cut. A broad risk-off mood and stronger U.S. yields underpinned demand for the greenback across major pairs.
- EUR/USD: fell sharply to 150, its weakest since mid-July, pressured by weak Eurozone PMI and diverging yield spreads.
- GBP/USD: slid to 307 after U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves signalled tighter post-budget fiscal discipline, reinforcing growth concerns.
- USD/JPY: surged to 2, the yen’s lowest in four months, as Japanese officials voiced “high urgency” over FX volatility but stopped short of intervention.
- AUD/USD: dropped to 653 following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold rates at 3.60 % while warning of “sticky inflation.”
- USD/CAD: firmed to 410, reflecting yield differentials and softer crude prices.
Analysis:
The dollar’s strength reflected global risk aversion and policy divergence. The yen’s decline underscores widening rate gaps, while Europe’s currencies remain under pressure from sluggish growth and softer data. AUD and CAD weakness highlight commodity-linked vulnerability to a stronger USD environment.
Metals
Precious metals declined under the weight of a firmer dollar, while industrial metals paused after last week’s record highs.
- Gold: –1.3 % → US$ 3,945/oz, breaking below the $3,950 support zone.
- Silver: –1.1 % → US$ 46.2/oz, mirroring gold’s decline.
- Copper: flat near US$ 11,000/ton, consolidating as traders assessed China’s latest PMI contraction.
Analysis:
Gold’s retreat signals profit-taking and diminishing safe-haven demand amid a surging dollar. Industrial metals held steady on structural supply shortages, though fading Chinese activity data capped further upside.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Equity sentiment turned defensive, with global indices closing mixed to lower as higher yields and a stronger dollar pressured valuations.
- S&P 500: –0.4 % → 6,858, extending Monday’s pullback.
- Nasdaq 100: –0.6 % → 22,950, led lower by AI and cloud-software profit-taking.
- Dow Jones: –0.3 % → 46,640, dragged by energy and financials.
- Nikkei 225: –0.7 % → 50,870, as export-sector weakness offset stimulus optimism.
- FTSE 100: –0.8 % → 9,670, weighed by mining and materials stocks as metals corrected.
Analysis:
Equities extended their consolidation phase as investors weighed valuation risks against policy uncertainty. The stronger dollar and rising yields pressured global risk assets, though Japan’s index remains structurally supported by liquidity and fiscal stimulus.
Crypto Markets
Digital assets continued to slide, tracking global risk aversion and dollar strength.
- Bitcoin (BTC): –3.9 % → US$ 103,200, testing new multi-month lows.
- Ethereum (ETH): –4.5 % → US$ 3,660, weighed by profit-taking and falling DeFi volumes.
- Altcoins: broad declines of 4–6 %; total crypto-market cap slipped to US$ 3.48 trillion.
Analysis:
Crypto markets remain under pressure as rising yields and dollar strength curb speculative appetite. Institutional inflows have slowed, and the sector’s correlation with equity volatility has strengthened. Hong Kong’s recent announcement of a tokenisation pilot offers medium-term optimism but has yet to lift sentiment.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
