Market Snapshot November 4th 2025

Heads Up! Shutdown Records

 

Data (31.10 – 01.11)

– Asian equities advanced, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index +0.63 %, driven by optimism over the U.S.–China trade truce and resilient AI-sector momentum. Japan’s Nikkei gained +0.8 %, while South Korea’s KOSPI rose +0.5 %.

– U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a three-month high near 99.9, as traders scaled back expectations for further Fed rate cuts following hawkish remarks from several FOMC officials.

– Global factory data remained weak: China’s October PMI at 49.0 and South Korea’s export orders declined further, highlighting persistent demand softness despite easing tariff tensions.

– Oil prices edged higher, supported by OPEC+’s decision to delay its production increase to Q1 2026 and stronger post-deal trade flows. Brent crude rose +0.7 % to US$ 67.45 / bbl; WTI +0.6 % to US$ 63.12 / bbl.

– Gold rebounded above US$ 4 000 / oz (+0.8 %) on renewed safe-haven demand as the U.S. government shutdown persisted into week 5, limiting official data releases.

– Canadian equities (S&P/TSX futures +0.32 %) gained early support from firming commodity prices and optimism on global trade recovery.

– U.S. markets opened cautiously after the previous week’s record highs, with narrow breadth: mega-cap techs lifted the Nasdaq (+0.4 %), while mid-caps and cyclicals underperformed.

– Valuation concerns emerged in the AI-tech complex as analysts warned of “bubble-like” multiples amid record capex cycles from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta.

– Global investors watched for the “TACO trade” effect — tariff easing combined with capital inflows — as the Trump–Xi framework was expected to bolster near-term sentiment but cap upside on stretched valuations.

– Geopolitical backdrop: lingering uncertainty over North Korean missile tests and continued U.S. fiscal gridlock kept volatility moderate but supported demand for Treasuries.

 

Companies.

+) Global equities opened the new week higher as investors reacted positively to progress in U.S.–China trade talks and rising optimism over AI-driven growth. The S&P 500 gained +0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite +0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average –0.1%, as cyclical sectors lagged.
+) The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to 99.2, its highest level in three months, while 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.08% as traders scaled back bets on near-term Fed rate cuts.
+) Semiconductors and AI megacaps continued to lead: Nvidia, AMD, and Palantir all advanced amid heavy derivatives trading and strong investor demand for AI infrastructure exposure.
+) OPEC+ announced a pause in its 2026 production hike, lifting Brent crude prices to US$ 66.1/bbl, while gold rebounded above US$ 4,000/oz as traders sought balance between inflation hedging and risk-on rotation.
+) In Europe, equities were little changed as the STOXX 600 +0.2%, led by gains in energy and industrials; U.K. manufacturing output hit a 12-month high, supported by export recovery.
+) Asian markets traded higher: Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.7%, Korea’s KOSPI +0.6%, and China’s CSI 300 +0.4% after improved sentiment from tariff suspension headlines.
+) In India, the Nifty 50 held above 25,760, while the Sensex ended flat as investors booked profits after a strong October rally.
+) Corporate credit spreads narrowed modestly as global bond issuance remained robust and investor risk appetite improved.
+) Derivatives activity stayed elevated, with traders increasing exposure to short-term Nasdaq and S&P options ahead of the upcoming U.S. employment report.
+) Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with focus shifting to upcoming earnings from Palantir (PLTR), AMD (AMD), and Novo Nordisk (NVO) later in the week.

 

** Company Earnings Reports, 03.11.2025

 

Company Highlights Key Metrics / Notes
Aon plc (AON) Reported solid Q3 results on higher advisory margins and expense control; reaffirmed FY outlook. Adjusted EPS: US$ 3.05 (vs est 2.89). Revenue: US$ 3.29 bn (+6% YoY). Operating Margin: 24.3%.
Chevron Corp. (CVX) Posted better-than-expected results on stronger upstream output; downstream weakness offset by higher LNG volumes. Adjusted EPS: US$ 1.85 (vs 1.66 est). Revenue: US$ 50.1 bn. Free Cash Flow: US$ 6.7 bn.
W.W. Grainger Inc. (GWW) Surpassed earnings expectations with steady industrial demand and pricing resilience. Adjusted EPS: US$ 10.21 (vs 9.93 est). Revenue: US$ 4.34 bn (+8% YoY).
Magna International Inc. (MGA) Auto-supplier beat consensus on strong EV-parts demand; raised FY 2025 outlook. Adjusted EPS: US$ 1.33 (vs 1.24 est). Revenue: US$ 11.4 bn (+5%). FY EPS guide: US$ 6.10 – 6.25.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Scheduled to report post-market; investors expect strong government-contract growth and AI-platform expansion. Est. EPS: US$ 0.08. Est. Revenue: US$ 671 m (+23% YoY).
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Due to report after close; markets expect strong data-center performance and AI-chip guidance. Est. EPS: US$ 1.04. Est. Revenue: US$ 6.7 bn (+14% YoY).

 

General

Global equities rally on renewed U.S.–China optimism and AI-driven momentum
Global stocks began the week higher as optimism surrounding a U.S.–China trade truce and renewed interest in AI-related partnerships boosted risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.6%, led by gains in South Korea and Japan, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended their advance on optimism over upcoming U.S. tech earnings.

Dollar strengthens to three-month high as markets scale back Fed cut bets
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a three-month high near 99.4, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish Fed comments. Traders trimmed expectations for a December rate cut to below 70%, while the euro and British pound weakened modestly. The yen remained under pressure near 154/USD, reflecting widening U.S.–Japan yield differentials.

OPEC+ signals small output increase for December but pauses further hikes
OPEC+ agreed to a modest 137,000 bpd production increase for December while announcing a pause in supply hikes through Q1 2026 to manage risks of a potential oversupply next year. Oil prices stabilized around USD 63.8 per barrel, supported by resilient demand in Asia and ongoing sanctions limiting Russian output.

Tech sector gains on major AI partnership and M&A revival
 The Nasdaq Composite outperformed after Amazon announced a USD 38 billion partnership with OpenAI to expand cloud-based AI infrastructure. The deal reignited investor optimism around the sector’s growth outlook, lifting semiconductors and large-cap tech names despite rising capital expenditure concerns.

Gold stabilizes near USD 4,000 as safe-haven demand moderates
 After recent volatility, spot gold traded in a tight range around USD 3,995–4,010/oz, supported by steady physical demand from Asia and central banks. Analysts noted that while the metal’s upside is capped by a stronger dollar, geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide medium-term support.

Manufacturing data underscore global growth fragility
 Factory surveys across Asia and Europe continued to show subdued activity, with China’s manufacturing PMI expected to stay below 50. Meanwhile, U.S. private employment data will take on added importance as the government shutdown delays key official releases, leaving investors without near-term macro visibility.

 

Upcoming News

Global markets begin Tuesday on a cautious yet data-driven note as investors digest early signals from manufacturing surveys and position ahead of key mid-week events including the U.S. ADP Employment Report and Bank of England’s rate decision. With the Federal Reserve’s rate cut still reverberating through asset classes, traders are recalibrating expectations for the pace and coordination of global monetary easing. U.S. Treasury yields remain subdued while equities hover near monthly highs, supported by softer inflation expectations and improving risk appetite.

In the Asia-Pacific region, focus turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement. Markets are split between a continued hold and a dovish recalibration to align with the Fed’s easing bias. A softer tone from Governor Michele Bullock could weigh on the Australian dollar, while any surprise shift in forward guidance would ripple through commodity-linked currencies. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI released Monday showed modest expansion, providing tentative evidence that industrial activity is stabilizing amid improving U.S.–China trade sentiment.

Across Europe, investors are closely watching the latest Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) data and commentary from European Central Bank officials for clues on whether slowing inflation will accelerate discussions around rate normalization in 2026. In the U.K., the pound remains steady as traders await Thursday’s BoE meeting, where policymakers are expected to hold rates but potentially revise growth forecasts downward amid weak domestic demand.

Region / Country Event / Indicator Expected Impact
🇦🇺 Australia RBA Interest-Rate Decision 🔴 High — potential dovish tone aligning with Fed’s easing bias
🇪🇺 Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) 🟠 Medium — indicator of cost trends and inflation outlook
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders (Sep) 🟠 Medium — gauges industrial momentum in the EU’s largest economy
🇨🇳 China Services PMI (Oct) 🟠 Medium — follow-through to manufacturing strength and trade activity
🇺🇸 United States Factory Orders (Sep) 🟠 Medium — secondary indicator of industrial health before ISM Services
🌍 Global Central Bank Speeches (ECB, Fed officials) 🔴 High — tone-setting for market sentiment midweek

 

G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)

G7 FX

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to 99.25, its highest since early August, as investors dialed back bets on additional Fed rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that December’s decision would depend on incoming data. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to obscure key macro indicators, further supporting defensive dollar positioning.

Analysis:
 Dollar demand remains broad-based, sustained by higher yields and caution over global trade tensions. The euro and sterling remain under pressure amid subdued growth signals, while the yen continues to trade defensively as Japan’s yield curve remains capped by policy measures.

 

Metals

Precious metals stabilized following last week’s volatility, while base metals eased modestly from recent highs.

Analysis:
 Gold’s stability shows continued hedging interest amid Fed policy uncertainty, even as the stronger dollar limits upside. Copper’s pullback signals consolidation after its recent record-setting rally, though structural supply tightness should maintain long-term support.

 

Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)

Global equity markets traded mixed to slightly lower as risk appetite cooled amid dollar strength and weak China factory data.

Analysis:
 Equity markets are consolidating following a strong October performance. U.S. indices faced minor profit-taking while Japan remained the standout performer on strong capital inflows. Investors are now focusing on upcoming central-bank commentary and potential trade-related policy shifts.

 

Crypto Markets

Cryptocurrencies plunged sharply as macro headwinds and fading institutional inflows triggered a broad sell-off.

Analysis:
 Crypto markets extended declines as investors reassessed risk exposure following Powell’s hawkish remarks and renewed U.S.–China tariff rhetoric. Without supportive macro or regulatory news, sentiment remains fragile. However, Hong Kong’s announcement to ease crypto trading rules and launch a tokenization pilot offered a medium-term positive, underscoring Asia’s growing role in digital-asset innovation.

 

This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen

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