US – China eased down the pressure
Data
– Global bond markets rallied strongly in October, with 10-year yields in the U.S., Germany, and Japan falling roughly 30 bps over the month — the sharpest monthly decline since mid-2023 — as investors priced in synchronized monetary easing and lower inflation risk.
– The Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday was accompanied by a cautious tone, with Chair Powell stressing that another cut in December is “far from assured,” signaling a shift toward data-dependence amid limited visibility from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
– The Trump–Xi summit in Seoul produced a trade truce: the U.S. agreed to reduce average tariffs on Chinese goods from 57 % to 47 %, while China pledged to resume large-scale soybean purchases and maintain rare-earth exports for at least 12 months.
– U.S. labor data showed resilience: Initial jobless claims fell to 219 K (from 232 K prior), reinforcing confidence in the labor market despite fiscal uncertainty.
– U.S. equities retreated after consecutive record highs: the S&P 500 −0.99 %, Nasdaq −1.57 %, and Dow Jones −0.23 %, as profit-taking hit large-cap techs following massive AI-sector gains earlier in the week.
– Meta Platforms announced plans to issue up to US$ 30 billion in bonds to fund data-center expansion and AI investment, drawing investor scrutiny over rising leverage across Big Tech.
– U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to around 99.65, while the Japanese yen weakened past ¥154 / USD, following diverging policy signals between the Fed and Bank of Japan.
– China’s market outlook improved modestly after the trade truce, with foreign investors eyeing select re-entry opportunities in manufacturing and green technology sectors.
– Gulf equities extended gains: Saudi Tadawul +0.2 %, led by ACWA Power (+1.5 %), supported by strong regional earnings and improved global risk sentiment.
– Strategists cautioned that, despite the October bond rally, structural risks remain — notably high sovereign debt, sticky service inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty that could trigger renewed volatility into Q4.
Companies.
+) Global equities declined as investors digested a wave of mixed tech earnings and shifting expectations for future Federal Reserve policy guidance.
+) The S&P 500 fell –1.0%, the Nasdaq Composite –1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average –0.5%, snapping a three-day winning streak led by large-cap profit-taking.
+) Tech names including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta pulled back after recent strong sessions, while traders rotated into defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare.
+) The FTSE 100 lost 0.6% to close at 9,612.4, dragged by energy and consumer stocks; continental Europe saw a similar soft tone across the STOXX 600 (–0.7%).
+) In Asia, equities traded mostly lower: Japan’s Nikkei 225 –0.4%, South Korea’s KOSPI –0.6%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng –0.3%, as investors booked profits ahead of key U.S. earnings.
+) Bond yields fell globally, with the U.S. 10-year yield easing to 3.96%, marking the biggest monthly decline since 2023 amid rising expectations for a rate-cut cycle in early 2026.
+) Oil prices slipped to US$ 64.6/bbl (Brent) as traders reassessed supply outlooks following U.S.–China trade tariff adjustments; gold firmed modestly near US$ 3,975/oz.
+) The U.S. Dollar Index weakened further to 97.6, reflecting a dovish reaction to the Fed’s statement and softer macro data from jobless claims.
+) The India Sensex –0.7% and Nifty 50 –0.6% declined amid cautious global sentiment and profit-taking in financials.
+) Market attention centered on Apple and Amazon’s earnings releases, which investors viewed as key catalysts to gauge consumer resilience and tech sector momentum heading into November.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Apple Inc. (AAPL) | Reported record quarterly results driven by iPhone 17 and services growth; guided cautiously for Q1 amid FX headwinds. | Revenue: US$ 102.5 bn (+8% YoY). EPS: US$ 1.85 (vs 1.77 est). Services Revenue: US$ 23.4 bn (+12%). |
| Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) | Beat expectations on both revenue and profit; AWS momentum and Prime Day spill-over boosted margins. | Revenue: US$ 177.8 bn (+13% YoY). EPS: US$ 1.63 (vs 1.58 est). AWS Growth: +17%. |
| Merck & Co. (MRK) | Posted solid results led by oncology and vaccine segments; reaffirmed FY guidance. | EPS: US$ 2.36 (+48% YoY). Revenue: US$ 16.3 bn (+5%). |
| Mastercard Inc. (MA) | Exceeded estimates on resilient consumer spending and travel recovery; raised FY guidance. | EPS: US$ 4.34 (vs 4.31 est). Revenue: US$ 8.6 bn (+11%). |
| Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) | Delivered a substantial earnings beat driven by weight-loss drug demand; boosted FY earnings outlook. | EPS: US$ 6.07 (vs 6.02 est). Revenue: US$ 12.8 bn (+28%). FY EPS guide: US$ 27.0–27.5. |
General
Global equities retreat as Fed caution and weak tech earnings weigh on sentiment
Global stock markets fell sharply as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and disappointing results from Meta Platforms and Microsoft triggered risk aversion. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.6%, the S&P 500 lost 1.0%, and the Dow Jones slipped 0.2%. Investors pared expectations for additional Fed easing after Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank remains data-dependent and is “not on a preset course.”
Global bond markets rebound strongly amid easing inflation expectations
October marked one of the best months for global bonds in nearly two years as yields across the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Japan declined sharply. The rally was supported by softer inflation prints and reduced issuance pressure. The U.S. 10-year yield fell below 4.05%, while German bund yields hit their lowest level since early 2024, reflecting renewed confidence in central-bank credibility.
China regains investor attention following U.S.–China trade truce
Following the Trump–Xi meeting, markets welcomed early signs of détente as both nations agreed to partially roll back tariffs and resume U.S. agricultural exports to China. Analysts described China as “more investible” than at any point since 2021, though fund managers remained cautious about policy transparency and structural reform risks.
U.S. dollar strengthens, yen weakens as policy divergence widens
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose toward 99.0, supported by Fed rhetoric and safe-haven flows. The yen weakened to 150.8 per USD after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose stance, while the euro hovered near 1.17. Commodity currencies were mixed as oil stabilized and gold steadied following sharp earlier moves.
Gold holds firm as investors balance Fed outlook and geopolitical risks
After two sessions of declines, spot gold recovered modestly, trading near USD 3,990/oz, as bargain-hunting offset pressure from the stronger dollar. Analysts noted that physical demand from central banks and Asia remained robust despite short-term profit-taking in futures markets.
AI investment boom intensifies cost pressures on major tech firms
Meta and Microsoft both reported weaker Q3 margins as heavy AI infrastructure spending strained profitability. Meta projected a “notably larger” 2026 capex plan, while Microsoft cited near-record cloud capex. The divergence between soaring AI expectations and slowing revenue growth raised investor concerns over valuation sustainability in the tech sector.
Upcoming News
Global markets close the week on a volatile note as investors digest the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy shift and brace for the results of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. Risk sentiment remains broadly positive following the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut and Chair Jerome Powell’s commitment to supporting growth amid persistent disinflation. However, attention now turns to how global policymakers — particularly in Japan and Europe — will respond to the evolving monetary landscape. U.S. Treasury yields have stabilized after Thursday’s sharp rally, while the U.S. dollar continues to weaken against G10 peers, reflecting repositioning toward higher-risk assets.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) concludes its two-day meeting today, with markets anticipating a subtle tightening in forward guidance or a narrowing of yield-curve-control bands. Governor Kazuo Ueda faces growing pressure to address yen depreciation while balancing domestic inflation that remains slightly above the 2% target. Any hint of a policy adjustment could trigger volatility across Asian bond markets and prompt further yen strengthening after weeks of declines. Meanwhile, Tokyo CPI data released earlier this morning confirmed stable but elevated price growth, reinforcing expectations that the BoJ may prepare the ground for normalization in early 2026.
In Europe, investors will parse the latest Eurozone CPI flash estimates, which are expected to confirm that inflation eased further to around 2.5% year-over-year in October. The combination of subdued price pressures and slowing credit growth strengthens the case for potential ECB rate cuts by mid-2026, aligning Europe with the emerging global easing trend.
Across commodities and FX, sentiment remains constructive: gold continues to hover near multi-month highs on renewed dollar softness, while oil prices trade steady as OPEC+ members signal readiness to maintain current production levels into year-end. Overall, the final trading day of October encapsulates a turning point in global monetary conditions — one where policy divergence narrows, volatility moderates, and investors reposition for a lower-rate environment heading into Q4 earnings season.
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. dollar held near multi-week highs amid cautious risk sentiment and a strong rebound in global yields. The DXY hovered in the high-98s, underpinned by the Federal Reserve’s guarded tone following its recent rate cut and an unexpected uptick in bond yields.
- USD/JPY rose toward 152.4, following the yen’s weakness as Japan’s domestic yields declined in step with broad global bond strength.
- EUR/USD trading near 1.162, pressured by dollar strength and softer Eurozone risk sentiment.
- GBP/USD remained near 1.337, with sterling capped by concerns around slower U.K. growth and elevated inflation.
Analysis:
With U.S. monetary policy flagged as less dovish than expected and bond yields rising, the dollar found support despite the risk-on mood elsewhere. The yen remains under pressure from yield dynamics and equity inflows into Japan. The euro and pound continue to trade within tight ranges, awaiting fresh catalysts.
Metals
Metals markets saw a mixed performance: safe-havens gained, industrials surged.
- Gold rose ~2% to around US$ 4,003/oz, underpinned by the Fed’s rate cut and ongoing trade/tension uncertainties.
- Copper hit a record high near US$ 11,200/ton, buoyed by supply-side constraints, fund flows and the weaker dollar.
Analysis:
Gold benefitted from rate-cut expectations and lingering geopolitical uncertainty, while copper’s sharp rally reflects structural supply concerns and optimism about global growth — a clear divergence between precious and industrial metals.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Equity markets were mixed to slightly positive as inflation, policy and trade news shaped sentiment.
- S. tech shares showed strain; the Meta Platforms drop weighed on the Nasdaq 100 (-1.6% intraday) amid profit-taking.
- The Nikkei 225 slipped ~0.4% as regional uncertainty weighed, despite earlier strength.
- In Europe, the FTSE 100 gained modestly on energy/commodity stocks as commodity prices rose.
Analysis:
Markets reflected investor caution: strong signals from metals and commodities contrasted with weakness in tech and regional equities. The risk appetite remains intact but is tempered by concerns over earnings, policy direction and global growth.
Crypto Markets
Cryptocurrencies moved cautiously, tracking broader risk-asset swings rather than leading them.
- Bitcoin (BTC) held near US$ 113,000, supported by the risk-on backdrop but lacked breakout momentum.
- Ethereum (ETH) and major altcoins traded modestly; regulatory and macro headwinds continued to exert restraint.
Analysis:
Crypto remains tied to “beta” risk-assets: it benefits when risk returns and suffers during hiccups. With no standout catalyst today, crypto’s gains were muted and consolidation likely.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
